(LONDON) – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to place major pressure on both sides, with analysts warning that conditions among Russian forces are deteriorating. Reports indicate that soldiers with serious health problems, including widespread tuberculosis, are now serving in frontline units. This has raised concerns about the general quality and discipline of the Russian military as the conflict enters another difficult winter.
John Lough, Head of Foreign Policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, discussed these issues during an interview on Times Radio. He noted that Russia’s manpower difficulties are not only related to numbers but also to the physical condition of many soldiers now deployed in Ukraine. Observers believe that the use of recruits with criminal histories and long term medical problems reflects the increasing strain on the Russian system.
At the same time, Ukraine is preparing for a winter of heavy air strikes. President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to push for more air defence support during his visit to Paris, where he will meet French President Emmanuel Macron. Ukraine urgently needs more interceptor missiles to block Russia’s growing use of ballistic attacks on cities and critical infrastructure.
Air defence capability remains a major focus. Ukraine is seeking up to twenty five Patriot missile systems, though the chances of receiving such a number in the short term are low. Nonetheless, even limited improvements could help reduce the impact of the winter bombardment. Russia hopes that large scale attacks will weaken morale among Ukrainian civilians, but analysts believe the country’s determination remains strong.
Power outages have already become common in major cities, including Kyiv, where electricity has been cut for up to sixteen hours a day. Eastern regions are facing even greater difficulties as strikes on power infrastructure continue. Analysts expect more displacement of civilians, either to other parts of Ukraine or abroad, adding pressure on social services and neighbouring European countries.
Despite these challenges, political support for continued resistance remains high within Ukraine. Most Ukrainians recognise that their country’s independence depends on their ability to keep resisting Russian forces. Ukrainian drones have also played an important role in slowing Russia’s advance, compensating for troop shortages with technology.
Ukraine has expanded its operations beyond its borders in recent months. Strikes on Russian oil refineries have caused noticeable disruption. In October, petrol prices in Russia rose by more than ten percent. Damage to refining capacity has forced Russia to import certain fuel products while exporting more crude oil instead. However, the financial impact has not yet affected Russia’s wider economic ability to sustain the war, especially since Western countries remain cautious about increasing pressure on global oil markets.
The United States and its allies have not shown the same willingness to restrict Russian oil exports as they once did with Iran. A significant reduction in Russian oil exports would likely raise global prices, something no major Western government is willing to risk at present.
Russian leaders continue to believe that time is on their side. They refer to numerical and equipment advantages along the front line, though progress remains slow. The planned capture of the mining town of Pakovsk in Donbas appears likely, but analysts say this will not represent a major breakthrough because Ukraine has new defensive lines positioned further west.
Ukrainian forces continue to resist and adapt. The attack on a Russian strategic bomber fleet earlier in the year boosted Ukrainian morale and demonstrated continued capability despite shortages. More operations of this type may follow, though they are difficult to execute.
Western analysts warn that Europe has not fully understood the consequences of a potential Ukrainian defeat. Such an outcome would likely lead to political and economic instability across a large country on the edge of the European Union. New refugee flows could reach several million, creating major pressures on neighbouring states. It may also undermine NATO’s cohesion and confidence at a time when the United States is increasingly focused on the Pacific region.
These concerns have been expressed repeatedly by European leaders over the last three years. However, military support to Ukraine has slowed. Some countries have increased production of weapons, but the rate remains below what is needed for long term support. Supplies of long range missiles, such as the German made Taurus, have been delayed. France and the United Kingdom are rebuilding their own reserves instead of committing to new large scale transfers.
Germany has recently begun a more serious rearmament effort, which suggests that awareness of the larger security challenge is growing. However, many European governments remain cautious about moving too quickly, partly due to domestic political concerns and economic pressures.