Putin looking for get out of jail card amid turf war with FSB | Robert Fox

(LONDON) – British defence analyst Robert Fox has said the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin appears to be searching for a way to escape the war in Ukraine as pressure builds inside the Kremlin and concern grows among Russian elites over the conflict’s direction.

Speaking on the “Superpowers” programme hosted by former UK armed forces minister James Heappey on the Frontline channel, Fox said Russia’s leadership was becoming increasingly nervous as Ukraine continued strikes deep inside Russian territory while the frontline remained largely static.

Fox argued that Britain also faces growing security risks and warned that the UK government had failed to show sufficient commitment to long term defence investment ahead of a critical NATO summit scheduled for July in Turkey.

The discussion began with criticism of the UK government’s handling of defence spending following local election setbacks. Fox said the problem was not only funding but a lack of strategic commitment.

He noted that Britain’s strategic defence review had promised a long term defence investment plan but that the Treasury had still not approved it. Fox said current military spending plans contained major gaps and that several expensive programmes may have to be reconsidered.

He highlighted the condition of the Royal Navy, pointing to the Type 23 frigate HMS Iron Duke, which recently underwent a refit costing £111 million, equivalent to about $147 million, but was reportedly withdrawn again because of structural problems linked to the ageing fleet.

Fox said Britain currently had only around three and a half operational frigates and two and a half destroyers available for frontline service, which he described as significantly weaker than the Italian Navy’s current capabilities.

Heappey said new British warships under construction were world class but warned they would not arrive quickly enough to address current vulnerabilities.

Fox said Britain would come under pressure at the NATO summit because alliance members are expected under Article Three of the NATO treaty to maintain credible national defence capabilities.

He warned that Britain risked appearing unprepared in front of NATO allies and US President Donald Trump.

The discussion then turned to Russian military activity and wider European security concerns.

Fox referred to warnings from former NATO secretary general George Robertson, Russian analyst Fiona Hill and retired General Sir Richard Barrons, who have argued that Europe faces an increasingly dangerous security environment.

He said Russian submarine activity around critical underwater infrastructure in the North Sea had become a major concern. Fox claimed Russian vessels may be placing surveillance devices or delayed explosive systems near communications infrastructure.

He referred to reports about Russian underwater systems including so called “mechanical lobsters” capable of moving along the seabed to identify vulnerable targets.

Fox also referenced the 2022 destruction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, saying the incident demonstrated how small teams could inflict major damage on critical infrastructure.

According to Fox, Britain lacks enough frigates and surveillance aircraft to fully monitor these threats.

He warned that some officials still treated defence investment as unnecessary spending despite rising risks.

Fox said the Russian dictator had become increasingly concerned by Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities and infrastructure.

He noted that Ukrainian domestically developed drones and medium range missile systems were now consistently damaging Russian targets and inflicting losses faster than Moscow could replace them.

He also cited recent assessments by the Institute for the Study of War, which suggested frontlines had largely stabilised with neither side making major territorial gains.

Fox argued this situation was making the Kremlin more unpredictable.

He said Russian officials continued issuing threats against Kyiv while Moscow could also increase hybrid operations against NATO states.

Fox warned that Baltic countries, particularly Estonia and Latvia, remained concerned about possible limited Russian incursions or provocations.

He added that Sweden and other northern European states feared Russian activity around strategic islands and maritime choke points in the Baltic Sea.

The discussion also examined fears over chemical and biological threats.

Fox referred to the poisoning of former Russian intelligence officer Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006 and the Novichok attack in Salisbury in 2018.

He said Fiona Hill had warned that Russia could consider unconventional operations involving chemical agents or attacks targeting livestock and food systems.

Heappey responded that many warning signs now resembled those seen before major conflicts in the twentieth century, including territorial aggression, regional crises and growing instability in international relations.

The conversation later shifted to conditions inside Russia.

Fox said growing internet restrictions, tighter controls on mobile phone use and increasing paranoia within the Kremlin suggested rising anxiety among Russian authorities.

He compared the atmosphere in Moscow to the final years of Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, describing a climate in which officials were increasingly afraid to speak openly.

Fox said there were no clear challengers to Putin but argued that declining living standards and war fatigue were placing pressure on the system.

He also claimed Russian propaganda itself revealed signs of insecurity through efforts to suppress information.

The programme also examined Russian naval power.

Fox said Russia had historically struggled to establish effective global naval dominance and argued that Moscow had suffered a significant defeat in the Black Sea despite Ukraine lacking a traditional navy.

He said Ukraine’s use of drones and asymmetric tactics had severely damaged Russian naval prestige.

According to Fox, Moscow would increasingly focus on submarines, remote warfare and covert maritime operations rather than conventional surface fleets.

Fox also discussed China’s position regarding Taiwan.

He argued Chinese leader Xi Jinping was carefully studying the failures of both Russia in Ukraine and the United States in Iran.

Fox suggested Beijing may avoid direct military action against Taiwan because modern military superiority alone no longer guarantees victory.

Instead, he said China could rely more heavily on blockades, economic pressure and strategic leverage.

The discussion concluded with warnings about the growing role of autonomous weapons systems and artificial intelligence in future conflicts.

Fox said military leaders were increasingly concerned they may be developing technologies that could become difficult to control.

The interview was published by Frontline on YouTube on 10 May 2026.

Source: Frontline YouTube channel, interview hosted by James Heappey featuring defence editor Robert Fox.