Russia’s Defeat is Now Obvious to the World

(KYIV) – Perceptions of the war in Ukraine have shifted markedly, with mainstream media now acknowledging Russia’s battlefield failures and Ukraine’s significant advances in drone and missile technology. The editorial board of the Wall Street Journal has asked whether Ukraine is turning the Russian tide, noting that the Russian dictator’s shrinking Victory Day parade signals Ukraine’s military advances.

Former US Vice President Mike Pence, a supporter of Ukraine, quoted the article, stating it is a moment to increase support for Ukraine so it can keep the pressure on Russia. He added that only the prospect of greater losses and potential defeat will cause Mr Putin to abandon his imperial ambitions in Ukraine and in Western Europe.

The Economist has also reported that Russia is stumbling on the battlefield, observing that as casualties soar in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin looks ever more beleaguered at home. For the first time in nearly three years, the initiative in the war appears to be shifting towards Ukraine. The magazine writes that Ukraine is gradually changing the course of the war and inflicting increasingly serious damage on Russia. Russia’s spring offensive has effectively failed, following a failed winter offensive.

There is no secret force of hundreds of thousands of soldiers, tanks and jets that will appear out of nowhere. Russia is running out of gas. In April, Russian forces suffered net territorial losses for the first time since August 2024. Over the past 30 days, Russia lost control of 113 square kilometres. Ukrainian drones are striking deeper into Russia’s rear areas, with military and economic targets being hit 2,000 kilometres from the border.

The picture for the Russian dictator is grim. In addition, he is showing weakness to the public, making a statement that he thinks the war is coming to an end soon. It remains unclear whether he expects Ukraine’s unconditional surrender or is willing to stop the conflict, but he is signalling a desire to talk to the Europeans for negotiations.

The current trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia and the United States do not include the Europeans. The Russians have suggested that Gerhard Schröder, the former chancellor of Germany, could be Europe’s representative. EU ministers dismissed this idea. Schröder was chancellor in the early 2000s when Germany began making business deals with the Russians, and upon leaving office he joined the board of Gazprom and was paid tens of millions of dollars. He grew rich by selling out Germany’s energy security and demilitarising Germany just as Putin was preparing for his conquest of Eastern Europe.

The EU and Ukraine have rejected Germany’s former chancellor as a peace talk mediator, labelling him a Russian lobbyist. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna reacted to the proposal by saying it would not be very wise to give Russia the right to appoint a negotiator on Europe’s behalf. He added that Gerhard Schröder has been a high level lobbyist for Russian state owned companies, meaning Putin wants him to be the person sitting on both sides of the table in any negotiation.

Analysts concur that Putin is bluffing about ending the war. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia has no intention of ending this war. If Russia wanted to end the war, it could simply stop attacking and bombing Ukraine, stop seeking more territory, and stop killing civilians. Putin could announce a 30 day ceasefire today, but he does not want to end the war.

What Putin wants from negotiations is for President Zelensky to surrender the rest of the Donetsk Oblast, expecting the Ukrainian military to surrender their best fortifications in the fortress belt cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka. After 12 years of failure to capture these cities and four years of full scale war resulting in 1.3 million casualties, Putin is still demanding more Ukrainian territory in exchange for a possible ceasefire. Appeasing dictators does not work, as they always want more.

Things continue to worsen for the Russians. Russian military bloggers report that Ukraine has reached the main supply route to Crimea, the M14 highway from Rostov-on-Don, 160 to 200 kilometres behind the front line. This highway supplies all Russian forces in the occupied territories, connecting to Kherson and the front in Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine now has drones patrolling this highway, striking any vehicle used by the Russian military.

Video footage has emerged showing a Russian supply vehicle being struck by a Ukrainian drone outside Dzhankoi in Crimea, more than 100 kilometres deep into occupied territory. This was not possible a year ago, but Russia is running out of air defence systems in the occupied territories and Ukraine’s drone technology has leaped forward, giving Ukrainian forces fire suppression on the main highway. Separately, the Russian city of Orenburg, 1,200 kilometres from Ukraine on the border with Kazakhstan, was hit by drones. Video shows a drone slamming into a building, though the specific target remains unidentified.

In the Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian drones destroyed two key air defence radars. One radar could see 250 kilometres out, the other measured altitude at a 300 kilometre range. Radars emit a signal, which Ukraine has been tracking, destroying them systematically over the last year. A compilation video from Ukraine’s Firepoint drone units shows the destruction of a PRV-16 radar, followed by strikes on fuel trucks. With all oil and fuel depots in the occupied territories having been destroyed, Russia must store fuel on rail cars or trucks parked in the open, which are then targeted by drones. The same drones then struck buildings used by the Russian military.

Further illustrating Russian desperation, patrol boats of the Russian Project 21980 class have been fitted with anti-drone cages around the ship. This follows a similar move last year when anti drone cages were installed on submarine hatches to prevent grenades being dropped inside. Even stripped down civilian vehicles used by the Russians are now being fitted with anti drone cages. In another development, video shows the 60th Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine hunting Russian FPV waiters. To save battery life, drone operators from both sides position themselves on known supply routes. Ukraine sweeps these roads with its own drones to identify and destroy the Russian waiters before their supply vehicles are targeted.

Russian frontline assaults are now rare, with 60 to 70 percent of infiltrators dying before reaching Ukrainian lines. According to a Ukrainian lieutenant with the call sign Alex, Russia can no longer gather enough troops for local offensives, leaving small group infiltrations as the main tactic. Troops cannot be concentrated near the contact line without attracting drones, so Russia can only advance in groups of two to four soldiers.

The kill zone is holding, and Russia is not advancing. As long as Ukraine can produce enough relatively cheap fibre optic FPV drones, Russian soldiers cannot be exposed to the open air without being struck. Ukraine’s drone forces now have nearly 100,000 operators hunting day and night up to 50 kilometres deep into the occupied territories. In a further innovation, instead of sending fibre optic drones, Ukrainian forces deployed a UGV, a ground drone, loaded with 300 kilograms of explosives into a building housing a group of about eight Russian soldiers and detonated it.

Evidence of collapsing morale is mounting. Russian military blogger Nikita Tretyakov, who fought in Ukraine, admitted that Putin’s army has no chance of victory. In a post on Victory Day, he wrote that he would not pretend everything is fine, stating that the enemy is getting new weapons and Russia is lagging far behind. He noted that in 2026, Hornet and other medium range drones are draining Russian blood on the front line while ultra long range drones are terrorising the rear from St. Petersburg to the Urals.

Separately, it was revealed that Igor Gusev, the pro-war author of the Russian military blog Channel 13, was sent on a meat assault to die after he criticised Putin in one of his videos. According to whoever helps run his Telegram channel, he was killed. Gusev was reportedly not given time to prepare and was handed a rusty, jammed automatic weapon from a dead soldier.

In Hungary, newly sworn in leader Peter Magyar has set a new tone, saying Hungary will stop using its EU veto as blackmail. In his opening speech, he apologised to the people of Hungary for the actions of the previous government, citing 16 years of oppression. He apologised to civilians, teachers, journalists, health workers and public figures who were stigmatised, harassed or treated as enemies for daring to speak out.

In related international developments, US President Donald Trump has rejected an Iranian deal as oil prices surge and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Iran responded with demands that the US end its blockade of Iranian ports, grant freedom to export oil, lift sanctions, agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon and unfreeze all Iranian assets. Iran stated it does not care about the reaction of the so-called president of the United States, and that no one in Iran drafts plans to please Trump.

An empty tanker attempting to go through the American blockade was fired upon by the US Navy. Oil prices remain above 100 US dollars a barrel, currently at 107, causing inflation to rise. Consumer prices in the US rose 3.8 percent, the highest rate of inflation since May 2023. The US has moved to release more oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, releasing 1.2 million barrels a day, the largest ever weekly release. The reserve was only half full before the conflict began.

Pakistan has allowed Iran to park military aircraft on its airfields, potentially shielding them from American air strikes, despite its role as a mediator. The Institute for the Study of War has confirmed that Russia is supplying drone parts to Iran so it can repair its drone facilities and build more drones. Georgia is becoming Iran’s sanctions evasion hub, with the pro-Russian Dream Party government in Tbilisi helping the Iranians. Trump’s son, Eric Trump, has announced the official rendering of Trump Tower Tbilisi, highlighting property development deals in an authoritarian country loyal to Russia.

The former prime minister of Qatar noted that Iran will never give up its nuclear weapons, citing Ukraine as the reason. Ukraine is an example of a country that gave up its nuclear weapons for security guarantees from the United States, guarantees which proved worthless as Donald Trump does not honour past agreements. Iran views nuclear weapons as sovereign protection, observing that North Korea has not been threatened with regime change because it possesses them.

On a positive note, President Zelensky says some 20 countries are interested in drone deals with Ukraine. Palantir CEO Alex Karp travelled to Kyiv to meet with Zelensky to discuss a drone deal, seeking Ukraine’s drone technology and video for his AI models. Germany and Ukraine are to jointly produce long range drones in an expanded defence partnership.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius met with Ukraine’s Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov in Kyiv. Fedorov noted that Germany is now number one globally in security aid to Ukraine, providing one third of total support, from Patriot missiles to over one billion for Ukrainian drones. This aid is delivering results, including 90 percent drone interceptions and 5,000 mid strikes per month.

Every morning at 9:00 am across Ukraine, a minute of silence is observed for all those killed by Putin’s army. The whole country stands in silence for one minute in remembrance.