Putin Paralysis Mirrors Gorbachev’s Final Years – Oxford Academic

(LONDON) – A leading Oxford academic has warned that the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin increasingly resembles a spent force, avoiding critical economic decisions as elite discontent and systemic decay erode his authority from within.

Professor Vlad Mykhnenko of Oxford University, specialising in geography, political economy and sustainable urban development, told Times Radio’s Frontline programme that Putin is postponing painful choices until after the so called parliamentary elections in October. “I feel that because he is a hesitant individual himself as far as I can feel he’s going to try to drag on this thinking until October,” Professor Mykhnenko said.

Economic Paralysis and Gorbachev Parallels

The academic drew a stark historical parallel that the Kremlin will find deeply unwelcome. “Putin is increasingly becoming to look like Gorbachov in his later years and this is probably not a good comparison in that Gerbachov talked a lot in ’89 1991 he tried to pull all various levers but the machine was not moving the system was not responding to his commands,” he stated. “So it was almost he was becoming less relevant if not irrelevant to the system and I think Putin talking about this couple of days about the victories is on the horizon and we all know it’s going to come. It does sound more and more increasingly pathetic and not convincing at all. And none of the pro-war Russian bloggers and other commentators are convinced. They’re thinking he’s really a kind of a spent force and they’re really looking for somebody new.”

EU Loan Provides Predictability for Ukraine

Professor Mykhnenko welcomed the approval of a 90 billion euro (approximately 97 billion US Dollars) two year loan facility for Ukraine, describing it as vital for budgetary planning. “This 90 billion two-year loan almost a grant really is a very big deal because it gives Ukraine something that the wartime governments rarely get enough of is predictability and obviously money as well,” he said. “The real value here is not only the size of the sum it’s 45 billion for 2026 and 45 billion for 2027 but it helps Kyiv to plan salaries, pensions, procurement, the basic state functions beyond the next political wobble in somebody else’s capital.”

He stressed that Ukraine collects roughly half of its required spending through taxation, funnelling all domestic revenue into the war effort, making external support “close to economic oxygen.”

Air Defence and Shifting Dependencies

Addressing concerns over US stockpiles following recent military operations in the Middle East, the professor indicated that Ukraine has diversified its air defence strategy significantly but still relies on high end systems such as the Patriot. “Ukraine has come a long way in kind of layered air defense. So you have drones, electronic warfare, decentralized interception systems, and cheaper solutions for cheaper threats. But at the very top end, especially against ballistic missiles, the missiles that go up in space and then come down very fast, Patriot class systems still do things that are very hard to replace quickly,” he explained, noting that using a million dollar interceptor for every threat is not a sustainable business model.

Energy Crisis Strains Ukraine

The global energy crisis has dealt a significant blow to Ukraine’s economy. Professor Mykhnenko revealed that the central bank cut its growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5 percent to 1.8 percent, with electricity costs now the highest in Europe. “The system is keeping, Ukraine has kept the system running by the much higher price and with less room for growth,” he said, likening the situation to “running a marathon with a generator stuck to you.”

Russian Economy Under Pressure

Professor Mykhnenko dismissed official Russian inflation figures, stating the reality is far worse than the Kremlin admits. “The Russian central bank rate is about 15 percent. So you can’t really have a low inflation. They have a crazy high interest rate because it doesn’t make a lot of sense,” he said. Citing a Financial Times report referencing Sweden’s military intelligence service, he noted that real inflation is likely closer to 15 percent rather than the official 5.86 percent.

He highlighted that the Russian government has already exhausted its entire annual deficit spending allocation of 4.6 trillion rubles in the first quarter alone. “So they have three quarters to run on something else. Some extra borrowing that is not in the budget,” he added, characterising the economy as being “held together by oil coercion, fear, creative accounting and willingness to treat civilian prosperity as a negotiable luxury.”

Regarding recent temporary sanctions relief on oil, Professor Mykhnenko stated that while Russia may have gained approximately nine billion extra dollars according to Reuters reports, overall oil and gas revenues for the first quarter remain down 45 percent year on year. “Hence 9 billion is not going to really solve all the problems.”

Lavrov’s Bluster and Kremlin Posturing

On Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent bullish claim that talks to end the war were not a priority, Professor Mykhnenko suggested this was theatrical. “Lavrov’s theatrical confidence is not proof that Russia is comfortable. It’s proof that the Kremlin thinks that delay attrition western fatigue will still serve Russian interest. He needs to sound confident because that’s his job.”

Ecological Disaster and Domestic Anger

The academic pointed to growing public anger in Russia, fuelled by social media footage of the consequences of Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure. Describing the Black Sea coast near Sochi, Anapa and Adler as “effectively the best tourist resort in Russia” with a “beautiful subtropical climate,” he noted that the area now faces an environmental calamity. “You have this oily rain that just drops everywhere and effectively kills all the vegetation. It’s a horrible situation really and the Russian authorities are keeping that quiet but social media is full of those horrible videos, people shouting obscenities and effectively showing the consequences. The anger frustration is growing.”

Where Will Change Come From?

Asked whether transformation in Russia would be driven externally or internally, Professor Mykhnenko was unequivocal. “It will come from inside and it will come from inside the elites. I think it will be more of an internal coup kind of moment rather than a popular uprising, not to mention Ukrainian invasion of Moscow. I would put my money on a kind of elite disunion, some kind of elite fracture, some kind of discussions that the old grandpa is getting on and we need to replace him with somebody a bit more agile.”

Ukraine’s Expanding Defence Industrial Base

Concluding on an optimistic note, the professor underscored that Ukraine’s defence industrial complex has grown tenfold and is now capable of producing up to 50 billion dollars worth of weaponry annually. “Ukraine only produces about six to seven billions worth of weapons because it doesn’t have the money. The capacity is to be seven times more of everything,” he said. “It needs investment, financial assistance from the western supporters of Ukraine to fire that military industrial complex fully. Support works and Ukraine support is not charity, it is an investment in one’s defence and also you’re buying time for your own defence.”

This analysis was provided during an interview on Frontline with Kate Gerbeau, produced by Times Radio.