Azerbaijan Breaks Ranks With Moscow to Forge Defence Ties with Ukraine

(BAKU, AZERBAIJAN) – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has concluded a landmark visit to Azerbaijan, signing a series of bilateral cooperation agreements including military and air defence collaboration. The visit, the first wartime trip by the Ukrainian leader to the South Caucasus nation, represents a significant diplomatic development in a region the Kremlin has long considered its sphere of influence.

President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan hosted President Zelenskyy at his residence, where the two leaders discussed pressing geopolitical questions and formalised a number of agreements. Crucially, the accords include provisions for Ukraine to share its air defence experience with Azerbaijan. The country borders Iran, a factor that adds considerable strategic weight to the arrangement.

The symbolism of the visit extends well beyond the immediate agreements. Azerbaijan remains a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the loose association of former Soviet republics established after the collapse of the USSR. The fact that a CIS member state has openly invited the Ukrainian president, whose forces are actively dismantling Russian military capacity and energy infrastructure, sends an unambiguous signal about the erosion of Moscow’s authority.

For Vladimir Putin, the Russian dictator, the spectacle is a personal humiliation. His stated ambition to recreate the Soviet Union, which he once described as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, has been shattered by Ukrainian resilience. The loss of control over former Soviet republics is accelerating as those nations observe Russia’s weakness.

The history between Baku and Moscow adds further context. President Aliyev visited the Kremlin just before Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, on the day Putin announced recognition of the so called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as independent entities. Aliyev, visibly uncomfortable with the timing, did not appear at the subsequent press conference and left without making comments. Observers at the time suggested he feared that after Ukraine’s anticipated collapse within days or weeks, Azerbaijan or other former republics could be next.

Ukraine’s defiance broke that plan. The blitzkrieg failed, and the image of Russia as a superpower has since deteriorated. Moscow’s geopolitical influence has suffered indirect losses in the Middle East, Africa, South America, and Central America. However, the loss of control over former Soviet republics is arguably more damaging to the Kremlin’s long term vision.

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia have been building. In 2024, Russian air defence systems downed an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft. Moscow denied responsibility despite clear evidence and refused to provide adequate compensation to the families of victims. The incident was taken as a serious offence by Baku. Additionally, Russia targeted Azerbaijani owned petrol stations and businesses on Ukrainian territory, a move seen as a direct message to Aliyev.

Azerbaijan has responded as an independent state with strengthening ties outside the former Soviet sphere, notably its close relationship with Turkey. Baku has also taken direct action against Russian influence operations, arresting operatives of Rossotrudnichestvo, the Kremlin affiliated organisation present across former Soviet republics. Officially meant to foster business and cultural cooperation, the organisation serves in practice as a network of Russian intelligence assets. Azerbaijan began openly detaining these individuals and shut down a number of Russian newspapers operating within its borders.

The Zelenskyy visit therefore carries immense symbolic weight. A CIS member state, once expected to coordinate key decisions with Moscow, has instead welcomed the leader of a nation that is systematically degrading Russian oil export terminals, refineries, air defence systems, and military arsenals. Dozens of Russian regions are now active war zones, with explosions and civilians coming to the realisation that war has reached their territory.

During the visit, President Aliyev confirmed his full respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The statement, made while Russian infrastructure burns, serves as a concise summary of Putin’s strategic failure.

The Russian dictator failed to recognise the moment in March 2022 when his objective of seizing Kyiv collapsed and retreat was still an option. Instead, he persisted, accelerating the internal dissolution of his own country. The damage inflicted on Russia’s image as a strong state, as the purported second strongest army in the world, and as the heir to Soviet geopolitical power is now irreparable. That destruction was achieved by Putin himself. Visits such as this confirm that everyone in the region now senses it.

The event will be noted in the Kremlin. It will also be discussed in Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan.