(HEGLIG / UNITY STATE BORDER) – Escalating militia attacks on Sudan’s main oil corridor have raised fears of a potential shutdown of infrastructure that South Sudan relies on for almost all of its export earnings.
The Heglig oil complex, located close to the South Sudan border, has come under sustained drone and ground assaults in recent weeks. Sudanese officials have warned that operations may be fully suspended if the situation does not improve.
The main group behind the strikes is the Rapid Support Forces, which has shifted tactics from fighting government troops in cities to attacking oil facilities. The group has reportedly formed its own administration in areas it controls, creating a split in governance across Sudan.
The conflict has already caused an estimated 150,000 deaths and displaced millions. The targeting of oil infrastructure marks a turning point, with implications stretching beyond Sudan.
For South Sudan, the threat is immediate. The country depends on Sudan’s pipeline network to export crude to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Oil accounts for about 90 percent of government income. There is no alternative export route ready for use.
The Heglig fields carry both Sudanese and South Sudanese crude. Any shutdown would halt transport and force Juba to suspend production, cutting off revenue needed for salaries and basic services.
At the current exchange rate of 7,100 South Sudanese Pounds (SSP) per US Dollar, even a single day of halted exports could cost millions. A shutdown of 50,000 barrels per day would equal a loss of about $4.5 million, or roughly SSP 31,950,000,000.
South Sudan’s political climate adds to the challenge. Election uncertainty and leadership disputes between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar have slowed decision making. Investigations by international agencies have also shown that significant amounts of oil money have been diverted through opaque arrangements such as oil for roads deals and inflated service contracts.
Meanwhile, international energy companies active in both Sudan and South Sudan have reduced staff and upgraded security. Some are preparing evacuation plans in case export flows are halted.
Security analysts warn that a collapse of the Sudanese oil corridor could damage regional stability. Loss of revenue could fuel unrest in both countries. Disagreements over transit fees could reignite border tensions. Armed groups may exploit security gaps.
Some options being discussed by regional officials include establishing protected zones around pipeline routes, inviting independent monitors to verify security cooperation, or setting up new revenue sharing deals that incentivise all parties to safeguard infrastructure.
Diplomats have also floated the idea of fast tracking alternative export routes through Kenya or Ethiopia. However, experts say such corridors would take several years to build even under ideal conditions.
For now, South Sudan remains highly exposed. Any major disruption in Sudan could rapidly turn into a fiscal emergency in Juba.