(NOVOROSSIYSK, RUSSIA) – Russia has resumed oil exports from its main Black Sea terminal at Novorossiysk only three days after a major Ukrainian missile and drone strike, despite visible damage to key loading infrastructure. The rapid return to operations has surprised analysts and raised concerns about the terminal’s safety and long term reliability.
According to data shared with international media, two tankers returned to loading positions on Sunday after operations were halted for two days. The terminal handles about one fifth of Russia’s crude oil exports and is considered one of the country’s most important energy facilities. A prolonged shutdown would have forced Russia to reduce output from West Siberian oil fields, which would have restricted global supply from the world’s second largest oil exporter.
Satellite imagery and footage circulating online appear to show serious damage at two of the port’s loading berths. The attack also destroyed an S-400 air-defence battery responsible for protecting the terminal. Analysts say that even with the rapid restart, the loss of this system increases the likelihood of further Ukrainian strikes.
Ukraine’s broader strategy targets Russian energy infrastructure used to support the war. Several refineries inside Russia have been struck repeatedly over the past year. Facilities in Ryazan, Saratov and Samara have each recorded up to ten separate attacks, forcing temporary shutdowns. Local reports confirm fires and operational suspensions after recent drone strikes.
The Ryazan refinery alone, one of Russia’s major producers, has faced strikes in almost every month of the year. Similarly, the Saratov refinery was forced to stop processing following the latest overnight attack. Ukrainian officials argue that these facilities provide refined fuel for Russian military operations and must therefore be disrupted.
Ukraine has also expanded long-range missile strikes against Russian power plants. Thermal plants in Oryol, Voronezh, Belgorod and other regions have been hit in what appears to be the country’s first coordinated campaign against Russia’s wider energy grid. The attacks have triggered blackouts, fires and emergency repairs across multiple cities.
Ukrainian intelligence groups and partisan networks continue sabotage activities deeper inside Russian territory. In recent days, Ukrainian operatives were linked to the derailment of a train reportedly carrying North Korean munitions across the Trans-Siberian Railway, more than 6,000 kilometres from Ukraine. Inside occupied areas, pro-Ukrainian partisans have targeted rail switchpoints, signalling equipment and supply infrastructure.
Despite Ukraine’s escalating strikes, Russia continues offensive operations on the ground. Russian forces have advanced several kilometres across open land in Zaporizhzhia, prompting alarm among Ukrainian commentators. Some prominent Ukrainian military bloggers warn that the situation is escalating towards what they fear could become a strategic crisis unless major reforms are made.
A number of Ukrainian analysts argue that Russia advances fastest in open fields, where waves of infantry can overwhelm positions once defenders exhaust ammunition. However, towns with populations above 20,000 tend to halt Russian progress for extended periods due to the higher cost of urban fighting.
The battles around Pokrovsk and other frontline towns remain intense. Thick fog has limited visibility, and both sides increasingly rely on drones. The front line, stretching for about 1,500 kilometres, is shaped by constant drone surveillance. Operators on both sides use thousands of first-person-view drones to attack vehicles, dugouts and supply movements.
As winter approaches, Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have intensified. Repair crews work continuously across multiple regions to restore power and heating. Rolling blackouts are expected to continue as more strikes hit generation and transmission sites.
Ukraine is responding by expanding domestic production of interceptor drones designed to shoot down incoming Shahed drones and other threats. Three companies are already manufacturing them, while eleven more are preparing to start production. Officials say the target is to build up to 1,000 interceptor drones per day, with systems capable of operating at night and in areas with heavy electronic jamming.
Away from the battlefield, Ukraine is dealing with a major corruption scandal involving senior officials in state owned energy companies. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced a full overhaul of supervisory boards and management at multiple entities, including the nuclear and hydroelectric authorities. Several executives have been removed, and more investigations are expected following a 15 month inquiry involving over 1,000 hours of intercepted communications.
One key suspect, who reportedly holds dual citizenship, left Ukraine shortly before the scandal became public. Investigators allege that contractors were pressured to pay commissions of between 10 and 15 per cent on fortification projects meant to protect against Russian missile and drone attacks.
In the United States, debates continue over the enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil. The White House recently extended deadlines affecting Russian oil giant Lukoil, drawing criticism that the administration is weakening restrictions. Reports suggest that a US company is seeking to purchase Lukoil’s foreign assets, prompting questions over the timing of the sanctions relief.
Ukrainian officials continue to insist that Russia has shown no interest in negotiation. European Union diplomats say that every attempt to discuss a ceasefire has been met with new Russian missile attacks. Meanwhile, morale issues appear to be emerging within Russia itself, with some pro-war commentators warning of political and economic instability if the conflict continues for years.
Despite concerns expressed by Ukrainian bloggers and analysts, officials in Kyiv say the country is not considering surrender and will continue to defend its territory. The government maintains that Russia’s strategy is to prolong the conflict and exhaust Ukraine unless international support increases.