(WASHINGTON DC, UNITED STATES) – Journalist and academic David Cay Johnston has warned that the United States risks triggering a major global economic shock due to a lack of planning in its approach to the Iran conflict under Donald Trump.
Speaking in an interview on The Trump Report on Times Radio, Johnston described the situation as the result of leadership that was “utterly unqualified” and lacking the capacity to understand complex geopolitical issues. He said the crisis had escalated beyond the Middle East and was now affecting global energy markets and economic stability.
The interview highlighted recent developments in the conflict, including Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field, which is shared with Qatar. Iran responded by declaring energy infrastructure across the Gulf to be legitimate targets and launched retaliatory attacks, including strikes affecting Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas hub, one of the world’s largest export facilities.
Johnston noted that Iran had previously targeted energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Abu Dhabi, and said the conflict had evolved into a broader regional energy crisis. Oil prices have risen above 110 US dollars per barrel, with liquefied natural gas supplies also under threat.
He said Israel appeared to have prepared extensively for the conflict, pursuing a strategy aimed at repeatedly targeting Iranian leadership. Iran, he added, had also developed detailed military plans, including the use of large numbers of drones to disrupt regional energy production.
In contrast, Johnston described Trump’s approach as reactive and lacking preparation. He cited remarks by Trump suggesting limited understanding of regional geography, including references to distances across the Strait of Hormuz.
The International Energy Agency has announced that member states will release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Johnston said this figure represents less than four days of global consumption and would provide only limited relief if supply disruptions continue.
He warned that if around one fifth of global oil flows are disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, significant shortages could emerge within a month, with wider impacts on fertilisers, chemicals and industrial production.
Johnston said countries such as China have built substantial reserves, while others including Japan and South Korea have more limited запас supplies, potentially lasting around 30 days. He warned that oil prices could rise to unprecedented levels if the conflict continues.
Addressing claims that the conflict could end quickly, Johnston rejected suggestions that it would be resolved within weeks, noting the structural dependence of the global economy on fossil fuels.
He also questioned statements by Trump that he had no prior knowledge of Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Johnston said it was highly likely that Israeli forces informed United States military counterparts in advance, given the scale and sensitivity of the operation.
He added that while it remains unclear whether such information reached Trump directly, his past experience suggested that the president may not fully engage with detailed briefings.
Johnston said Trump had tied his position closely to Israeli leadership and was unlikely to shift course unless there were significant changes on the ground. He also warned that shutting down gas fields could cause long term damage, reducing future recovery of resources.
He noted that Iran’s leadership structure allows for rapid replacement of senior figures, reducing the effectiveness of targeted strikes. He warned that continued attacks could lead to the emergence of more hardline leadership over time.
The discussion also referenced analysis suggesting that the conflict could follow a worst case trajectory, including escalation across the Middle East, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and a global economic downturn driven by rising energy costs.
Johnston said the United States was not in full control of the conflict’s direction and that Iran would seek to maintain its position. He noted that Iran has significant manpower reserves and historical experience of prolonged conflict.
The Pentagon has reportedly requested funding exceeding 200 billion US dollars to support operations, indicating expectations of a sustained campaign lasting several months. Johnston said such funding levels suggest a conflict that could extend for six to twelve months.
He warned that a prolonged war could drive inflation in the United States and globally, affecting industrial production in major economies including Germany, Japan and China.
Johnston also highlighted the importance of coalition building before military action, referencing established strategic principles. He said the United States had instead alienated key allies before seeking their support.
Several countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, have issued statements condemning Iranian attacks and supporting safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but have not committed military forces.
Johnston said European states may instead increase support for Ukraine rather than engage directly in the Gulf conflict. He noted that limitations in satellite communications capacity could pose challenges.
He warned that reduced energy supply would affect a wide range of sectors, including agriculture through fertiliser shortages and industrial processes reliant on helium and other materials transported through the region.
Johnston said oil prices could rise to between 150 and 200 US dollars per barrel within weeks if disruptions persist, with global consequences.
He also addressed concerns about United States relations with allies, noting that trust could be undermined by inconsistent policy positions. He said there was little expectation that Trump would recognise or reward allied support over time.
Finally, Johnston warned that broader geopolitical risks could increase, including tensions involving China and Taiwan, and concerns among allies such as Denmark regarding United States intentions towards territories such as Greenland.
He said any move against Greenland would have severe implications for NATO and could benefit strategic rivals including Russia and China.
Johnston concluded that the current crisis reflected fundamental weaknesses in planning and understanding at the highest levels of decision making.
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