(UKRAINE) – Russia\u2019s ability to project power abroad is weakening as Ukraine continues sustained strikes on its energy infrastructure and naval assets, according to former UK national security adviser Lord Peter Ricketts.<\/p>\n
Speaking on Frontline<\/em>, Ricketts said that nearly four years into the full scale invasion, the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain influence beyond Russia\u2019s borders. He added that the Kremlin leader appears more isolated as Ukraine degrades Russia\u2019s capacity to produce fuel and challenges its Black Sea Fleet.<\/p>\n Ricketts said Ukrainian attacks on petrochemical facilities have reduced Russia\u2019s ability to produce petrol and jet fuel, contributing to declining exports. He added that Russia\u2019s so called shadow fleet is becoming more vulnerable, with Western countries considering stronger action against vessels used to evade sanctions.<\/p>\n He noted that while higher oil and gas prices have provided Moscow with short term relief, the broader economic situation remains strained. At the same time, Ukraine\u2019s campaign against energy targets is limiting Russia\u2019s ability to benefit fully from those price increases.<\/p>\n Ricketts said that despite continued large scale drone and missile attacks by Russia, including a recent barrage of more than 300 drones and ballistic missiles, there is no indication that Moscow is seeking a negotiated settlement. He described the attacks as evidence that the Kremlin intends to continue its campaign.<\/p>\n He also pointed to the diversion of Western air defence resources to the Middle East, particularly during tensions involving Iran, as a factor that may benefit Russia in the short term. Advanced systems such as Patriot missiles used in the Gulf are not available for delivery to Ukraine, and production remains slow.<\/p>\n On Putin\u2019s relative silence in recent weeks, Ricketts said the Russian leader is likely observing developments in the Middle East while avoiding attention to Russia\u2019s limited ability to support allies such as Iran. He added that Moscow is also seeking to preserve relations with Gulf states.<\/p>\n Domestically, Ricketts said Russia faces ongoing economic pressure and a lack of positive developments to present to its population. He suggested that Putin has little incentive to draw attention to setbacks, including political changes in Europe that reduce Moscow\u2019s influence.<\/p>\n He described the recent political shift in Hungary, where a long standing ally of the Kremlin lost power, as a significant setback. Hungary had previously been able to delay or block European Union support measures for Ukraine. With that influence reduced, the EU is now expected to move forward more decisively with financial and military support.<\/p>\n Ricketts said the loss of partners in regions such as the Middle East and Latin America has further contributed to Russia\u2019s isolation. He added that China\u2019s engagement with other global actors highlights Moscow\u2019s diminishing importance as a strategic partner.<\/p>\n He warned that recent Russian legislative moves allowing the deployment of forces to protect Russians abroad echo past justifications used in Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014. While he said Russia may lack the capacity for major new operations, such measures send a signal to neighbouring states with Russian minorities.<\/p>\n Ricketts also highlighted increased Russian naval activity around critical undersea infrastructure, including cables and pipelines near UK waters. He said Western governments are now more willing to disclose intelligence on such activities as a deterrent, exposing actions that were previously kept classified.<\/p>\n On Western defence spending, Ricketts said European countries face growing pressure to increase investment while continuing support for Ukraine. He noted that a \u20ac90 billion support package for Kyiv is expected to proceed following political changes in Hungary, alongside additional national contributions.<\/p>\n He added that Ukraine\u2019s battlefield experience has positioned it as a leader in drone warfare and counter drone technology. Ukrainian systems developed during the war are now attracting interest from countries in the Middle East, where similar threats are emerging.<\/p>\n Ricketts said this shift allows Ukraine to present itself not only as a recipient of aid but also as a provider of solutions in modern warfare. He added that this strengthens Kyiv\u2019s diplomatic position and reduces its reliance on external support.<\/p>\n He expressed concern over the reliability of US support, noting that recent policy shifts have forced European countries to take greater responsibility for defence production and coordination. He said this could lead to a more autonomous European security framework within NATO structures.<\/p>\n Ricketts concluded that while the conflict shows no immediate sign of resolution, Russia\u2019s ability to sustain influence is being steadily eroded. He said the war is likely to continue into another fighting season, with Ukraine adapting and expanding its capabilities.<\/p>\n