Pro-War Bloggers Now Call It Putin’s War, Not Russia’s

(MOWCOW, RUSSIA) – The Russian dictator’s unspoken pact with his population to shield them from the consequences of his invasion of Ukraine has collapsed, according to a new analysis. Mounting evidence suggests that the war is now inescapable in every corner of Russian society, from reduced Victory Day parades to unprecedented drone strikes reaching Moscow.

The annual Victory Day parade on Red Square was reduced to what observers described as almost nothing, with almost no major military hardware displayed. Footage showed Russian troops marching alongside what was described as “the only other army on Earth without Wi-Fi.” Commentator Caolan Robertson stated, “I honestly think that this could be one of the last Victory Day parades that we see in Moscow, at least for the next few years.”

Robertson noted the extraordinary lengths the Russian dictator went to in order to secure the event. “Just imagine the scene this time last week, Vladimir Putin hours before the parade is held, tossing and turning at night in cold sweats, having to pick up the phone to Donald Trump and beg him to try and get Zelenskyy to try and get Ukraine to call off the strikes on Red Square.”

A significant rhetorical shift has been detected among Russia’s pro war voices. Telegram channels filled with supporters of the invasion have begun using markedly different language. “They’ve not been calling it our war anymore. They’ve been calling it Putin’s war and that matters drastically,” the report states.

Analysts note this represents a critical development because Russian nationalism is built on the concept of the nation as one unified block, with the dictator, the state and the people moving in lockstep. The decision to separate the war from the national identity signals deep and growing discontent directed specifically at the Russian dictator.

This shift in sentiment appears to be fuelling extreme paranoia within the Kremlin. The Russian dictator’s aides are reportedly not allowed to use mobile phones, he hides in bunkers constantly, his location is completely hidden and he is almost never seen in public. During the recent parade, he remained present for only 45 minutes before retreating underground into his network of tunnels.

Compounding the pressure, Ukraine released the precise coordinates of Red Square hours before the Victory Day parade began. Robertson observed that most global headlines now depict Ukraine as holding the advantage. A further blow came when a Gulf state under attack requested Ukraine’s assistance to protect its air defence systems and national infrastructure.

The Russian dictator’s approval rating has fallen below its pre-2022 level for the first time, a statistic many analysts believe triggered the original invasion. The state has resorted to issuing what Robertson termed “bizarre statements” never previously seen from Moscow.

Russia also launched its largest ever missile test this week, with state controlled newspapers competing to describe the weapon as the biggest and loudest possible. “It sounds comical when I say it like this, but I’m literally not joking,” Robertson said. “All this is a state that’s scared. Russia always does this when it feels backed into a corner.”

Historical parallels were drawn with the final years of Tsarist Russia in 1917. When a state cannot promise a future, it becomes obsessed with its past. The report notes the Kremlin now constantly evokes World War II, sacrifice, ancient destiny, traditional values and historic greatness. In recent weeks, vigilante groups have been filmed storming nightclubs across Russia, enforcing so called traditional values. One party was raided just three days ago.

Robertson likened the current behaviour to a dying star. “A star becomes most unstable just before it dies. Something very specific happens just before a star collapses. It expands violently and burns brightly and it starts spewing matter all around into space, lashing out like Russia right now, hammering Kyiv in an unprecedented way, threats to the world, launching missiles into nowhere. All this happens just before the star implodes. All this isn’t proof of confidence. It’s proof of instability.”

Bill Browder, a businessman who previously operated in Moscow and now researches Russian affairs extensively, was interviewed for the report.

He confirmed that Russia is falsifying its economic statistics. “One of the most interesting facts that came up recently was a statement by the Swedish head of military intelligence who pointed out something which has been obvious to me since the very beginning which is that Russia is lying about all of their economic statistics. If they lie about everything else, why would they publish accurate economic statistics?”

Browder ridiculed the notion that Russia’s economy was growing despite devastating Western sanctions. “When Gazprom no longer sells their gas to Europe. When all flights to anywhere but Istanbul, Tel Aviv, and Bangkok are cancelled when a million young men flee the country because they don’t want to get drafted into the meat grinder. How is that possible that the economy would just be humming along?”

Ukraine’s systematic targeting of Russian oil infrastructure has been a decisive factor, Browder stated. “The Ukrainians have looked for all the economic pressure points and what are those pressure points? Those are where Russia exports its oil. Oil is the main source of hard currency that Russia has. What the Ukrainians are doing very successfully with their drones is bypassing Russian air defence and blowing up oil export terminals and oil refineries.”

Browder noted that the Russian dictator’s original promise was that the war would not affect ordinary citizens. He called it a “special military operation” precisely to minimise its apparent scope. That compact has now been broken. “I’ve been watching these videos of these influencers crying in Tapsi and various other places because they’re all feeling under threat. They weren’t crying when the Ukrainian children were being killed on a daily basis, but now all of a sudden they’re crying.”

In a move of what Browder described as “extreme paranoia,” the Russian dictator has cut off the internet in Moscow and St. Petersburg. “That is something that this is no longer a special military operation if you cut the internet in your country. Internet is the backbone for everything. All communications, ecommerce, navigation, everything. You cut the internet and everybody feels it.” The possible motivations include fear that the internet could be used to target him, as occurred with Qasem Soleimani in Iran, or preparation for a general conscription drive requiring suppression of public anger.

Browder traced the Russian population’s seeming indifference to wartime atrocities to a deeply ingrained cynical mindset stretching back to the Stalin era.

“Any kind of initiative, any kind of idealism was punished with gulags, camps, and death. Over a long period of time, the Russians have effectively lost their morality. This cynical mentality, which is, I’m going to take care of myself, my friends, my family, and that’s it. I don’t care about anything else. Anything else more idealistic is just base stupidity. You’re a fool if you care about humanity, if you care about corruption, if you care about other people.”

This selfishness, Browder argued, now creates a vulnerability for the regime.

“Putin can’t control the level of anger now. He used to be able to control it by giving people money and treats of different sorts. All he can do is he can control the level of fear. But there’s a moment in time and nobody can predict it when it could happen or may not happen where anger overcomes fear.”

International developments have further weakened the Kremlin’s position. Viktor Orbán has been removed from power in Hungary, eliminating what Browder called the Russian dictator’s “Trojan horse inside the European Union.” The EU requires unanimity for major foreign policy decisions, and without Orbán blocking measures, the bloc has now approved a 90 billion euro (£77.5 billion, $98.2 billion) two year loan to Ukraine.

Browder acknowledged that predicting the war’s end remains impossible.

“It’s very important to understand that Putin needs to stay in power in order to stay alive and he needs this war to stay in power. He can’t cut a deal to stop this war without risking losing power. And if he loses power, he’ll die.” He described the Russian dictator as being “like a cockroach” who survives isolation and waits for new Western leaders to seek renewed relations.

However, Browder identified Ukraine’s strikes on oil export capacity as the single most effective pressure point. “If they continue that, double down, triple down, that could be a total game changer for Ukraine. If he doesn’t have the oil industry exporting oil, he doesn’t have money. If he doesn’t have money, then he can’t do any of the stuff that he’s been doing for a long time.”

The video was released by independent commentator Caolan Robertson.