(KYIV) — Ukraine marks four years since the commencement of the full-scale Russian invasion and twelve years of continuous aggression with a significantly strengthened military posture, while the Russian Federation faces an accelerating domestic and economic collapse. The conflict, which began with the Russian dictator’s attempt to destroy Ukrainian sovereignty on 24 February 2022, has instead resulted in a severely degraded Russian economy, the destruction of its primary energy industries, and the transformation of previously secure Russian border regions into active combat zones.
The initial disbelief regarding a large-scale European war in the 21st century was shattered by early morning explosions across Ukrainian regional centres and the advance of Russian armoured columns toward the capital. However, subsequent developments have defied early negative forecasts. Ukraine has systematically dismantled the Russian Black Sea Fleet, culminating in the sinking of the flagship Moskva and the forced relocation of remaining naval assets from occupied Crimea to Novorossiysk. Ukrainian maritime drones continue to strike these retreated assets, effectively ending Russian naval dominance.
The Russian federal budget currently faces a deficit of trillions of roubles as Ukrainian strategic strikes have crippled the Russian oil and gas refining sectors. Consequently, the Kremlin reportedly lacks the liquidity to maintain payments to its military personnel, with soldier stipends allegedly reduced by half. The Russian dictator remains hesitant to announce a general conscription due to the political volatility observed during the 2022 partial mobilisation, which saw over one million citizens flee the country. Current attrition rates suggest Ukrainian forces are neutralising more Russian personnel monthly than the Kremlin can successfully conscript.
Domestic instability within the Russian Federation reached a peak in 2025, with protests recorded in all 83 federal subjects. These demonstrations are driven by surging inflation, tax increases, and the failure of regional governments to fund essential services such as schools and hospitals. In response to growing dissent, the Kremlin has implemented widespread internet outages and restricted platforms like Telegram. Furthermore, Russian civil aviation has largely ceased to function effectively due to international sanctions and lack of maintenance.
Ukraine has meanwhile emerged as a leading military power in Europe, boasting advanced domestic drone production. Long-range Ukrainian UAVs now reach targets 2,000 kilometres inside Russian territory, exploiting the strategic vulnerability of Russia’s vast landmass. These operations, including the coordinated “Spiderweb” strikes, have successfully neutralised high-value assets and senior military leadership.
Geopolitically, the Russian dictator’s actions have led to a doubled land border with NATO following the accession of Finland and Sweden. Russia’s influence in former satellite states and international partners, including Armenia and Syria, continues to wane. Analysts suggest that the combination of economic ruin and military failure has created the conditions for a potential political or military coup within the Kremlin, as even oligarchs and state propagandists begin to distance themselves from the regime.
