(WARSAW) – An explosion on a Polish train line running into Ukraine is being treated as a deliberate act by a foreign state, according to the Polish government, raising fears of a dangerous widening of the war. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the incident was a “clear attack”, and security agencies are now examining whether it was carried out by actors linked to the Russian state. Officials in Warsaw say the blast has all the hallmarks of a targeted operation against a key supply route between Poland and Ukraine.
Former Air Vice Marshal and military analyst Sean Bell told Times Radio that if the attack is proven to be linked to the Russian state, it would mark a “major escalation”. He said Russia knows the West is supplying Ukraine through Poland’s rail network and would have an interest in disrupting the flow of ammunition, equipment, and humanitarian supplies.
Bell explained that airborne surveillance by Western aircraft in international airspace has already placed pressure on the Russian military. Although those planes cannot be attacked, their radar coverage supports Ukrainian defence operations. Because Poland’s rail links also serve as a critical supply path, Bell said he would not be surprised if the Russian state is now attempting to strike those routes, directly or through proxies. He added that if clear proof emerges, NATO is likely to respond seriously.
Bell joined Times Radio at a moment of renewed focus on Ukraine’s air capability as President Volodymyr Zelensky visited France to sign a major deal for 100 Rafale fighter jets. Although the agreement is significant, Bell said Ukraine is not short of aircraft but short of trained pilots. He noted that of around 100 donated F-16 jets, only a small number have been delivered because Ukraine lacks the pilots and the operational experience to use Western jets safely and effectively. Some aircraft have already been lost, partly due to the challenges of integrating Western technology into Ukraine’s existing air defence network.
He said the new Rafale jets will be important in future years but are unlikely to influence the conflict immediately. He explained that Ukraine does not operate an independent air force and uses aircraft largely as airborne artillery rather than strategic air power. Training pilots, establishing doctrine, and preventing accidental engagements with Ukraine’s own ground-based missile systems are all long-term tasks.
Bell said the French deal includes more than aircraft. It also covers advanced air defence missiles, including the SAMP-T system and its Aster 30 interceptor, which can counter both cruise and ballistic missiles. These systems, he said, are far more modern than much of the equipment previously sent by Western partners, who have often avoided supplying cutting-edge technology that could fall into Russian hands. France’s decision to supply newer systems marks what he described as a “notable shift” in Western policy.
Zelensky’s visit to France also includes a stop at the Coalition of the Willing headquarters in Paris, a European group preparing for possible peacekeeping duties once a formal ceasefire is reached. Bell said such preparation is important but premature, since there is little sign that the Russian dictator is prepared to end the war. He added that the situation on the front line is challenging for Ukraine, which may reduce Russian interest in negotiations. Washington has attempted to restart talks, including in Budapest, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov initially resisted, causing speculation about internal tensions inside the Kremlin.
Bell said these tensions matter because the Russian dictator ultimately relies on support from powerful business elites. With military casualties high and economic pressure increasing, signs of internal friction could grow. Another factor is shifting US policy, with Donald Trump recently taking a more critical stance toward Russia. Bell said Russia has also faced Ukrainian drone strikes on energy facilities and growing US sanctions on major Russian companies. He believes Washington may eventually approve long-range systems such as Tomahawk cruise missiles for Ukraine or assist Ukrainian engineers in developing their own long-range weapons.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have further strained Russia’s resources. Ports such as Novorossiysk have had to pause exports following drone attacks. Bell said the Russian economy is under increasing pressure, particularly as expensive defence spending rises and fuel shortages emerge in parts of the country. Although sanctions alone may not force the Russian dictator to negotiate, they add to the instability around him.
Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation argues that Russia is struggling to defend key sites because advanced air defence systems are deployed at the front. Bell said air defence allocation is a major strategic challenge. High-end missile systems such as Patriot batteries cost around 1 billion US Dollars each, meaning Russia must make difficult choices about whether to protect front-line troops, political centres or energy infrastructure. Much of Russia’s oil network is spread across remote areas, making it difficult to defend against modern Ukrainian missiles like Neptune or the domestically developed Flamingo system.
The explosion in Poland has revived concerns about the conflict spilling into Europe. Bell said he has travelled on the affected rail line during his visits to Ukraine and described it as a vital logistical route. Ukraine has become adept at repairing damaged tracks quickly, but European networks are more exposed. He said that if such incidents become more frequent and are clearly linked to the Russian state, they could influence European willingness to continue supporting Ukraine.
Poland has urged a united European response, but many capitals are waiting for the investigation to conclude. Bell said Russia has clear motives to strike at supply lines, as limiting Western support would benefit its forces on the battlefield. Polish authorities maintain that the attack was deliberate and foreign backed, but have not yet publicly named a responsible party.