Political Scientist Warns Russian Dictator May Risk General Mobilisation After Autumn Elections

(MOSCOW) – A scenario of general mobilisation in Russia after the so-called elections in autumn is quite realistic, as the Kremlin faces the exhaustion of its contract soldier resources and seeks to change the situation at the front, according to political scientist Oleh Lisnyi.

Speaking in an interview with UNN, Lisnyi suggested Moscow may use new mobilisation reserves not only against Ukraine but also to pressure NATO countries.

Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa had stated that Russia might resort to general mobilisation after the State Duma elections. Lisnyi said the Kremlin is gradually approaching the limits of the current contract recruitment system, leaving forced mobilisation as one of the Russian dictator’s few remaining options for continuing the war.

“If we take this as a scenario, it is quite likely. We see that the situation at the front has reached a stalemate. For over five months, Ukraine has managed to eliminate more Russians than they mobilise. And this trend has every chance of only increasing. The Russian army is now effectively an army of mercenaries. It is not necessary to call only those who came from abroad by that name. Similarly, an ordinary Russian is a mercenary – he is given money, and he goes to kill Ukrainians. But this resource is not infinite. Even if it is not yet exhausted, it has its limits that cannot be infinitely covered by money. And then the state is left with one of the options – coercion,” Lisnyi said.

The political scientist emphasised that for the Kremlin, mobilisation is not only a military risk but also a political one, as it could destroy the unspoken agreement between the authorities and society in the Russian Federation.

“Putin has a social contract with the population – you give me all freedoms, and I give you security. And mobilisation breaks this agreement; these are risks for him. I am not sure it will be an immediate riot, but over time it could lead to serious changes in the attitude toward the government, as happened after the First World War. Here, everything depends on what is more important for Putin – to risk everything for an attempt to win or to maintain internal stability. But I am inclined to believe that he may once again risk the lives of his people for the sake of his goal,” the political scientist noted.

Lisnyi also suggested that the new mobilisation might be connected not only to the war against Ukraine but also to a potential escalation against NATO countries. He noted the Kremlin has long been testing the West’s reaction.

“Hypothetically, this is possible because now the Russians themselves are actively promoting the topic of a possible attack on the Baltic states. They might try not to take resources from the Ukrainian front, but to conduct some short ‘victorious war’ with new forces. But I think it is unlikely to be easy for them,” Lisnyi said.

The political scientist urged against attempting to evaluate the Kremlin’s actions solely from the perspective of rational logic.

“Our logic is the logic of mentally healthy people. But Putin’s logic is completely different. Back then, it was also illogical to attack Ukraine, but he attacked. And now, when it would be logical to attack Europe, considering who is currently in the White House, he might not attack. He might simply apply media pressure. We are dealing with a specific politician who sees the mechanisms for achieving results in his own way. I cannot say unequivocally that if it is convenient now, he will definitely attack,” the expert explained.

On the effectiveness of strikes on Russian territory, Lisnyi commented that the Kremlin reacts specifically to strength and fear.

“There is a very simple argument that everyone can verify. Before 9 May, it was critically important for Putin to hold his parade. And he strained all his forces to ensure the security of Moscow. This means that when he is pressured and when he is afraid – he reacts. But they pulled a huge amount of air defence to Moscow, and in other places, the system remained full of holes. Practice later showed this. Therefore, I absolutely agree that pressure must be applied to Russia. And then there will be a result,” Lisnyi emphasised.

The political scientist stated that the war has long gone beyond exclusively Ukrainian territory.

“Today, everything is being done correctly. And strikes on Moscow are one of the elements of pressure. Only through strength. Many say that the final word will belong to diplomats. Perhaps. But everything is decided on the battlefield. And the battlefield now is already more than the territory of Ukraine,” the expert added.

Lisnyi described Russian diplomacy as operating through constantly raising the stakes and attempts at pressure.

“Russia plays exactly like this – raises the stakes, gets punched in the teeth, rolls back, then raises the stakes again. This is their classic diplomacy. They have not changed anything. For them, changing a position is not a problem at all. Inside the country, they can always explain any U-turn to the population,” the political scientist remarked.

In Lisnyi’s assessment, Russia is actively trying to wait for political changes in Europe and the United States, supporting right wing and anti Ukrainian forces.

“The Russians are counting on a weak Europe. They are doing everything to make it weaker. They use any elections as an element of destabilisation. They heat up societies, support forces that will be destructive for a specific country. And if they are also anti Ukrainian – that is absolutely ideal for the Kremlin. And there is logic in the fact that Putin might be waiting for exactly this scenario. He is not just waiting – he is pouring large amounts of money into such parties and trying to influence European elections,” Lisnyi stated.

At the same time, the expert does not believe that even possible political changes in Europe will automatically mean a catastrophe for Ukraine.

“Europe’s course will certainly not be the same as it is now, but that does not mean an automatic catastrophe. It might be harder for us, but we will look for other allies, and the situation will also change. A catastrophe would be if Russia lost nothing and remained as strong as it is now. But that is not happening. Ukraine is doing everything to weaken Russia as much as possible,” the political scientist said.

In conclusion, Lisnyi stated that the current situation remains extremely dynamic and developments could prove unexpected for Russia itself.

“We live in a state of war, and anything can happen here. But not only black swans should fly in our direction. They can also fly toward the Russian Federation. And ones that we cannot even predict right now,” the expert concluded.