IMF Data Casts Doubt on South Sudan Fastest Growth Forecast

(JUBA) – South Sudan has been widely cited as the world’s fastest growing economy in 2025, with projections suggesting growth of 24.3 percent. However, closer examination of the data shows that these claims require caution, particularly for investors and policymakers tracking the country’s real economic outlook.

The forecast was published by data storytelling platform Voronoi, which listed war affected South Sudan at the top of global growth charts for 2025. The projection quickly gained traction online and has appeared prominently in global search results, raising interest in South Sudan’s economic prospects despite ongoing conflict and structural weaknesses.

An examination of the source material shows that Voronoi based its claim on data from the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook. The platform extrapolated figures to conclude that South Sudan’s economy would expand by 24.3 percent in 2025. However, the IMF report itself does not clearly separate economic data for Sudan and South Sudan in some historical comparisons, which appears to have led to a major misreading of the figures.

A closer review of the IMF data shows that Sudan recorded a negative growth rate of 24.3 percent in 2024. This figure matches the percentage cited by Voronoi but in reverse. As a result, analysts say the projection that South Sudan will grow by the same figure in 2025 lacks a clear basis in the IMF’s published outlook.

According to the IMF, Sudan’s gross domestic product is projected to grow by 9.5 percent in 2025. While this signals a rebound, it is significantly lower than the growth rate attributed to South Sudan in the Voronoi analysis. The IMF does not explicitly list South Sudan as having the fastest growing economy globally in its latest report.

Other economic forecasters present a more moderate picture. FocusEconomics.com projects South Sudan’s economy to grow by 17.8 percent next year. It notes that while this figure appears strong, it is largely driven by a low base effect. The economy contracted by an estimated 26 percent in 2024, mainly due to spillover effects from the ongoing war in neighbouring Sudan, disruptions to trade, and reduced oil activity.

For comparison, the IMF projects global economic growth at about 3.2 percent, highlighting how exceptional any sharp rebound in South Sudan would be. The Fund also stresses that its forecasts are based on assumptions that the conflict in Sudan will end by the close of 2025 and that reconstruction efforts will begin soon after. Any delay or escalation in fighting would significantly alter these projections.

The IMF further clarifies that its historical data has limitations. It states that figures for 2011 exclude South Sudan after July 9, while data from 2012 onward relates to Sudan in its current borders. This distinction is important for investors analysing long term trends in both economies.

South Sudan, which gained independence from Sudan in 2011, remains the youngest nation in East Africa. Despite its natural resources, including oil and agriculture, years of conflict, political instability, and weak infrastructure have left the economy fragile. Juba, the capital, remains the centre of government and commercial activity, but private sector growth is constrained by insecurity, inflation, and limited access to finance.

The World Bank has previously reported that South Sudan’s secession caused major economic shocks for both countries. Sudan lost oil revenues that had accounted for about half of government income and 95 percent of exports, contributing to economic slowdown, rising fuel prices, and protests in 2013. South Sudan, meanwhile, became heavily dependent on oil, exposing it to price swings and production disruptions.

Both countries continue to suffer from the effects of conflict. International human rights groups report that fighting in Sudan has caused widespread civilian harm, displacement, and destruction of economic assets. In South Sudan, internal conflicts have also disrupted production, displaced communities, and limited investment, particularly outside major towns.

Against this backdrop, analysts say claims of record breaking growth for South Sudan should be treated carefully. While a rebound from a deep contraction is possible, especially if regional stability improves, growth figures alone do not reflect the underlying health of the economy or the challenges facing businesses on the ground.

By contrast, South Africa’s economy is expected to grow by less than 1.5 percent this year, based on estimates from economists, the IMF, and government officials. While this comparison has been used to highlight South Sudan’s projected performance, experts caution that vastly different economic structures and starting points make such comparisons misleading.

Selected Growth Estimates for 2025