(KYIV, UKRAINE) – The Kremlin has reiterated maximalist demands for Ukraine to cede four occupied regions, a move analysts describe as a psychological pressure tactic born of Russia’s mounting battlefield losses and deepening economic strain.
Dmitry Peskov, press secretary for the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, stated on Monday that hostilities would cease only if Ukrainian forces withdrew completely from what Moscow illegally terms its “new territories”, namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts.
The declaration comes despite growing evidence of Russian military exhaustion and resource depletion, prompting experts to question whether Moscow is genuinely open to talks or merely attempting to fracture Ukrainian morale.
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, an international expert and candidate of political sciences, told UNN in an exclusive comment that the negotiation process remains effectively frozen. He noted that no tangible signs point towards a credible ceasefire agreement.
Zhelikhovsky acknowledged that certain diplomatic signals persist. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently indicated that Donald Trump’s special representatives, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, might visit Ukraine shortly. However, no such visit has materialised on either side.
“I do not rule out that this could be an element of an attempt to revive the negotiation process. We have also heard statements from Russia about a possible visit by Witkoff to Moscow. But so far, we see that no one is arriving in either Ukraine or Russia. And this, in my opinion, is due to the fact that the parties do not see a real possibility of agreeing even on a ceasefire,” Zhelikhovsky explained.
The expert added that the Trump administration’s attention is currently absorbed by the Middle East and other international crises. “Washington already has plenty of problems as it is. Therefore, the American side is not very actively trying to restart the Ukrainian-Russian negotiation track,” he said.
Zhelikhovsky stressed that Russia is confronting increasingly serious military and economic headwinds. He argued that the Russian economy is being steadily hollowed out by the war effort and that the resources required to sustain a large scale offensive are shrinking.
“There is already a lot of information that Russia lacks financial and other resources to continue this war in the format the Kremlin is conducting it now. The economy is losing, problems are mounting. In parallel, the number of losses among the Russian military is also growing,” he said.
The analyst assessed that the Russian dictator is deeply fearful of announcing a broader mass mobilisation, a step that would risk stoking discontent in major urban centres like Moscow. Consequently, the Kremlin is still attempting to rely on financial incentives and recruitment contracts to replenish its ranks, a model Zhelikhovsky believes is failing.
“Putin is very afraid of a major mobilization. Because it would affect not only remote regions but also Moscow and large cities. This could create internal tension within Russia itself. Therefore, he is still trying to balance – stimulating the signing of contracts, attracting people with money and various bonuses,” Zhelikhovsky explained.
“Previously, this system still worked, but now it is no longer as effective. Primarily because Ukraine has become much more technological in the war. The capabilities of unmanned systems have increased; Ukraine is literally destroying the enemy’s manpower. And Putin understands perfectly well that he will no longer achieve his goals with ‘cannon fodder’ alone,” the expert noted.
According to Zhelikhovsky, the widening gap between the Kremlin’s ambitions and its military reality has forced it to escalate terror attacks against Ukrainian civilians. He argued that mass shelling of cities and the simultaneous rhetoric about a swift end to the war form a single psychological operation.
“Russia is trying to break the will of Ukrainians to resist. They want to get at least some results. And the minimum that could satisfy Putin is full control over Donbas,” he said.
Addressing Peskov’s claim that the war could end rapidly following a Ukrainian withdrawal, Zhelikhovsky emphasised that such messaging targets Ukrainian society directly. “This is not about real negotiations. This is an attempt to pressure Ukrainians through fear, fatigue, and constant shelling. The Russians want to impose the idea that if Ukraine gives up some territories, the war will end immediately,” he explained.
The expert likened the Kremlin’s strategy to the logic of an abuser, employing terrorist violence to coerce concessions. “Russia is behaving like a classic terrorist. Through strikes on civilians and psychological pressure, they are trying to break people. This is very similar to the logic of domestic violence: first terror, and then an offer of ‘peace’ in exchange for concessions,” Zhelikhovsky noted.
While past peace concepts have occasionally focused more narrowly on Donbas, Zhelikhovsky noted that Moscow’s official demands remain uncompromising. He suggested that the Luhansk region is viewed by the Kremlin as largely under its control, making the Donetsk region a potential focal point for hypothetical territorial compromise.
“If we are talking about a potential compromise from Russia, it could specifically concern the Donetsk region. Luhansk region, as they believe, is already almost completely controlled. But for now, it is hard to say how ready the Kremlin really is for concessions,” he said.
Zhelikhovsky concluded that Moscow’s entrenched ultimatum based approach remains the primary obstacle to serious progress. “Russia continues to issue ultimatums that Ukraine cannot accept. And until this logic changes, it is very difficult to talk about serious progress in negotiations,” the expert summarised.
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