(NOVOROSSIYSK / BLACK SEA REGION) – Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have disrupted roughly 2% of global oil supply, according to recent analysis. The attacks focused on the Novorossiysk port, Russia’s largest Black Sea oil export facility.
Novorossiysk plays a critical role in Russia’s oil trade, linking the country to global markets via a network often described as the “shadow oil fleet.” Ukrainian forces have demonstrated significant precision in targeting these facilities, highlighting the effectiveness of their long-range missile systems.
Previously, Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries and ports were limited by allied concerns over potential spikes in oil prices. In March 2024, the Biden administration reportedly discouraged continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, fearing market volatility. Analysts note that the slight price increases observed at the time were largely speculative and not a direct result of Ukrainian operations.
Since 2025, Ukraine has resumed and intensified attacks on Russian oil facilities, including military infrastructure at Novorossiysk port. Previous operations also targeted a large Russian landing ship and an empty oil tanker, further disrupting operations. Ukraine now operates without significant pressure from Western allies, a marked change from prior years when military aid was leveraged to influence operational decisions.
Satellite images from November 11, 2025, show that Russian air defences at Novorossiysk, including advanced S400 systems, sustained substantial damage in recent explosions. At least one or two systems were destroyed or heavily impaired, reducing Russia’s ability to counter further attacks. Ukrainian Neptune cruise missiles, employed in these strikes, have demonstrated consistent effectiveness, including prior operations that destroyed Russian ships and airfields.
Ukraine has also targeted other Russian facilities, including the Ryazan refinery and the Saratov refinery, damaging key distillation plants and prolonging recovery efforts due to ongoing fires. The strikes aim to delay Russian repairs and impede full operational recovery while Ukraine continues to produce and deploy advanced long-range missiles and drone systems.
Despite these disruptions, Russia continues to allocate a large portion of its budget, around 40%, to military spending, sustaining operations over the long term.
Observers have noted key differences in societal response between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian society actively monitors government accountability, while Russian society under the current regime remains constrained, limiting the likelihood of protests that could influence policy or military strategy.