East Africa Trade Balance Tilts Toward Tanzania

(DAR ES SALAAM) – Tanzania is rapidly strengthening its position as a leading supplier within East Africa, a trend that is drawing attention across the region, including in South Sudan. In the first ten months of 2025, Tanzania exported goods worth 2.26 billion United States dollars to Uganda. This level exceeded Kenya’s exports to Uganda and surpassed the combined supply from all other East African countries.

Between January and October 2025, Uganda imported goods valued at 2.26 billion dollars from Tanzania, compared with 1.35 billion dollars from Kenya. Monthly import data from the Bank of Uganda shows that Tanzania outperformed Kenya in every month of the year. In October alone, Tanzania exported goods worth 313.25 million dollars to Uganda, more than double Kenya’s 135.28 million dollars, confirming Tanzania as Uganda’s main trading partner.

The scale of Tanzania’s lead becomes clearer when compared with other regional suppliers. In 2024, Uganda imported goods worth 1.87 billion dollars from Tanzania, while imports from Kenya stood at 882 million dollars. South Sudan supplied goods worth 37.57 million dollars, the Democratic Republic of Congo 29.67 million dollars, Rwanda 11.62 million dollars, and Burundi about 2 million dollars. Tanzania’s exports to Uganda were higher than the combined total from these neighbouring countries.

This dominance is a recent development. In 2020, Kenya and Tanzania were almost equal suppliers to Uganda, with imports of 808 million dollars from Kenya and 771.86 million dollars from Tanzania. By 2022, Tanzania’s exports had fallen sharply to 281 million dollars due to pandemic related disruptions and transport challenges, while Kenya exported 755.5 million dollars. Within two years, Tanzania recorded one of the strongest trade recoveries in the region, increasing its exports to Uganda by more than 1.6 billion dollars.

According to Professor Haruni Mapesa, Rector of the Mwalimu Nyerere Memorial Academy, Tanzania’s location and transport infrastructure are now shaping its industrial growth and trade direction. Access to the Indian Ocean, along with sustained investment in ports, railways, and major roads, has created conditions that attract manufacturers previously based in Asia and parts of Europe.

Professor Mapesa explained that deep sea ports, the standard gauge railway, the central corridor, and expanding road networks have positioned Tanzania as a practical production base. Manufacturers are increasingly setting up factories to serve East Africa, the Southern African Development Community, and wider African markets. Education is also playing a role by providing skilled labour to support industrial growth.

Energy investment has further supported this expansion. Gas powered electricity has improved supply stability, allowing factories to increase output at a time when construction and housing demand in Uganda is rising. This combination of reliable power and strong demand has reinforced Tanzania’s export performance.

The wider regional picture highlights the gap that has emerged. While South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, and Burundi together supplied less than 80 million dollars worth of goods to Uganda in 2024, Tanzania alone delivered nearly 1.9 billion dollars. This contrast underlines differences in infrastructure, production capacity, and market access across the region.

Professor Mapesa also pointed to Tanzania’s relatively stable agricultural output as a key factor supporting exports. Food and cash crop production has remained steady, with key commodities still available in sufficient volumes despite climate pressures affecting other countries. This stability strengthens Tanzania’s role as both a food supplier and an agro processing centre.

For South Sudan, these developments are relevant as the country seeks to expand trade and diversify its economy beyond oil. Improved transport links, reliable energy, skills development, and agricultural resilience are increasingly important in shaping regional trade flows. Tanzania’s experience offers insight into how sustained investment can shift a country’s position within East Africa’s business landscape.

Selected East Africa Exports to Uganda (2024)