(JUBA) – South Sudan quietly marked its 14th anniversary of independence on July 9 without public celebrations for the 11th consecutive year. As the nation continues to face prolonged economic hardship, largely driven by the collapse in oil revenues and the ongoing conflict in neighbouring Sudan, the subdued observance reflected deep concerns about the country’s economic direction.
South Sudan became the world’s newest nation in July 2011 after decades of civil war, separating from Sudan following a referendum. But just two years later, in December 2013, internal fighting broke out between rival factions supporting President Salva Kiir and former deputy Riek Machar, triggering a brutal civil war. Since then, South Sudan has endured constant economic shocks and humanitarian crises.
The most recent blow came in February 2024, when war in Sudan disrupted the oil pipeline that carries nearly 150,000 barrels of oil per day from South Sudan to Port Sudan. This damage halted the bulk of South Sudan’s oil exports and cut off a critical source of US Dollar inflows.
South Sudan remains one of the most oil dependent countries globally, with crude oil accounting for about 90 percent of its public revenues. China’s Ambassador to South Sudan, Ma Qiang, stated in May that key oil blocks were shut down due to pipeline damage. The result has been a major budget crisis, with a 46 percent deficit reported in the 2024/25 fiscal year.
A March 2025 World Bank report forecasted a 30 percent contraction in South Sudan’s economy for the current fiscal year, mainly due to the halt in oil exports, which cost the country about $7 million per day in lost earnings. These losses have delayed public sector salaries and slashed funding for health and education.
South Sudan’s GDP per capita is projected to fall to half of 2020 levels, continuing a five year decline. Nearly 80 percent of the population now faces food insecurity, and 92 percent live in poverty, according to World Bank estimates.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Oil Revenue Loss Per Day | $7 million |
| Public Budget Deficit (FY2024/25) | 46 percent |
| Projected Economic Contraction (2024/25) | 30 percent |
| Poverty Rate (2024) | 92 percent |
| Food Insecurity | 7.7 million people (57%) |
| Exchange Rate (July 2025) | 1 USD = 4,600 SSP |
The African Development Bank (AfDB) noted that poverty has surged from 51 percent in 2011 to 92 percent in 2024. It warned that unless structural and security challenges are resolved, poverty levels may continue to rise. The AfDB called for improvements in fiscal policy, domestic resource mobilisation and better budget accountability.
According to the United Nations Development Programme, 82 percent of South Sudanese households face multi-dimensional poverty. Other pressing issues include climate change impacts, cholera outbreaks, soaring living costs and large scale displacement.
UN Secretary General António Guterres said South Sudan now faces “a perfect storm” of crises. The UN and other agencies have struggled to deliver sufficient aid, citing funding cuts and logistical challenges.
Efforts to stabilise the economy have included international engagement. President Kiir travelled to the United Arab Emirates twice this year to discuss economic cooperation and attract investment in agriculture, energy, and infrastructure.
In March, the UAE inaugurated a 100 bed hospital in Northern Bahr el Ghazal state and pledged $200 million in humanitarian support. The UAE’s engagement has been viewed as a crucial diplomatic and economic partnership during this difficult period.
More promisingly, on June 20, South Sudan reached a staff level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a nine month Staff Monitored Program. According to the IMF’s mission chief Mame Astou Diouf, the agreement focuses on economic and financial reforms and could improve macroeconomic stability if security continues to improve.
IMF projections suggest that while GDP contracted in FY2024/25, growth may return in FY2025/26 if oil exports resume steadily. The partial resumption of oil flow in April 2025 offered some hope of recovery.
The IMF also noted a parallel foreign exchange market premium of 30.8 percent as of June 11, reflecting the wide gap between official and street exchange rates and the scarcity of hard currency.
Economist Dr Kimo Aban Adiebo stressed that political stability must come first. He argued that no amount of central bank or fiscal reform would succeed without addressing insecurity.
“If the political instability and insecurity have not been resolved, nothing is going to change,” he told Radio Tamazuj in June.
Charles Undeland, the World Bank’s Country Manager for South Sudan, echoed calls for reforms in governance and fiscal management.
“If carried through, these reforms will provide for greater macroeconomic stability,” he said.
Despite these international partnerships and pledges of support, the road ahead for South Sudan remains uncertain. The absence of Independence Day celebrations this year served as a reminder of the country’s ongoing economic fragility.