Former NATO Commander Sees Path to Victory in Ukraine’s Deep Strikes

(BUDAPEST) – Hungary’s recent electoral outcome represents a significant strategic setback for the Russian dictator and a potential turning point for European security cohesion, according to former US Army Europe commander General Ben Hodges.

The political shift in Budapest is expected to unblock stalled European Union funding packages earmarked for Ukraine and to erode the Kremlin’s ability to disrupt NATO consensus via its preferred proxies. The removal of the primary obstructionist voice within the bloc comes as Ukrainian forces demonstrate increasing sophistication in targeting the Russian Federation’s economic centre of gravity: its oil and gas export infrastructure.

General Hodges, speaking on the geopolitical podcast “The Global Gambit,” assessed that the Hungarian result delivers a dual benefit. First, it paves the way for the release of substantial EU financial support to Kyiv, a development described as “just in time” for Ukraine’s sustained defence requirements.

Second, it shines a bright light on the “gray zone operations” and overt interference conducted by the Russian regime, including the well documented coordination between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the previous Hungarian administration. The General noted that public exposure of such interference is a critical step toward neutralising the Kremlin’s subversive tactics across Europe.

Turning to the broader strategic picture, General Hodges expressed continued admiration for the Ukrainian military’s adaptive capabilities, specifically highlighting the efficacy of long range precision strikes against Russian energy assets.

“The Ukrainians, I continue to be impressed with how well they have figured out not only how to stop Russia’s ground operations… but also their ability to hit Russia’s oil and gas production and export capability,” Hodges stated.

He identified this systematic degradation as Kyiv’s clearest path to victory. Even with the temporary fiscal windfall Moscow receives from elevated global oil prices driven by instability in the Middle East, the permanent destruction of extraction and refining capacity inflicts irreparable damage on the Kremlin’s war economy. Hodges estimated that between forty and fifty percent of Russia’s oil and gas export capability has been either destroyed or severely damaged.

The conversation also addressed the precarious state of transatlantic relations and the potential for unilateral United States policy shifts under the current administration. While acknowledging that a formal US withdrawal from NATO requires a two thirds majority in Congress under the National Defense Authorization Act of 2024, Hodges warned that moving US military assets within Europe as a punitive measure against allies like Spain would constitute strategic self sabotage.

The infrastructure at naval bases such as Rota is integral to US global logistics, ballistic missile defence, and power projection, not merely a garrison for local defence. Hodges argued that relocating these assets is a complex, months long endeavour that undermines the trust essential for alliance cohesion.

Such actions, he cautioned, risk emboldening the Russian dictator by creating the perception of a fractured Western alliance, potentially leading to a “terrible miscalculation” by the Kremlin regarding NATO’s collective resolve.

On the battlefield, General Hodges observed a definitive shift in momentum favouring Ukraine. He dismissed recurring speculation about large scale Russian spring offensives as “the most talked about, seldom seen fact of the war,” noting that such operations historically yield little beyond catastrophic Russian casualty figures.

The combination of Ukrainian drone warfare dominance and the relentless targeting of rear area logistics and energy infrastructure has created a situation where Russian attrition rates appear to exceed the Kremlin’s capacity to recruit and train replacements.

While acknowledging that Russian missile terror against Ukrainian civilians continues unabated, Hodges suggested the strategic outlook for the Russian dictator is increasingly bleak.

The war criminal’s reported solicitation of financial contributions from oligarchs signals internal economic strain, and the bearish sentiment expressed by influential Russian military bloggers suggests that the Kremlin’s confidence is wavering as Kyiv’s tactical and strategic strikes continue to exact a heavy toll.