(BAMAKO, MALI) – The Russian military footprint in Africa is suffering a dramatic and rapid collapse, with Russian linked forces fleeing multiple strongholds across Mali in the space of 24 hours. The retreat marks a significant blow to the Kremlin’s years long strategy to entrench itself across the Sahel region. The Russian backed military occupation of Mali is faltering badly, with the Africa Corps, the rebranded successor to the Wagner mercenary group, losing several cities over the past few days. Russian military bloggers have confirmed that one of their helicopters was shot down and its crew and a mobile fire group on board were killed. The preliminary cause was external fire damage from an anti aircraft missile system. Footage released by Malian rebel groups showed the helicopter burning.
This collapse is unfolding city by city. The city of Burr became the fourth location in northern Mali to be handed over peacefully from the Russian Africa Corps and the Malian army to a coalition of rebel groups. In the city of Kidal, lost approximately 24 hours prior, Russian forces abandoned a multi million dollar Bayraktar drone control centre, a mobile unit that rebel fighters were later filmed inspecting. The retreating personnel left behind food and bottles of water in their haste. Additional reports indicate another 100 personnel from the Russian backed Malian army surrendered as momentum shifted decisively against them. Some Russian elements are fleeing north to Algeria, while others head south towards the capital, Bamako, where government control remains for now.
The strategic implications are severe for the Russian dictator, who viewed the Sahel region, including Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, as a vital economic engine to fuel his war machine. The complete failure to hold territory undermines that objective. Compounding the military disaster, the Malian defence minister, a key Putin ally within the military junta that seized power with Russian backing, was killed by rebels. Significantly, the Trump administration had been quietly lifting sanctions on this Russian backed dictatorship just two months prior, an action that drew limited mainstream media coverage at the time.
As the empire building project in Africa implodes, anti government sentiment continues to rise sharply inside Russia. At the annual Shanson Music Awards in Moscow, a prominent State Duma deputy was brutally heckled and booed off the stage as he attempted to calm an angry crowd. The episode is symbolic of a broader organic shift, where public figures are increasingly targeted with open scorn.
A popular Russian military blogger, filming during a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea, directly challenged the Russian dictator over the allocation of air defences. With explosions and small arms fire audible in the background, he demanded to know how things were in Valdai, referring to Putin’s heavily fortified palace, which military commentators claim now has more air protection than the city of Moscow. The simmering anger is reflected in the dictatorship’s own curated metrics. A state run pollster shows Putin’s manipulated approval rating is now in a vertical descent, returning to the lows that preceded the full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s central bank data indicates that business investment has collapsed to a level not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, a period the current economic disease has now replaced. This strain is visible across society. In the oil soaked city of Tuapse, which has been hit by repeated Ukrainian strikes, residents are outraged that the government’s remedy for a massive ecological disaster involves sending workers with shovels and plastic bins. One resident asked, “Is Russia really so weak that we do not have equipment? And what era is it anyway? Worse than pre-revolutionary times?” Another lamented that the administration pays little attention, concluding, “I think it is ultimately the government’s attitude toward the people.”
The public mood, particularly among the young, is darkening to a degree not previously seen. In street interviews conducted in Moscow, university students offered blunt defeatist assessments when asked about the war in Ukraine. One male student stated plainly, “Losing. Well, international isolation, economic difficulties… In any case, losing and brain drain. Anyone with a brain has long since left Russia and in general only downsides.” Another said, “I see only bad outcomes.” A young woman elaborated, “Our economy is suffering,” and when asked if she would like the Russian government to win, stated, “I would like them to lose… because all this I very much do not like.” She further cited the destruction of Ukrainian cities including Bakhmut, Mariupol, and Melitopol, and accurately predicted Russia would eventually be forced to pay reparations.
This sentiment is fuelled by the widening battlefield. Ukrainian drone operations are now striking targets over 2,000 kilometres from the front line, far beyond the Ural Mountains. Russian military bloggers had recently urged the relocation of industrial assets east of the Urals for protection, only for Ukraine to strike the cities of Yekaterinburg and Chelyabinsk days later. A woman who had moved from Yekaterinburg to Belgorod for safety reported her shock, noting that 50 people were evacuated from her former street.
The catastrophe is also hitting the consumer sector. Russia’s largest chain of cosmetics outlets, Leto, has announced it will close an additional 150 stores this year. A marketing director for the company described the mass closures as a “network optimisation,” following the closure of 93 stores the previous year. Further grisly reports from the front lines in Ukraine’s Donetsk region indicate that a Russian soldier was killed during an arrest attempt after he allegedly killed and consumed two of his comrades amid winter food shortages.
In stark contrast, a life was saved using advanced technology by Ukrainian forces deep in the grey zone near Lyman, Donetsk region. Pilots of the 60th Mechanised Brigade spotted a 77 year old woman walking alone along a road under shelling, with only craters and the bodies of neighbours remaining in her destroyed village. Fighters from the Cerberus unmanned systems unit dispatched a ground robot towards her. To avoid scaring her, they covered it with a blanket and wrote a simple message: “Grandma, sit.” She climbed on, and for four hours under constant threat, the robot carried her to safety where soldiers evacuated her via an armoured personnel carrier. This is one of over 9,000 successful ground robot operations conducted monthly by the Ukrainian armed forces.
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