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(ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, UKRAINE) – Ukrainian forces have cleared Russian troops from territory in Zaporizhzhia oblast that Moscow claimed to have captured over the past two months, according to battlefield updates and independent analysis.

The counterattack reportedly pushed Russian forces back by up to 9.5 kilometres within a week and disrupted preparations for a wider Russian operation in the region. Ukrainian troops have crossed a river line previously viewed as a natural barrier and are working to push Russian forces further from key positions.

Ukraine also struck Russia’s Ilski oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai. Video footage showed the facility on fire overnight, with flames still visible at least 12 hours later. The refinery lies about 405 kilometres from the Ukrainian border and produces around 6.6 million tonnes of petroleum products per year. It has reportedly been targeted six times, most recently on 1 January.

Further strikes were reported at the port of Taman, where an LPG terminal has been hit at least six or seven times. Satellite imagery comparing before and after images indicates that at least one building was destroyed by fire.

According to Reuters, citing Kepler and Rystad Energy data, Russian oil storage capacity is nearing its limit as exports decline. Seaborne crude exports fell from 3.8 million barrels per day in December to 3.4 million in January and are tracking at about 2.8 million in February. Millions of barrels are reportedly being held on tankers in the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean and Pacific as buyers remain scarce. A European ban on fuels refined from Russian crude has further reduced demand.

Oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline were halted after a Russian air strike damaged infrastructure on Ukrainian territory. Hungary later sought assistance from Croatia to route oil deliveries, but Croatia declined.

Ukraine’s Security Service, the SBU, also struck a chemical plant in Perm region, around 1,600 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. The facility produces methanol and other substances used in the military sector and has been under sanctions.

Ukrainian strikes reportedly destroyed a Ka 27 helicopter and an S300 launcher in one night. In occupied Crimea, Ukraine hit BK16 assault boats, an RSP10 radar, a Pantsir air defence system and an Iskander missile storage site, along with a remote command post.

Military analysts describe a grey zone between front lines, extending five to 20 kilometres, where neither side exercises full control. Ukrainian strategy has increasingly relied on fibre optic first person view drones costing about 400 US dollars per unit to disrupt logistics and eliminate advancing troops. Reports suggest that up to 90 per cent of Russian casualties are now caused by drones.

A reported casualty ratio of 27 Russian soldiers killed for every Ukrainian soldier lost near Kupyansk has drawn attention. Analysts say Ukrainian command has adjusted tactics to allow temporary withdrawal from forward positions, followed by drone strikes to retake them.

Defections have also increased. A Russian drone operator, Mirislav Simonov of the Rubicon unit, surrendered through Ukraine’s I Want to Live project, alleging abuse, intimidation and orders to target civilians. Another Russian junior sergeant from the 1435 Regiment, Denis Kolesnikov, claimed that more than half his unit had been executed or sent to the front after refusing to pay commanders between 1 million and 3 million roubles per person, equivalent to roughly 10,900 to 32,700 US dollars at current exchange rates. He said he fled via Rostov to Moscow.

President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Munich Security Conference that Ukraine is ready to hold elections after a two month ceasefire backed by the United States. The Institute for the Study of War said Moscow’s demand for elections is linked to efforts to influence Ukraine’s political direction and warned that security guarantees must precede any territorial settlement.

Separately, the United States is deploying additional naval assets to the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean amid tensions with Iran, including the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald Ford carrier groups and F35 aircraft. Analysts warn that any escalation could have wider regional consequences.

In Germany, a new factory has opened to produce Ukrainian drones. Zelensky visited the site to receive the first Ukrainian made drone produced on German soil.

Ukraine is on the counterattack in Zaporizhzhia and has cleared Russian soldiers from all the territory that Russia has claimed to have taken the last two months. Ukraine has struck the Ilsky Refinery again and the fire there burned for more than a day. Russian soldiers who have recently defected are telling how bad conditions are for Russian soldiers.