(MOSCOW, RUSSIA) \u2013 The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has been forced to drastically scale back the annual Victory Day parade on Moscow’s Red Square, cancelling all displays of tanks, missile systems and military cadets, in what analysts describe as a humiliating admission that the war in Ukraine has gutted Russia’s military capacity and left even the capital vulnerable to potential strikes.<\/p>\n
The 9th of May parade, commemorating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in the Second World War, is the most significant date in the Russian state calendar. In previous years, Putin used the event to showcase military hardware, describing it as “a demonstration of our growing defence capabilities and that we are capable of protecting our people, our state, and our wealth.”<\/p>\n
This year, the Russian Defence Ministry confirmed that no tanks, missile systems, or cadets would participate. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed the Kyiv regime, which he falsely asserted is losing ground on the battlefield daily, has “launched full scale terrorist activity” and that “all measures are being taken to minimise the danger.”<\/p>\n
Military analysts have characterised the announcement as an extraordinary revelation. “This is the most important day in the Russian calendar. It was only a few years ago that Putin announced his parade as a display of military hardware, hailing the power of Russian military to its enemies. He went on to say this is not sabre rattling, this is a demonstration of our growing defence capabilities. When you look at those statements from Putin himself, you conclude that he cannot do that now,” one analyst observed.<\/p>\n
Previous Victory Day parades during the Ukraine conflict had been scaled back modestly, but the complete removal of armour, missiles, and massed marching soldiers leaves the event hollowed of its traditional content. Analysts questioned what substantive elements would remain.<\/p>\n
“The reason given by Dmitry Peskov is potential terrorist activity. That is a euphemism we know from Russia now,” the assessment continued. Ukraine has been “incredibly successful at striking targets deep in Russia up to 1,500 kilometres, destroying a lot of Russia’s oil industry and only earlier this week the Ukrainian military claimed they had destroyed over half of Russia’s air defence systems.”<\/p>\n
Moscow is heavily fortified with S-300, S-400 and Pantsir air defence systems, yet the Kremlin’s decision suggests a profound lack of confidence in their reliability. “This seems to be an admission that Putin is not confident that they will work,” the analyst stated. “It is a massive humiliation for him and a recognition that things are going really badly.”<\/p>\n
The scale of Russian military losses underscores the predicament. Russia has lost over 5,000 tanks in the conflict. The inability to assemble even a modest column of armour for the parade, using the excuse that they cannot be protected, was described as “incredible.”<\/p>\n
“Not to be able to put a few tanks on parade and using the inference that they cannot protect them is incredible. This is an unbelievably important statement less than two weeks before the parade is due to take place,” the analyst noted.<\/p>\n
The Victory Day parade holds a position in Russian national consciousness comparable to Trooping the Colour for the King’s birthday in the United Kingdom. “One cannot imagine, it is like in the UK cancelling Trooping the Colour for the King’s birthday because we did not think we could protect it. It is just inconceivable.”<\/p>\n
The announcement arrives amid a confluence of setbacks for the Russian dictator. Frontline forces are being pushed back. Ukrainian deep strikes by precision drones and missiles are having a profound effect. Over half of Russian oil production has been either destroyed or stopped, at the very moment when the Kremlin had hoped to profit from high oil prices.<\/p>\n
“Whereas Ukraine is upping its production of drones and missiles to the extent it is now offering to help Middle East countries protect themselves against Iranian drones, it is such a change in fortunes,” the analysis noted.<\/p>\n
Domestic dissent is mounting. Russian war bloggers, traditionally fervent supporters of the regime, have begun to criticise the dictator. Senior generals are reportedly voicing discontent. State media and newspapers are acknowledging an economy in freefall and soaring fuel prices far worse than those experienced in Western nations.<\/p>\n
“Putin might now be ready to talk ceasefire and to talk peace deals. His army is going backwards. He cannot even mount the most important parade in the annual calendar of the Russian state. He cannot hide the fact from the people. There is no way that he can cover this up as anything other than a potential strategic loss for Russia,” the analyst concluded.<\/p>\n
A second assessment focused on the security implications. Ukraine now possesses the unquestionable capability to strike Moscow. The ability to hit key national infrastructure inside Russia, which is assumed to be protected by air defence systems, suggests Ukraine has discovered methods to circumvent those defences.<\/p>\n
“That is what must be the message coming out of the Kremlin. Despite the fact they have lots of S-300s and S-400s and other air defence systems around Moscow and particularly around anywhere Putin might be, the suggestion now is that they are not sure that they will work. They are not sure that they can protect them. That is an unbelievable position to be in. An unbelievable admission coming out of the Kremlin,” the assessment stated.<\/p>\n
Approximately 700 guests are still expected to attend, drawn from the dictator’s dwindling circle of allies, including the president of Belarus, representatives of other Russian client states, and potentially senior leadership from North Korea and Iran. The foreign minister of Iran visited Russia only days prior. Their security, analysts suggest, can no longer be guaranteed.<\/p>\n
“Ukraine certainly now has the capability to hit Moscow. That is without a shadow of a doubt,” the analysis stated.<\/p>\n
The contrast between the two warring nations’ technological trajectories is stark. “Ukraine is now exporting as many drones as it is using to the outside world. You look at one country that is absolutely on the front foot with military technology that is absolutely the best in the world that everybody else wants, and then you look at Russia that cannot even put a few old tanks on a parade ground and cannot hide the fact,” an observer noted.<\/p>\n
The Kremlin has suggested screens will display footage of soldiers in action on the front line. Observers remain sceptical. “We all know on the front line at the moment the Russians are getting a real kicking and have been pushed back. Do not expect to see any real footage from the front line on the 9th of May.”<\/p>\n
The final assessment was unequivocal. “This is a seminal moment. If Putin cannot put a bit of hardware on the streets of his capital city on the most important day of the year, then something is seriously wrong.”<\/p>\n
Footage of the report was released by The Sun.<\/p>\n