Putin suddenly looks ‘his age’ as Russia’s war machine ‘stutters’ | John Lough

(LONDON) – The Russian war machine is showing clear signs of strain, according to a senior research fellow, as the Russian dictator appeared visibly aged and his traditional Victory Day parade was dramatically scaled back amid security fears.

John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategy Centre, speaking to Times Radio’s Frontline programme, noted that the Russian dictator “looked his age” during a press conference following the 9 May parade. “He looks a much older man. And let us face it, he has been in a very high stress position now for 25 years,” Lough said. “I imagine that also has a certain aging effect. So how good is his judgment?”

The assessment came as the Russian dictator unexpectedly hinted that the war in Ukraine could be coming to an end after more than four years of fighting and massive Russian losses. Speaking after Russia’s Victory Day parade, he told reporters, “I think that the matter is coming to an end,” though the Kremlin later insisted that any peace deal is still a very long way off.

“It is the first time that he has used language of that kind and I think analysts are right to pay attention because he does tend to choose his words very carefully,” Lough said. However, he cautioned that the Russian dictator has been hinting for well over a year and a half that Russia is on the verge of winning the war. “I still believe that he thinks that Russia can win, that it is simply a matter of time before Ukraine runs out of the capacity to continue fighting, indeed the will perhaps to fight.”

The Ukrainian population endured a terrible winter because of extensive bombardment of energy infrastructure, Lough noted. “They have emerged from that. They have had a good few months where they have started striking deeper into the Russian rear. It is clear that Ukraine has formidable powers of innovation when it comes to developing missile and drone systems.”

Lough stated that Ukraine has demonstrated an ability to inflict substantial damage across a very wide area of Russia, noting that Russia is short of air defences. “Given such a vast country, it is difficult to defend everywhere at the same time. On the front line, the Ukrainians have definitely made some progress in areas which I believe in fact are less important to Russia.”

The analyst observed that there are signs the Russian war machine is stuttering, even though Russia is benefiting from much higher oil prices. “There is this overall sense that things are not going that well on the Russian side. Russia of course still, I think, can draw on vast reserves. Economically they can still keep going, they have the human resources if they need to continue fighting this war, but it is definitely becoming more uncomfortable.”

The Victory Day parade was heavily cut back compared to the previous year, which admittedly marked the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two. “There is a sense of emptiness,” Lough said. “The message from the Kremlin has become very stale, that we are close to winning this war, we just have to keep going, and then it does not happen.”

Lough suggested the Russian dictator may be considering other options, having invested significant effort in persuading President Trump to help Russia find a way out of the situation. “That has not worked very well. Trump overestimated his capabilities. He is now distracted, of course, by the war against Iran. It seems that the Americans maybe are losing interest.”

On the diplomatic front, EU foreign ministers are discussing whether Europe should begin direct talks with Russia over Ukraine instead of mainly relying on US led diplomacy. This move comes after growing frustration among Europeans that peace efforts have stalled and that Trump is dominating negotiations. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow is open to dialogue between Europe and Russia.

The talks highlight growing concern over Europe being sidelined from future peace negotiations. Lough expressed scepticism about whether the Russian dictator would engage meaningfully. “My feeling is that Putin will be uncomfortable about negotiating with Europe because it is going to be much harder than talking to Messrs Trump and Kushner. The core of the European position will be formed by France, Germany, Sweden, Finland, the Northern Europeans. The UK of course will be there in the wings.”

On whether the Russian dictator retains leverage to demand land concessions, Lough said, “Unfortunately, I think he does, because he has the resources to go on fighting. It will become progressively more difficult. But in a war of this kind, the advantage is always relative. He believes, and he may not be wrong, that he has time on his side compared to Ukraine.”

Lough acknowledged that Ukraine faces a manpower problem of its own, with many young men reluctant to fight. “But at the same time, the Ukrainian military have adapted to the situation. The way they are using drones and unmanned vehicles, they are, I think, succeeding to a large extent in negating that numerical advantage that the Russians have.”

The Russian dictator has expressed hope that more sympathetic figures from far right parties will come to power in Europe, Lough noted, citing the AfD in Germany and Le Pen’s party in France. “But he has lost, interestingly, an important ally in Europe recently, and that is Victor Orban. That is certainly going to make it easier for the EU to unite.”

Recent analysis from the Atlantic Council and CFR has highlighted that the war is no longer a distant conflict for ordinary Russians. Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted flights, triggered heavy security crackdowns in Moscow, and brought visible fear and instability ahead of Victory Day. The parade reportedly looked smaller and weaker, with fewer tanks and tighter security, limiting international support for the Russian dictator.

Russia has reportedly lost one million soldiers, with many more wounded. Both pieces argue that cracks are beginning to show in the dictator’s image of total control, as economic strain, anxiety, and insecurity increasingly affect ordinary Russians.

Lough commented, “These set piece occasions are important because we can measure them against previous years. What one could sense this time was there is less confidence on the Russian side. The Kremlin was very worried about the possibility that Ukraine could attack the parade or disrupt the preparations by a drone strike. That tells you something: if they are worried about central Moscow being hit, then there must be a problem somewhere with their air defences.”

The Russian dictator effectively had to get Trump to intercede and suggest a ceasefire. Lough observed, “Zelenskiy unexpectedly won this duel and then he mocked Putin by issuing this decree permitting the parade in Moscow to go ahead, which I think must have absolutely infuriated people in the Kremlin.”

The analyst added that more Russians have had their lives disrupted by drone and missile strikes. “Ukraine has shown it can attack targets deep into the Russian rear. While those may not be paralysing Russia’s oil exports or its ability to refine crude oil, they are undoubtedly having some sort of effect. The symbolic effect is of itself important because one of the war aims when Putin started this misadventure in 2022 was to make the Russian Federation more secure. Many people can sense that they are in fact less secure.”

Heavy handed actions by authorities, including shutting down mobile internet in Moscow for days, have disadvantaged business people who rely on connectivity. “You can see a constituency of people developing who are very unhappy with the way the authorities are dealing with things.”

Lough also referenced an ecological disaster developing on the Black Sea coast, where Ukrainian strikes on a refinery at Tapse have caused oil to leak into the sea, potentially spoiling a large stretch of holiday beaches. “The reaction of Putin in this situation is simply to disappear from sight, to then say that the governor is dealing with it and everything is fine. At local level, people are somewhat outraged by the behaviour of their leader because they expect the president in Moscow to help them.”

The analyst described this as a trope of Russian history, where the good tsar should be helping people out. “In this case, he has gone missing in action. All in all, there is definitely some sort of mood shift taking place. But I think we have to be careful about suggesting there are cracks appearing. We see some signs of greater criticism of what is going on in the country, particularly the economic course. We are not seeing open questioning of the purpose of the war.”

Lough dismissed suggestions of an imminent palace coup or revolution as fantasy at this stage, but noted that the Russian dictator’s speech had been met with fatigue. “It is just a reflection of the fact that the message is not changing. People have heard it for a long time and are probably expecting something new. It is a further indication that Putin has got bogged down in Ukraine, cannot find an easy way out of this without losing face, because this war for him is existential.”

“My strong belief is that if for whatever reason he were to leave the Kremlin tomorrow or be incapable of carrying out his duties, the war would end immediately. This is very much Putin’s war,” Lough stated, adding that the dictator has taken the elites with him because they have absolutely no choice.

On casualty figures, Lough said, “I suspect they are higher actually, that Russia has lost probably over 400,000 men in this war, and then certainly upwards of 700,000 seriously injured. More and more questions have to be asked about what is the point of this. Many more Russians know people now who have either fought in the war, died in the war, or who have been seriously injured.”

He added that Ukraine’s strategy must be to exhaust the will of the Russian population and elites to sustain the war. “One would say probably they are making some progress. In terms of completely exhausting Russia’s capacity to carry on, I believe they are still a very long way away from that. But it does not mean to say that they are not creating a situation which is becoming more difficult for the Kremlin to manage.”

Lough warned that in Russia’s heavily centralised system, the dictator and his inner circle simply cannot deal with all emerging problems simultaneously. “I think that is a serious risk they face. But we do not see at the moment signs that this is about to happen. One cannot exclude the fact that life for Putin and those people in those top decision making positions may become much more complicated.”

The analyst was particularly struck by a remark the Russian dictator made about Finland during his press conference. “He effectively said he believed that the Finns had joined NATO in order to recover territory that they lost to the Soviet Union in 1940. This is completely ridiculous. Putin has been to Finland many times, he knows people there. The fact that he seems to automatically assume that the country would join NATO not because they want to defend themselves against Russian aggression, and Finland took this decision very carefully over a long period, but the idea that Finland, given the size the country is, would then be seeking to recover territory it had lost 80 to 85 years ago, is just extraordinary.”

Lough concluded, “That is an insight into his mental map, and simply the way he thinks about the world, and that in many respects is quite alarming.”

This interview was broadcast on the Frontline programme, produced by Times Radio.