(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Military analysts and former government advisors state that the Russian military is currently sustaining approximately 38,000 to 50,000 casualties every month as the full scale invasion reaches its fourth anniversary. General Ben Hodges, the former commander of the United States Army in Europe, joined Maxim Tucker of The Times and former Ukrainian defence advisor Yuriy Sak to reflect on the conflict and outline a strategic path forward. General Hodges noted that the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to oversee an inexorable but costly advance while Ukrainian forces concentrate on high volume attrition. The General admitted that Western analysts initially overestimated the capabilities of the Russian military because they failed to account for the depth of internal corruption and the lack of combat experience among conscripts. He remarked that the Russian forces appeared to have watched parts of a movie on Western air landing operations but missed the sections regarding the immediate destruction of enemy communications.
The panel highlighted that the Ukrainian people have surprised international observers through their collective resolve and engineering ingenuity. Mr Sak noted that Ukraine has transformed into a global superpower regarding drones and is currently producing more than 3 million First Person View units annually. This technological pivot has allowed Kyiv to eject the Russian fleet from the Black Sea basin despite not possessing a traditional navy. He outlined a three pillar victory plan involving the local production of air defences, the maintenance of high Russian attrition rates, and the continued economic suffocation of the Kremlin. This strategy specifically targets the ability of the Russian dictator to export oil and gas through the destruction of refineries and the targeting of the shadow fleet.
Regarding the strategic map, General Hodges criticised the media focus on small villages in the far eastern five per cent of Ukraine. He argued that the capture of Avdiivka, which took the Russian military two years to achieve, is being treated with undue gravity by sceptical observers. He suggested that if the United States and European allies had committed to the total defeat of the Russian forces from the outset rather than providing support on a restrictive basis, the war could have concluded two years ago. The panel expressed concern that the United States may be moving away from its role as a security guarantor, placing the onus on European nations to bridge the funding and hardware gap.
The discussion also addressed the internal challenges facing Kyiv, including manpower and the necessity for more transparent recruitment. Mr Tucker explained that the Russian propaganda machine is actively weaponizing images of draft officers to create social friction. He suggested that Ukraine must professionalise its mobilisation to ensure young citizens are trained in advanced technology before deployment. Mr Sak concluded by comparing the current Russian state to the Titanic, suggesting the orchestra is still playing in Moscow while the vessel is nearing a vertical tipping point. He maintained that the war is fundamentally unwinnable for the Russian dictator and that a just settlement will only occur when the Kremlin is forced to accept reality.
