(KYIV) The Ukrainian armed forces have successfully retaken 400 square kilometres of territory and liberated eight settlements during February. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the advance as astonishing territorial gains. Military analysts attribute the shift to severe structural problems within the Russian military, including critical communication failures and manpower exhaustion. Ukraine now controls more territory than it did in June 2022, confirming that Russian forces have failed to restore their positions from 44 months ago. Scott Lucas, a professor of international politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin and editor in chief of EA Worldview, stated that while the situation is not completely a stalemate, the conflict will not be decided solely by front line breakthroughs.
Speaking at Chatham House in London, Ukraine Ambassador to the UK and former commander in chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi detailed how the war has entered a new phase defined by robotics and artificial intelligence. Zaluzhnyi explained that the ability to strike targets 25 kilometres behind enemy lines has fundamentally altered the dynamics of attack and defence. This technological advantage was recently demonstrated in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. Russian forces had been utilising unverified Starlink satellite terminals to guide their drone warfare and long range strikes. Following an intervention by Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who requested that Elon Musk restrict the network exclusively to verified Ukrainian terminals, Russian communication infrastructure collapsed.
The communication blackout coincided with a misguided Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia. The Russian dictator had pushed his forces to overextend in a desperate attempt to secure a propaganda victory ahead of the fourth anniversary of the full scale invasion. Ukrainian forces quickly capitalised on the resulting disarray, neutralising the minor Russian advances. Beyond the immediate front lines, Ukraine has intensified its deep strike campaign against the Russian military industrial complex. A recent operation targeted a missile factory in the Udmurt Republic using the new domestically produced Flamingo FB5 long range pink missile.
Ukraine is rapidly expanding its domestic drone production capabilities through joint manufacturing agreements with European nations. Pacts have already been announced with France, Germany, and the UK, and Kyiv is currently pursuing a total of ten such international agreements. This strategy is inflicting severe economic damage on the Russian war machine. The Beriev aircraft plant in Taganrog recently reported a 65 million US Dollar loss for 2025, which equates to approximately 51 million British Pounds.
The Kremlin has attempted to counter these setbacks by launching devastating strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Odesa, Kyiv, and Lviv. Despite enduring the harshest winter of the war, Ukraine has survived the onslaught and is now recovering as warmer spring weather arrives. Conversely, the Russian economy is showing deep signs of systemic strain. The Kremlin has been forced to increase taxes, slash social spending, and cut military bonuses. Facing severe recruitment shortages, Moscow is increasingly relying on foreign mercenaries to feed a conflict that has already claimed between 1.3 million and 1.4 million Russian casualties. Ukraine is currently aiming to increase the Russian casualty rate from 30,000 to 50,000 per month. Professor Lucas compared the Russian military to a tired heavyweight boxer in the late rounds who is entirely incapable of delivering a knockout blow.
On the diplomatic front, the Kremlin is relying on sympathetic European leaders to disrupt Western aid. Following damage to the Druzhba gas pipeline, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to cut electricity supplies to Ukraine. Simultaneously, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is threatening to block a 90 billion Euro loan to Ukraine, which equates to approximately 97 billion US Dollars, alongside the 20th set of European Union sanctions against Russia. Analysts believe Orban is adopting a disruptive stance purely to appeal to domestic voters ahead of challenging April elections against opposition leader Peter Magyar.
Any prospect of a negotiated peace remains nonexistent due to the maximalist demands of the Russian dictator. The Kremlin continues to demand the total surrender of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, refuses to allow Ukraine to secure meaningful European or American security guarantees, and insists on retaining control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Professor Lucas noted that the Russian dictator views the subjugation of a weakened Ukraine as his ultimate legacy project and will not abandon it despite catastrophic casualties. Moscow is concurrently holding out hope that it can manipulate the incoming Trump administration to force a capitulation.
Finally, Professor Lucas strongly condemned recent comments by former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who suggested deploying non combat UK troops to Ukraine. Lucas warned that placing British soldiers near the front lines would immediately make them targets and provide Moscow with a massive propaganda victory by allowing the Kremlin to play the victim. He noted that Johnson previously handed Russian propagandists a major victory during the 2022 Istanbul talks and suggested the former Prime Minister is motivated purely by a desire to return to power rather than the survival of the Ukrainian state.
