Russia can’t keep up. What lengths will it go to to sustain this war? | On Air

(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Russia’s capacity to sustain its war against Ukraine is eroding on multiple fronts simultaneously, according to a new analysis of military logistics, economic data and internal social dynamics. While the Kremlin projects an image of resilience, converging pressures from Ukrainian long range strikes, acute manpower shortages and economic dysfunction suggest the regime’s grip is facing its most severe test since the full scale invasion began.

The conflict has entered a distinctly unsettling phase for Moscow as Ukraine develops longer range missiles and drones. Russian forces do not appear to have fully deployed mobile fire teams, drone interceptors or other low cost systems required to defend widely dispersed strategic targets against mass drone incursions. However, analysts suggest an even more significant vulnerability lies in what was once considered Russia’s greatest asset: its seemingly limitless pool of recruits. As this pool proves not so endless, desperate measures are multiplying. These include schemes tricking young people from African countries into work and study programmes that simply deliver them to the front line.

In a parallel effort to divert Western attention and resources away from Kyiv, analysts suggest Moscow may seek to widen the conflict geographically. Estonia is considered particularly exposed. Its recent caution regarding the detention of a shadow fleet tanker in the Baltic Sea reflects deep concern over potential Russian provocations. Ominously, Russia’s Duma recently passed a law allowing the Russian dictator to use military force to defend Russian nationals abroad, a legal pretext analysts view as a formality given the absence of any constraint on his decision making.

Regarding Belarus, the regime of Alexander Lukashenko continues to serve as a critical logistical hub for the Kremlin’s war of aggression. It is from Belarusian airfields that Russian drones take off to destroy Ukrainian cities, and Belarusian railways transport Russian tanks and armour. Ukraine has detected relay stations on Belarusian territory that directly support attack drones targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure and railways. While Ukraine has so far refrained from striking Belarusian soil, the Kremlin desperately needs an incident that would compel Minsk to commit its own soldiers to the front line. This comes as Russia runs short of contract soldiers for use as cannon fodder, forcing the Kremlin to target demographics it had previously promised to shield. Student rosters at universities in Moscow and St. Petersburg are now being used as de facto draft lists. If students fail exams, or indeed even when they pass, military draft notices are frequently delivered alongside their academic grades.

“Russia’s new definition of passing the semester looks a lot like military conscription,” the report notes. “Russian universities provide valuable lists of military age men… It doesn’t matter who you’ll be in ten years. What counts is whether you’ll fill a gap in the meat grinder right away.” This consumption of the country’s own intellectual class is boomeranging back into Russian society in the form of terrifying domestic statistics. The few soldiers and criminal conscripts who return home bring with them a primary skill set rooted in violence, resulting in a drastic spike in crime and domestic abuse. State propaganda, which has fed the populace hatred and trumpeted the law of brute force for years, is now finding an outlet domestically.

Economically, the illusion of stability is fracturing despite high global oil prices. Warnings of a protracted downturn are growing louder even on state media. At the Moscow economic forum, participants heard forecasts of a protracted crisis, with declining consumer spending potentially shaving two percent off Russia’s Gross Domestic Product this year. Meanwhile, the Duma is warning of a severe drop in production and a massive withdrawal of funds from bank deposits. Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have taken up to twenty percent of Russia’s oil export capacity offline. At the Baltic Seaport of Ust Luga, drone strikes damaged storage tanks, while exports from the Sheskharis terminal in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, which handled up to seven hundred thousand barrels per day, were suspended following a major fire. Strikes on refineries have reduced Russian fuel production, forcing a ban on gasoline exports to stabilise the domestic market. This “guns over butter” approach masks deeper weaknesses, including labour shortages fuelled by demographic decline and wartime mobilisation.

Further inland, authorities are culling thousands of cattle, officially due to infections like bovine respiratory disease. Experts warn such diseases do not normally require mass slaughter, raising fears that officials may be concealing a more serious outbreak such as foot and mouth disease. “If they destroy my livestock, I will be left with no livelihood. I will just have to set myself on fire,” one affected farmer stated. In Novosibirsk, farmers are protesting, accusing authorities and state linked agricultural giants of using the crisis to squeeze out small farms. “We ask that you help us save our farms and our cows, which are currently healthy. No blood or milk samples have been taken from our cows for testing,” a protestor explained.

Alongside economic strain, the state is tightening information controls. Mobile internet outages have become a daily reality in border regions close to Ukraine and have now reached the capital. Central Moscow has become an internet free zone. “These are not internet outages. There is just no internet at all,” one Moscow resident said.

“We just tried to pay in the shop and we could not. It is very bad… No way to call a taxi, no way to communicate with colleagues at work, no way to send any reports. It is a nightmare.” The messaging app Telegram, essential for daily life for most Russians, has been banned, though its creator Pavel Durov claims more than fifty million Russians still use the platform daily via VPNs. Despite the Kremlin’s desire for mass adoption of its surveillance app Max, 42% percent of Moscow residents now use VPN services to bypass restrictions.