{"id":913,"date":"2026-04-23T15:07:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T19:07:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jakony.com\/frontpage\/?p=913"},"modified":"2026-04-23T15:07:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T19:07:09","slug":"putin-paralysis-mirrors-gorbachevs-final-years-oxford-academic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jakony.com\/frontpage\/europe\/putin-paralysis-mirrors-gorbachevs-final-years-oxford-academic\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin Paralysis Mirrors Gorbachev\u2019s Final Years – Oxford Academic"},"content":{"rendered":"

(LONDON) \u2013<\/strong>\u00a0A leading Oxford academic has warned that the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin increasingly resembles a spent force, avoiding critical economic decisions as elite discontent and systemic decay erode his authority from within.<\/p>\n

Professor Vlad Mykhnenko of Oxford University, specialising in geography, political economy and sustainable urban development, told Times Radio\u2019s Frontline programme that Putin is postponing painful choices until after the so called parliamentary elections in October. \u201cI feel that because he is a hesitant individual himself as far as I can feel he\u2019s going to try to drag on this thinking until October,\u201d Professor Mykhnenko said.<\/p>\n

Economic Paralysis and Gorbachev Parallels<\/strong><\/p>\n

The academic drew a stark historical parallel that the Kremlin will find deeply unwelcome. \u201cPutin is increasingly becoming to look like Gorbachov in his later years and this is probably not a good comparison in that Gerbachov talked a lot in \u201989 1991 he tried to pull all various levers but the machine was not moving the system was not responding to his commands,\u201d he stated. \u201cSo it was almost he was becoming less relevant if not irrelevant to the system and I think Putin talking about this couple of days about the victories is on the horizon and we all know it\u2019s going to come. It does sound more and more increasingly pathetic and not convincing at all. And none of the pro-war Russian bloggers and other commentators are convinced. They\u2019re thinking he\u2019s really a kind of a spent force and they\u2019re really looking for somebody new.\u201d<\/p>\n

EU Loan Provides Predictability for Ukraine<\/strong><\/p>\n

Professor Mykhnenko welcomed the approval of a 90 billion euro (approximately 97 billion US Dollars) two year loan facility for Ukraine, describing it as vital for budgetary planning. \u201cThis 90 billion two-year loan almost a grant really is a very big deal because it gives Ukraine something that the wartime governments rarely get enough of is predictability and obviously money as well,\u201d he said. \u201cThe real value here is not only the size of the sum it\u2019s 45 billion for 2026 and 45 billion for 2027 but it helps Kyiv to plan salaries, pensions, procurement, the basic state functions beyond the next political wobble in somebody else\u2019s capital.\u201d<\/p>\n

He stressed that Ukraine collects roughly half of its required spending through taxation, funnelling all domestic revenue into the war effort, making external support \u201cclose to economic oxygen.\u201d<\/p>\n

Air Defence and Shifting Dependencies<\/strong><\/p>\n

Addressing concerns over US stockpiles following recent military operations in the Middle East, the professor indicated that Ukraine has diversified its air defence strategy significantly but still relies on high end systems such as the Patriot. \u201cUkraine has come a long way in kind of layered air defense. So you have drones, electronic warfare, decentralized interception systems, and cheaper solutions for cheaper threats. But at the very top end, especially against ballistic missiles, the missiles that go up in space and then come down very fast, Patriot class systems still do things that are very hard to replace quickly,\u201d he explained, noting that using a million dollar interceptor for every threat is not a sustainable business model.<\/p>\n

Energy Crisis Strains Ukraine<\/strong><\/p>\n

The global energy crisis has dealt a significant blow to Ukraine\u2019s economy. Professor Mykhnenko revealed that the central bank cut its growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5 percent to 1.8 percent, with electricity costs now the highest in Europe. \u201cThe system is keeping, Ukraine has kept the system running by the much higher price and with less room for growth,\u201d he said, likening the situation to \u201crunning a marathon with a generator stuck to you.\u201d<\/p>\n

Russian Economy Under Pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n

Professor Mykhnenko dismissed official Russian inflation figures, stating the reality is far worse than the Kremlin admits. \u201cThe Russian central bank rate is about 15 percent. So you can\u2019t really have a low inflation. They have a crazy high interest rate because it doesn\u2019t make a lot of sense,\u201d he said. Citing a Financial Times report referencing Sweden\u2019s military intelligence service, he noted that real inflation is likely closer to 15 percent rather than the official 5.86 percent.<\/p>\n

He highlighted that the Russian government has already exhausted its entire annual deficit spending allocation of 4.6 trillion rubles in the first quarter alone. \u201cSo they have three quarters to run on something else. Some extra borrowing that is not in the budget,\u201d he added, characterising the economy as being \u201cheld together by oil coercion, fear, creative accounting and willingness to treat civilian prosperity as a negotiable luxury.\u201d<\/p>\n

Regarding recent temporary sanctions relief on oil, Professor Mykhnenko stated that while Russia may have gained approximately nine billion extra dollars according to Reuters reports, overall oil and gas revenues for the first quarter remain down 45 percent year on year. \u201cHence 9 billion is not going to really solve all the problems.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lavrov\u2019s Bluster and Kremlin Posturing<\/strong><\/p>\n

On Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov\u2019s recent bullish claim that talks to end the war were not a priority, Professor Mykhnenko suggested this was theatrical. \u201cLavrov\u2019s theatrical confidence is not proof that Russia is comfortable. It\u2019s proof that the Kremlin thinks that delay attrition western fatigue will still serve Russian interest. He needs to sound confident because that\u2019s his job.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ecological Disaster and Domestic Anger<\/strong><\/p>\n

The academic pointed to growing public anger in Russia, fuelled by social media footage of the consequences of Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure. Describing the Black Sea coast near Sochi, Anapa and Adler as \u201ceffectively the best tourist resort in Russia\u201d with a \u201cbeautiful subtropical climate,\u201d he noted that the area now faces an environmental calamity. \u201cYou have this oily rain that just drops everywhere and effectively kills all the vegetation. It\u2019s a horrible situation really and the Russian authorities are keeping that quiet but social media is full of those horrible videos, people shouting obscenities and effectively showing the consequences. The anger frustration is growing.\u201d<\/p>\n

Where Will Change Come From?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Asked whether transformation in Russia would be driven externally or internally, Professor Mykhnenko was unequivocal. \u201cIt will come from inside and it will come from inside the elites. I think it will be more of an internal coup kind of moment rather than a popular uprising, not to mention Ukrainian invasion of Moscow. I would put my money on a kind of elite disunion, some kind of elite fracture, some kind of discussions that the old grandpa is getting on and we need to replace him with somebody a bit more agile.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s Expanding Defence Industrial Base<\/strong><\/p>\n

Concluding on an optimistic note, the professor underscored that Ukraine\u2019s defence industrial complex has grown tenfold and is now capable of producing up to 50 billion dollars worth of weaponry annually. \u201cUkraine only produces about six to seven billions worth of weapons because it doesn\u2019t have the money. The capacity is to be seven times more of everything,\u201d he said. \u201cIt needs investment, financial assistance from the western supporters of Ukraine to fire that military industrial complex fully. Support works and Ukraine support is not charity, it is an investment in one\u2019s defence and also you\u2019re buying time for your own defence.\u201d<\/p>\n

This analysis was provided during an interview on Frontline with Kate Gerbeau, produced by Times Radio.<\/p>\n