(MOSCOW) – The Russian dictatorship has moved to tighten control over its security forces amid growing signs of internal rivalry, elite infighting and declining trust within the state apparatus.
The Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin, has signed a decree expanding the powers of the National Guard and placing it more directly under military command. Analysts say the move reflects deepening fears within the Kremlin following recent unrest and the continued erosion of loyalty among security agencies.
The National Guard, commonly known as Rosgvardia, will now be granted wider authority to conduct intelligence work, assess threats and plan military operations. The force is commanded by Viktor Zolotov, a long time associate and former personal bodyguard of Putin.
Under the new arrangement, Rosgvardia will operate more closely with the armed forces under the supervision of Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who is regarded as loyal to the Kremlin leadership.
Security analysts note that the restructuring follows the failure of Rosgvardia and other agencies to resist the Wagner mutiny in June 2023, when fighters from the Wagner Group advanced towards Moscow with little resistance.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the changes are intended to protect the regime from future military uprisings and to prevent rival factions from acting independently.
Officials and commentators close to the security services say Putin no longer fully trusts the army, the Federal Security Service (FSB) or military intelligence. As a result, he is strengthening a parallel structure designed primarily for regime protection rather than external defence.
Concerns over loyalty have been reinforced by reports of violent rivalries among senior officials. Russian and Ukrainian sources have pointed to an alleged assassination attempt on a senior military intelligence officer in Moscow, which they say reflects intensifying competition between agencies.
Russian state media blamed Ukraine for the incident. However, Ukrainian and Western intelligence sources rejected the claim, suggesting it was more likely linked to internal disputes.
A former senior Ukrainian security official was quoted as saying that Ukraine had no strategic interest in targeting such figures and that Russian factions were capable of eliminating rivals without external involvement.
Reports indicate that tensions between military intelligence and the FSB date back years, particularly over influence and financial control in occupied parts of eastern Ukraine. These rivalries have reportedly intensified since Russia’s full scale invasion in 2022.
The atmosphere of suspicion has been reinforced by memories of the Wagner advance, when columns moved from Rostov on Don towards Moscow and security forces failed to intervene decisively. Many officials reportedly viewed the episode as proof that the regime could face serious internal threats.
At the same time, international pressure on Russia is growing. NATO countries have stepped up military preparedness, warning that Moscow could pose a direct threat to Europe in the coming years. Senior officials within North Atlantic Treaty Organization have said member states must shift to a wartime mindset.
Denmark’s intelligence service has warned that Russia could be capable of launching a limited regional conflict within months of any pause in fighting in Ukraine and a broader confrontation within five years.
The British Army has expanded urban warfare training at facilities designed to replicate conditions in Ukrainian towns. Norway has also increased readiness near areas close to Russian nuclear infrastructure.
Economic pressures are further undermining stability. According to Reuters, Russia’s oil and gas revenues in January fell by nearly half compared with a year earlier, reaching their lowest level since mid 2020.
Energy income remains a key source of state funding, accounting for nearly a quarter of federal revenues. Falling exports, sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries have reduced earnings and strained the budget.
The budget deficit in 2025 reached about 5.6 trillion roubles, equivalent to approximately 58 billion US dollars at current exchange rates and around 2.6 percent of gross domestic product.
The National Wealth Fund, once a major financial reserve, has reportedly fallen below 30 billion US dollars, limiting the government’s ability to support struggling companies and banks.
Economic analysts predict slower growth and a possible contraction of up to six percent this year. Several enterprises have sought emergency assistance, while small businesses have reported widespread closures.
The government is considering new tax measures, including a proposed 22 percent value added tax on imported goods from 2027. This would significantly raise prices for foreign products, including low cost imports from China.
A product priced at 1,800 roubles, equivalent to about 19 US dollars, could rise by nearly a quarter under the new system, further reducing consumer purchasing power.
Ordinary Russians have complained about rising food and transport costs. In interviews posted on social media, retail workers and small traders said they had been forced to abandon private businesses and take lower paid jobs.
Meanwhile, military spending continues to dominate public finances. In 2025, more than ten percent of Russia’s GDP was directed towards the war against Ukraine.
On 3 February, Russian forces launched a large scale air attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure using 562 missiles and drones. Ukrainian officials estimated the cost at 324.8 million US dollars, equivalent to about 30 billion roubles.
Economists noted that the sum could have funded public services for an entire year in regions such as the Jewish Autonomous Oblast or the city of Kaluga.
Despite official denials from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that Russia intends to attack Europe, Western governments remain sceptical, citing repeated contradictions between Moscow’s statements and actions.
As elite rivalries deepen, financial resources decline and international isolation continues, analysts say the Kremlin is increasingly reliant on repression and personal loyalty rather than institutional stability.
The expansion of Rosgvardia’s powers reflects a leadership more focused on self preservation than governance, raising questions about the long term resilience of the Russian state.
