(KYIV) – Ukrainian long range missile and drone strikes have hit Russia’s oil refining industry, leaving around 17 percent of its processing capacity damaged and fuelling shortages across the country. The attacks mark a significant escalation in Ukraine’s strategy to weaken the Kremlin’s ability to sustain its war effort.
Military analyst Philip Ingram, a former senior British intelligence officer, said the strikes demonstrate both Ukraine’s growing capability and Russia’s mounting vulnerabilities. He noted that the impact goes far beyond the battlefield, with visible effects on ordinary Russians now queuing for fuel. In several regions, motorists have reported waiting hours to fill their tanks, with a limit of just 10 litres permitted in some cases.
The Ukrainian made Flamingo missile has been central to this strategy. With a range of up to 3,000 kilometres and a payload exceeding one tonne, the system has enabled Kyiv to reach deep into Russian territory without seeking approval from Western allies for every strike. This independence is seen in Ukraine as a major step forward in its ability to shape the conflict.
| Key Data | Impact |
|---|---|
| Russia’s refining capacity damaged | 17% |
| Missile range | Up to 3,000 km |
| Payload | Approx. 1,150 kg |
| Fuel ration in some regions | 10 litres per vehicle |
Professor Vlad Milenko of Oxford University, himself Ukrainian, described the new missile capability as a breakthrough. He explained that Ukraine now has the ability to target not only oil refineries but also drone production sites and other strategic facilities inside Russia. “This changes the nature of the war. Moscow can no longer feel secure in its own territory,” he said.
The Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin faces rising discontent at home as the strikes bite into daily life. Fuel shortages are being reported not only in southern Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories but also as far east as Primorsky Krai, near Vladivostok. Analysts suggest that while Moscow has sought to downplay the disruption, the visible impact on civilians could become a political risk for Putin, who has long tried to shield the population from the costs of war.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has used the moment to renew calls for Western partners, particularly the United States, to strengthen support with air defence systems and fighter jets. He linked the urgency of these requests to recent Russian drone incursions into neighbouring Poland, underlining the threat not only to Ukraine but to NATO members.
During a recent visit to Kyiv, retired US General Keith Kellogg was praised by Zelensky in a tongue in cheek remark. The Ukrainian leader noted that Russian attacks seemed to pause whenever Kellogg was present, joking that he should stay in Ukraine indefinitely. Behind the humour, however, was a serious plea: the need for stronger protection against Russian aerial attacks.
In the United Kingdom, King Charles emphasised British solidarity during a state banquet for Donald Trump at Windsor Castle. He highlighted the historic partnership between Britain and America, recalling how both nations stood together against tyranny in two world wars. With another tyranny threatening Europe, he declared, London and Washington must stand firmly with Ukraine. Observers noted Trump appeared uncomfortable during parts of the speech, though the message was clear: Britain’s support for Ukraine is unwavering.
Elsewhere, former US envoy Kurt Volker emphasised that Russia lacks the military strength to expand the war beyond Ukraine. He argued that Moscow is attempting to bluff its way into deterring NATO support but has no real capability to wage a wider conflict. Volker also pointed to Ukraine’s determination to rebuild even while fighting continues, with new infrastructure, energy projects, and commercial developments already underway.
The strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure point to Ukraine’s strategy of hitting both military supply lines and the economic foundations of Moscow’s war machine. By targeting refineries and ports, Kyiv aims to reduce Russia’s export revenues and undermine domestic fuel supplies.
The pressure is already evident. Russia’s Zapad 25 military exercises, once vast demonstrations of strength, have been scaled back dramatically, involving just a fraction of the troops compared to previous years. Meanwhile, NATO conducted its own large-scale drills in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Germany and the United States, underscoring the alliance’s readiness.
Analysts believe Putin’s greatest fear remains unrest inside Russia. With fuel shortages, economic disruption, and the continued toll of casualties from the front, Ukraine’s strikes are bringing the war closer to the daily lives of Russian citizens. While the Kremlin still controls the political system, discontent is growing.
For Ukraine, the message is clear the war is not confined to its own territory. With new missile capabilities, Kyiv is determined to push the conflict into Russia’s heartland and expose the weakness of a regime that once claimed to be untouchable.