(MOSCOW) –
Russia is facing one of the most difficult periods in its modern history as the prolonged war against Ukraine places growing strain on its military, economy and population. While the Kremlin continues to present recruitment figures as evidence of resilience, a closer examination of available data and independent analysis suggests a system under severe pressure.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and a close ally of the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, announced that military recruitment targets for 2025 had been met. According to his statement, 422,704 people signed military contracts during the year, with a further 32,000 joining volunteer units. On the surface, these figures imply that Russia has been able to replenish its forces despite sustained losses on the battlefield.
However, the number represents a decline compared with 2024, when around 450,000 contract soldiers were reportedly recruited. Analysts note that the fall reflects growing fatigue within Russian society as the war drags on, replacing earlier mobilisation enthusiasm with caution and fear. The recruitment figures increasingly resemble a replacement mechanism rather than an expansion of forces.
Independent calculations published by Yuri Podolyaka, a prominent pro Kremlin military blogger with a large domestic following, offer insight into the scale of Russia’s manpower challenge. He estimates that roughly two million people have passed through the Russian armed forces since the start of the full scale invasion, including initial forces, the 2022 mobilisation and subsequent annual contract recruitment. Yet the number of troops currently deployed is estimated at about 900,000, raising questions about the whereabouts of more than one million personnel.
According to Podolyaka’s assessment, total losses exceed 820,000, with approximately 400,000 fatalities. Military analysts describe this level of attrition as unsustainable, arguing that the Russian army is consuming manpower at a pace that society and the economy cannot support indefinitely.
Evidence of declining morale has also emerged. Videos circulating on social media appear to show harsh disciplinary practices within Russian units, including soldiers being restrained outdoors in freezing conditions. While such footage is difficult to verify independently, it has reinforced perceptions of deteriorating discipline and rising desperation within parts of the army.
These conditions have coincided with a rise in desertions. Officially recorded cases in 2025 exceeded 10,000, while estimates since the start of the war approach 100,000. Leaked documents from individual formations reportedly indicate thousands of desertions within a single army unit. In response, the Kremlin has increased penalties for desertion to prison terms of up to ten years and expanded the role of military police.
Recruitment has also been supported by pressure on those reluctant to serve. Testimonies attributed to soldiers suggest that refusal to sign contracts can lead to threats of imprisonment or forced deployment. In some units, reports of collective protests and insubordination point to deepening discontent.
As domestic manpower becomes harder to secure, Russia has increasingly relied on foreign fighters, including personnel from North Korea, African mercenary groups and volunteers from South Asia. Analysts view this as an attempt to reduce domestic political fallout from casualties among Russian citizens.
The military draw on manpower is contributing to a wider economic strain. Russia is currently experiencing an estimated labour shortage of 4.8 million workers. An unemployment rate of 2.6 per cent, while historically low, is seen as evidence of an exhausted labour market rather than economic strength. Construction projects have slowed, logistics networks are under pressure and the technology sector continues to lose skilled workers through emigration.
Public finances are also under stress. Official data from the Russian Ministry of Finance indicate a budget deficit of about 4.7 trillion roubles, roughly 52 billion US dollars, in the first ten months of 2025. Independent economists forecast that the deficit could exceed 6.3 trillion roubles, around 70 billion US dollars, by the end of 2026. Oil and gas revenues have fallen by about 34 per cent due to sanctions and weaker global prices, forcing the Kremlin to draw heavily on the National Welfare Fund. Around 60 per cent of its liquid assets have already been depleted, leaving reserves largely in gold and Chinese yuan.
The focus on military production is increasingly crowding out civilian sectors. Some non defence companies have shifted to shorter working weeks to survive, while delayed wage payments and layoffs are becoming more common. Economists warn that allocating an estimated 7 to 8 per cent of gross domestic product to the war effort risks long term structural damage.
In poorer regions, recruitment incentives have created what analysts describe as a death economy. Large signing bonuses and compensation payments can exceed many years of civilian earnings. In some regions, up to 10 per cent of local budgets are reportedly devoted to recruitment. However, families of soldiers listed as missing in action often receive no compensation, a practice critics say reduces fiscal pressure while keeping official casualty figures lower.
Demographic trends present an even longer term challenge. Russia’s birth rate is projected to fall to around 1.24 children per woman in 2025, far below the replacement level of 2.1. Surveys indicate that about 60 per cent of women have postponed or abandoned plans to have children because of economic uncertainty and the war. Combined with battlefield losses, long term injuries and the emigration of more than one million mostly young and educated citizens, analysts warn of lasting damage to the country’s demographic structure. Population projections suggest annual declines of more than 600,000 people in the coming years.
Living standards are also under pressure. Independent estimates put real inflation above 20 per cent, with sharp rises in food prices. In some regions, households have faced disruptions to electricity, water and heating amid cross border strikes linked to the war. Public frustration has grown as reports highlight daily military spending estimated at about 72 billion roubles, roughly 800 million US dollars, while many citizens struggle with basic costs.
Internationally, Russia remains increasingly isolated. Sanctions by the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States are becoming more targeted, focusing on energy exports, shipping and finance. At the same time, Russia’s economic relationship with China has become more asymmetrical. Beijing purchases Russian oil and gas at discounted prices while expanding its exports of manufactured goods to the Russian market. Major projects, including the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, remain uncertain as China weighs the risk of secondary sanctions.
Analysts describe this relationship as one of dependency rather than partnership, limiting Moscow’s strategic autonomy.
