Social Media Curbs Signal Possible Shift to New Mobilisation in Russia

(KYIV) – Analysts and commentators say Russia may be increasing internal controls, including restrictions on social media, as pressure mounts on the Kremlin over its war against Ukraine.

In a discussion broadcast online, Ukrainian presenter Nataliia Lutsenko and former British serviceman and Ukrainian marine Shaun Pinner examined whether Russia’s growing isolation could signal preparations for a new wave of mobilisation.

Pinner said the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin faces rising pressure due to sustained casualties and battlefield losses. He argued that Moscow may have limited options, stating that it may need either to mobilise additional forces or enter negotiations. He added that current trends increasingly favour Ukraine.

He noted that Russia is struggling to sustain its casualty rate and that recruitment may not be keeping pace. According to his assessment, Ukraine is now inflicting losses at a rate that challenges Russia’s ability to replace personnel.

Pinner also pointed to economic pressures, including a growing budget deficit, as an additional constraint on Russia’s war effort. He said the situation could worsen depending on the level of external support, including from China.

He suggested that over time, economic strain could affect Russia’s ability to continue the conflict, noting that similar pressures have influenced outcomes in the past.

The discussion also addressed political developments in Europe. Pinner said changes in Hungary could reduce obstacles to financial support for Ukraine, including previously delayed funding estimated at around 90 billion euros, approximately 97 billion US dollars. He said this could provide greater stability for Ukraine’s finances and military planning.

He added that sustained international backing remains critical, emphasising that Ukraine is unlikely to concede territory given the scale of losses already endured.

Quoting a phrase associated with Winston Churchill, Pinner described the war as being beyond the beginning but not yet near its conclusion. He suggested the conflict may continue into next year, with no immediate end in sight.

The discussion also touched on wider geopolitical dynamics, including the stance of the United States and internal debates within Russia. Pinner noted that criticism of the war has become more visible among some Russian commentators, which he described as unusual given the level of state control over media.

Lutsenko highlighted reports of shifting alliances and suggested that Russia may be losing support in some regions. She also referred to statements that Ukraine should determine the terms of any eventual settlement.

On the battlefield, Pinner said that while some areas have seen periods of reduced activity, fighting continues. He described recent claims of a ceasefire as unreliable, citing reports of widespread violations within the first 24 hours.

He added that allegations of abuses, including against prisoners of war, require verification but, if confirmed, would constitute serious breaches of international law.

Pinner said Russian forces continue to suffer significant daily losses, estimated at more than 1,000 personnel killed or injured, equivalent to roughly two battalions per day.