(MOSCOW, RUSSIA) – Ukraine has effectively paralysed fuel production across central Russia through a sustained campaign of long range drone strikes, forcing the closure of the nation’s largest oil refineries and pushing the Russian energy sector to the brink of a permanent shutdown.
Practically all of the largest oil refineries in central Russia have either fully stopped or significantly reduced fuel production. This is according to a Reuters report confirming that a wave of large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks has achieved a critical objective.
The immediate consequence is a severe fuel shortage in the Russian capital. After the two closest oil refineries to Moscow stopped operating, they could no longer supply the city with the necessary petrol. The Russian capital now lacks approximately 30 percent of its petrol and 25 percent of its diesel, according to various sources. This shortage compounds the fear and panic already present as residents experience air raid alerts and are forced to hide in parking lots.
The strikes have systematically dismantled production across the European part of the country. The Ryazan oil refinery, one of Russia’s largest and responsible for over 5 percent of the nation’s oil products, will not return to operation until at least the end of June, according to internal Russian sources. The Moscow oil refinery was also recently targeted. Other disabled facilities include refineries in Yaroslavl and Kirishi. These non-operational plants previously produced a combined total of 83 million tonnes of oil products per year, representing a serious gap in the Russian federal budget.
The financial damage is crippling the state and its most powerful corporations. The Russian federal budget already lacks six trillion roubles ($65.5 billion USD), a figure far worse than any projection for the whole of 2026. The strikes on the Ryazan refinery have switched off income for Rosneft, while the strike on the Moscow refinery did the same for Gazprom. These companies, once global symbols of Russian wealth and success, are now on the list of debtors.
As a resource dependent country, Russia cannot substitute its energy exports with anything else and is not competitive on the global market. The most critical long-term threat, however, is the emerging need to halt oil extraction entirely. Successful Russian oil companies like Tatneft are discussing the need to stop mining and close wells because they lack the capacity to store or refine the crude oil. Experts note that shutting down extraction is a potentially deadly measure for the industry, as in most cases it is impossible to return the wells to normal operation. This means Russia is on the brink of permanently killing entire sections of its oil industry.
The crisis is also fuelling domestic dissent. More and more people are openly criticising the Russian dictator, as the public mood shifts rapidly. Vloggers and even deputies are voicing criticism with no consequences, signalling a fragmentation of the Kremlin’s traditional control. The economic paralysis, combined with the visible failure to protect Moscow, is accelerating these political fissures.
The success of the campaign marks a dramatic evolution in capability. What began in 2023 with a small depot strike somewhere in Belgorod has now resulted in the shutdown of all central Russia’s oil refineries. The campaign is described as a core strategy to paralyse the Russian war machine, given that every third rouble from the federal budget is used to destroy lives in Ukraine. Footage of the strikes was released by the press service of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and other units, showcasing operations in the Ryazan and Moscow oblasts.Â
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