(PRZEMYŚL, POLAND) – The European Union has adopted its 20th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting Chinese entities for the first time in a move that drew an immediate and furious response from Beijing.
The measures, passed alongside a 90 billion euro (97 billion US dollar) loan facility for Ukraine, were unblocked after Hungary’s government lost its pro-Russian elements. For years, Budapest had acted as a brake on restrictive measures and, according to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, kept Moscow informed of confidential EU deliberations.
Tusk stated that following the Hungarian elections, a palpable sense of relief pervaded the council. “Yesterday you could feel huge relief among leaders because it was, you know, for the first time in years that there were no Russians in the room,” he said. Tusk noted that Hungary’s foreign minister previously kept the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov “in the loop exactly what is happening in the councils of the European Union”.
The moment was briefly punctured by the arrival of Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who remains the other major impediment to a unified European front against Moscow.
The new sanctions are extremely painful for the Russian war economy. Without China, Russia could not wage this war. Drone munitions, fibre optics, clothing, and gear all come from China. For the first time, Chinese entities have been targeted which are involved in supplying Russia with dual use goods and components for its military industry. Beijing called this a “breach of trust” and a violation of agreements with the EU.
On the industrial front, Germany has reached a major milestone. Rheinmetall’s annual production capacity for artillery shells has increased from 70,000 in 2022 to 1.1 million, surpassing the United States which currently produces between 600,000 and 700,000 shells per year. Germany also increased production of medium calibre ammunition from 800,000 to over 4 million units, and military truck output rose from 600 to 4,500. The shift to a wartime economic footing demonstrates that Europe is an industrial giant capable of sustaining the effort if the political will is maintained.
The strategic depth historically protecting Russia’s military industry has been erased. On 25 April, Ukrainian drones were filmed flying over the Ural Mountains, reaching Chelyabinsk and Yekaterinburg, approximately 1,800 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. This marks the first time in history drones have struck targets in these regions, shattering the Kremlin’s narrative of a safe hinterland. The drones were identified as the Ukrainian produced Firepoint version two.
Russian military bloggers reacted with denial. Writing on his Ramzay Telegram channel, Russian journalist Vladislav Shurygin claimed, “Their range is a consequence of the constant modernization of enemy air attack capabilities. Over the past 3 years, Ukrainian drones have increased their range from 700 to 1,800 km and potentially 2,500 km.” He suggested the drones must have come from Kazakhstan, a Russia friendly country, rather than accept Ukrainian technical superiority. Ukrainian military command states they are domestic design and production.
Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that Russia is experiencing a deficit of air defence missiles due to systematic Ukrainian strikes on military infrastructure, weakening the ability to intercept drones and deter attacks.
On 26 April, Ukrainian drones struck the Slavneft YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl, approximately 700 kilometres from Ukraine, flying past the Moscow metropolitan area. Geolocated footage showed a Russian air defence missile attempting, and failing, to intercept the drones. A vacuum oil distillation unit, specifically the ELOU AT 4 primary oil refining unit with a capacity of 4 million tonnes per year, caught fire. The refinery has a total annual capacity of 15 million tonnes. The loss of this unit allowed the decommissioning of obsolete refining blocks, and its destruction now represents a critical capability loss for the Russian energy sector.
Meanwhile, an environmental catastrophe is unfolding along Russia’s Black Sea coast. The resort town of Tuapse and surrounding villages including Dzhubga are inundated with mazut, a thick fuel oil residue. Following strikes days earlier on a major fuel silo farm, half of the storage capacity has been destroyed. Satellite imagery reveals a massive black slick of fuel oil leaking kilometres out to sea. The entire seaside near Tuapse is covered in the viscous substance.
Local authorities in Tuapse issued a statement claiming: “Information disseminated by some sources about the deterioration of the environment is not supported by official data and does not correspond to reality. Soil quality indicators are within established standards.” Videos from the scene show beaches, rivers, and coastal waters blanketed in black oil, with volunteer crews shovelling the sludge into disposal cubes. The holiday season is about to start, threatening the economic ruin of businesses reliant on domestic tourism from Moscow and St. Petersburg. The Russian state narrative appears to mimic the initial denial seen during the Chornobyl disaster, which marked its 40th anniversary on the same day.
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