Hungary After Orban: What’s Next? | DW News

(BUDAPEST, HUNGARY) – Hungary has entered a decisive political transition after Prime Minister Viktor Orban conceded defeat following 16 years in power, marking what analysts describe as a historic turning point for the country and the wider European Union.

Opposition leader Peter Magyar secured a landslide victory in an election that drew record turnout, with supporters celebrating across Budapest. The scale of the result surprised observers, not in polling terms, but in how decisively it translated into parliamentary dominance under Hungary’s electoral system.

Kim Lane Scheppele, Professor of International Affairs at Princeton University, said pre election surveys had indicated a strong performance by Magyar, but Hungary’s non proportional system often distorts outcomes. She said Magyar succeeded by targeting the structural advantages previously used by Orban, delivering a result that exceeded expectations. Orban himself once described his earlier victory as visible from the moon, she noted, adding that this result could be seen from Mars.

The shift in support came largely from Orban’s own voter base. While previous elections saw the opposition dominate urban centres and Orban retain rural areas, this vote produced a nationwide swing. Constituencies that had consistently supported Orban moved decisively to Magyar, often by wide margins.

Scheppele attributed this to Magyar’s strategy of direct engagement. A former figure within Orban’s political camp, Magyar positioned himself within the centre right, appealing to a broad electorate. With Orban maintaining strong control over national media, Magyar bypassed traditional channels by travelling extensively across the country, meeting voters in person and building support at local level.

Orban acknowledged defeat in a brief concession speech, stating that while final results were pending, the outcome was clear and that he had congratulated the winner.

Analysts say Orban’s longevity in power stemmed initially from his 2010 electoral victory following economic crisis, but was sustained by systemic changes that favoured his party. These included electoral reforms and institutional control that critics have described as undermining democratic competition.

Magyar is now expected to inherit a system shaped by those changes. Key institutions, including the presidency and constitutional court, remain staffed by Orban loyalists and may obstruct legislative reforms. However, Magyar’s projected two thirds parliamentary majority would allow constitutional amendments, potentially enabling structural changes.

In his victory speech, Magyar declared that Hungary had replaced the Orban system and reclaimed its future, using language associated with the country’s transition from communism in 1989. Observers say this signals an intention to pursue significant constitutional reform.

Despite the scale of his victory, questions remain about Magyar’s political direction. Largely unknown to the public until recently, he emerged from within the existing political system and built his campaign around anti corruption messaging. His rise was partly linked to a domestic scandal involving a state institution, which exposed divisions within Orban’s administration and prompted his break from the government.

Scheppele said Magyar is likely to maintain elements of Orban’s domestic policy while shifting Hungary’s stance within the European Union. She expects a more cooperative approach with Brussels and a reduction in obstruction over Ukraine related decisions, although public sentiment shaped under Orban may limit more decisive support.

The incoming government faces significant institutional resistance. Orban retains influence through media networks, political structures, and loyal appointees across the judiciary and state bodies. Analysts warn that dismantling this system will be complex and politically contentious.

Magyar has indicated that one of his first steps will be to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, signalling a commitment to address corruption linked to the use of EU funds. This move could unlock financial support from the European Union, which has previously withheld funding over governance concerns.

Internationally, the election result may alter Hungary’s position within Western alliances. Former United States President Donald Trump had publicly backed Orban, while senior figures including JD Vance and Marco Rubio signalled support during the campaign. Their involvement drew criticism and appeared to have limited impact on the final result.

Relations with Russia are also expected to shift. Hungary under Orban had been criticised for advancing Russian interests within EU institutions. Magyar has pledged to reduce such influence, although economic dependencies, particularly in energy, may complicate rapid changes.

Hungary’s reliance on Russian oil and gas has already been disrupted, with supply challenges and infrastructure limitations constraining alternatives. Analysts say diversification will take time, requiring investment and coordination with European partners.

The new government must also address ties with China, including investments in technology and manufacturing that have raised environmental and security concerns. These relationships are expected to be reassessed as Hungary repositions itself internationally.

On Ukraine, the outlook remains cautious. While a change in tone is anticipated, longstanding tensions over minority rights in western Ukraine may continue to shape policy. Magyar is not expected to veto EU initiatives but may seek exemptions in areas involving direct financial commitments.

Despite his electoral defeat, Orban is expected to remain a significant political figure. At 62, he retains influence through domestic networks and his role within European far right alliances. Analysts suggest he may seek to rebuild his position through the European Parliament, where aligned parties continue to operate.