Kremlin Deadline on Donbas Met With Scepticism

(KYIV) – Ukraine has dismissed reported Kremlin demands for a rapid withdrawal from Donbas, with analysts questioning Moscow’s ability to enforce a new timeline for full occupation of the region.

Speaking on a televised discussion, retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said threats from the Kremlin have been consistent since the start of the war but have not been matched by results.

“We have been hearing threats from the Kremlin from the very beginning with timelines and maximalist demands, and they have not been able to follow through on any of these things because Ukraine has been so successful,” he said.

Hodges said Ukraine has not only defended its territory but developed new capabilities that place it ahead of Russian forces in several areas.

“I do not doubt that the Kremlin has issued that kind of threat, but I do not know why they think that if Ukraine does not pull out by a certain time, Russia can then just go in and remove them. I think that is very unlikely,” he added.

Asked which side is in greater need of a pause in fighting, Hodges said both Ukraine and Russia would benefit from time to regroup and rebuild forces. However, he said the current momentum appears to favour Ukraine.

“In my mind, it feels like the momentum has shifted in favour of Ukraine. You do not hear the same narrative about the inevitability of a Russian victory,” he said.

He pointed to sustained Russian losses and repeated strikes on oil infrastructure inside Russia. “We have reached a point where they are losing more than they can replace,” he said, adding that frequent reports of refinery fires have altered perceptions of the conflict.

Hodges also noted localised Ukrainian gains on the battlefield, although he said these alone would not determine the outcome of the war. He added that there is often a delay between events on the ground and how they are perceived internationally.

“The Russians would probably like to find some way to get momentum back,” he said.

On diplomacy, he criticised recent calls by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for the United States to pressure Kyiv into negotiations.

“It is almost laughable to hear him say that Russia needs a security guarantee. They were secure before they decided to attack Ukraine,” Hodges said.

He added that it remains unclear how much influence Washington currently has over Kyiv, noting a possible diversion of US resources towards the Middle East.

“I hope that we are still providing intelligence capabilities and support, but I do not have a good sense of that,” he said.

Discussing Lavrov’s role within the Kremlin, Hodges said it is difficult to assess internal dynamics but noted the foreign minister’s long tenure.

“I would not write him off. He has been around a long time,” he said.

Hodges also described political developments in Hungary as a setback for Moscow’s influence in Europe, following an election result that weakened a key Kremlin ally.

“This was great news. It is a blow for the Kremlin to see their biggest ally inside the EU and NATO taken out,” he said.

He suggested Russia may now look to other figures in Europe but would struggle to replace that level of influence.

Turning to Ukraine’s strategy, Hodges said Kyiv may be approaching a decisive phase through sustained strikes on Russian oil and gas infrastructure.

“Ukraine has developed a path to victory through the destruction of Russian oil and gas export infrastructure,” he said.

He added that continued attacks on refineries and export facilities could make it difficult for Russia to sustain its war effort.

“I would encourage Ukraine to keep doing that, and for European countries to invest in Ukraine’s long range strike capabilities,” he said.

Hodges also highlighted the role of Russia’s shadow fleet in maintaining exports and said European states could do more to counter it.

Addressing Russian warnings of retaliation if Ukraine uses foreign airspace for strikes, Hodges dismissed the threats.

“These are more Russian threats. Ukrainians probably say, ‘so what?’ What else is Russia going to do that they are not already trying to do?” he said.

He added that a direct escalation against NATO members such as Estonia or Poland is unlikely.

“I doubt they would be willing to launch meaningful strikes against those countries,” he said.