(KYIV) – Elvira Nabiullina, the head of Russia’s central bank, has disappeared from public view after reportedly warning the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin that the country can no longer afford its war against Ukraine.
Nabiullina, who has served as governor of the Central Bank of Russia since 2013, was scheduled to appear at the St Petersburg Economic Forum, an event she had attended every year during her tenure. She was removed from the list of speakers days before the forum and did not send a deputy to represent the institution. The official explanation for her absence is sick leave, but Russian media and economic experts have offered alternative theories, including that she is under house arrest, has fled the country or is being punished for delivering unwelcome economic news.
The disappearance comes after Nabiullina reportedly presented Putin with an assessment concluding that Russia’s military expenditures must be reduced to prevent a broader economic collapse. According to Russian sources, she warned that the Kremlin’s spending on the war, which now consumes two thirds of tax revenue, is unsustainable. The finance minister has also reportedly told Putin that Russia cannot afford the war.
Nabiullina is widely regarded as one of the most competent officials in Putin’s circle and has been credited with stabilising the Russian economy during the early years of the full scale invasion. She introduced high interest rates to combat inflation and maintained relative stability despite Western sanctions. Her policies, however, made her unpopular with Russian businesses and oligarchs, including Oleg Deripaska, who have long sought her removal.
The St Petersburg Economic Forum, which was held in Putin’s hometown, was overshadowed by Ukrainian drone strikes on an oil refinery and a military corvette in the city. The attacks highlighted the vulnerability of Russian territory and underscored the growing impact of the war on domestic economic conditions.
The Russian economy is under severe strain, with inflation remaining elevated and the rouble weakening. The central bank’s key interest rate currently stands at 21 per cent, a historically high level. Russian businesses are closing and a significant number of skilled workers have left the country. Putin has continued to order economic growth without presenting a credible strategy, according to analysts, with reports indicating he has instructed the economy to expand despite mounting evidence of contraction.
The Kremlin’s response to the economic crisis has been to increase military spending and to hide budget deficits. Putin has also resisted calls to cut defence expenditures, insisting that the war must continue. Analysts have noted that Putin, after more than two decades in power, increasingly believes he is an expert in all areas, including military strategy and economics, and has rejected advice from his own officials.
Speculation about Nabiullina’s fate has focused on several possibilities. Some reports suggest she is under house arrest for disagreeing with the Kremlin’s economic policies. Others claim she has left Russia, possibly for Saudi Arabia or Dubai, after threatening to resign if Putin announced a general mobilisation or closed the borders. A third theory is that she has simply been sidelined and will be replaced by a more pliable figure who will comply with Putin’s demands regardless of the consequences.
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