European Rearmament Puts Moscow’s War Economy Under Pressure

(LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM) – A leading analyst has warned that the Russian dictator faces mounting economic and strategic pressure as Europe accelerates defence spending and the United States under Donald Trump remains an unpredictable and unreliable partner for Moscow. Speaking to Times Radio’s Frontline programme, Tim Ash, a senior emerging markets sovereign strategist, stated that Russia’s economic position “is probably only going to get worse” while European support for Ukraine signals a commitment “for the long haul.”

Ash emphasised that Europe is fully aware of the stakes involved in the conflict. “The Ukrainians held out and were supported by the Europeans who absolutely know that if Ukraine loses this war, Russia will not stop in Ukraine and that will present a huge security threat for Europe,” he stated. He added that “the best defence for Europe is Ukraine at the moment.”

The analyst highlighted the confusion within the Kremlin regarding the stance of the current US administration. He noted that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had called for “a conversation about how the Americans see the future of our economic relations,” suggesting a desire for closer economic cooperation with the United States after the war. However, Ash described the Russian position as one of bemusement. “They had great expectations that Trump would deliver Ukraine on a plate for them,” Ash said, referencing the Anchorage summit. “But the Ukrainians held out and then Trump got bored and moved on to the next thing, obviously Venezuela, Maduro, and now the war in Iran.”

The analyst pointed to a pattern of regime change that has unsettled the Kremlin. “Putin does not like his allies being toppled,” Ash remarked. “The fall of Maduro was a big blow to the Russians. There has been a whole catalogue of regimes that were friendly to the Russians getting toppled one way or another: Yanukovych in Ukraine back in 2014, Gaddafi, Assad and others. Putin is worried that in a way he may be next.”

Beyond immediate geopolitical concerns, Ash drew a stark historical parallel regarding defence economics. He noted that Donald Trump is planning to increase US defence spending to nearly 1.5 trillion dollars, almost doubling the current budget. “Russia can never match that,” he stated. Ash invoked the memory of the 1980s arms race under Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, which he said “ended up bankrupting the Russians and they ended up with Perestroika, Glasnost and then the fall of the Soviet Union.”

The economic disparity is significant. Ash described Russia as “a two trillion dollar economy,” which he characterised as “less than a tenth the US economy” and a fraction of the combined European economy. “It just cannot match Western defence spend,” he said.

He further noted that while Trump’s actions may appear to weaken the NATO alliance, the practical outcome is a massive rearmament programme across Europe. “Previously he had a European NATO on his doorstep that was barely meeting the two percent of GDP NATO defence spend. It is probably going to go to three and a half percent of GDP,” Ash explained. “You have now a rearmed, energised Ukraine. We have the Turks, the Finns, the Poles all on Russia’s borders massively tooling up and rearming.”

In response to the perceived unreliability of the United States as an ally, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for a homegrown European missile defence system to replace dependence on systems such as the American Patriot. When asked how quickly Europe could invent and mass produce a Patriot alternative, Ash expressed confidence in European capability. “It is not a problem of money and it is not a problem really of science. It is a question of will and organisation,” he said. He cited the rapid development of ballistic missile capabilities and drones by Turkey over a single decade as evidence of what is achievable.

“We cannot be dependent on the Americans. We need an autonomous defence capability,” Ash insisted. “We have the historical defence science industrial memory in the UK, France, Germany and others. And we have the new kids on the block that are the real innovators, the Turks and the Ukrainians. We all need to work together to deliver on this.”