(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Ukrainian forces are increasingly exposing serious weaknesses within Russian military units as the war continues, according to defence analyst Robert Fox.
Speaking on the Front Line programme on Times Radio, Fox said Ukrainian operations on the battlefield have revealed significant structural and morale problems inside Russian formations.
“The weaknesses they have shown are very serious indeed,” Fox said. “The quality of troops and fighting spirit on the Ukrainian side, despite all their privations, is beginning to expose what a dreadful mess many Russian units are in.”
Fox, defence editor of the Evening Standard and a senior associate fellow at the Centre for Defence Studies at King’s College London, said Ukrainian forces have achieved qualitative gains in recent operations even when territorial advances appear limited.
“The Ukrainian forces were making gains,” he said. “They were not always large gains on the map but they were qualitative gains in exposing Russia’s weaknesses.”
The discussion took place as conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East continue to reshape the global security environment.
Host Philip Ingram opened the programme by noting that the geopolitical landscape has become more volatile than at any time in recent decades.
“With conflicts raging in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and political shifts in Washington, the geopolitical map looks more unstable than it has for decades,” he said.
Fox said the international environment is now defined by overlapping crises, including tensions linked to Iran’s nuclear ambitions and wider regional instability.
He noted that questions remain about the strategic logic behind recent United States actions in the region, including strikes connected to concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme.
According to Fox, Iranian officials have previously claimed they possessed 460 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent. Such material is far beyond civilian requirements and could potentially be used to produce nuclear weapons or contribute to radiological devices.
Even if it does not immediately produce nuclear weapons, Fox said highly enriched uranium could contribute to a so called dirty bomb capable of spreading radioactive contamination.
“This is the kind of weapon that does not require sophisticated delivery systems,” he said. “It can cause widespread contamination and is difficult to detect.”
Fox warned that future conflicts may increasingly include chemical, biological or radiological threats as part of asymmetric warfare.
“These are pollution weapons,” he said. “They can be messy, difficult to detect and they do not necessarily require conventional military delivery systems.”
He also highlighted the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than one fifth of global hydrocarbon exports pass.
Closing the narrow waterway could trigger major disruption in global energy markets, he said.
“If the Strait of Hormuz is shut, the hydrocarbon market could be thrown into turmoil,” Fox said.
Turning to Russia’s war against Ukraine, Fox said Moscow has temporarily benefited from rising oil prices and from softer enforcement of sanctions in some areas.
However he stressed that Russia remains heavily dependent on external partners.
“Russia cannot continue this war without China,” he said, noting that Chinese components are widely used in drone technology across many military programmes worldwide.
He added that China has taken a cautious approach to the current geopolitical tensions.
According to Fox, Beijing appears to be pursuing a strategic approach that avoids major confrontation while protecting economic interests, particularly in Europe and global trade routes.
“China does not want to see total collapse or instability,” he said. “It is playing a long game.”
Fox also pointed to the growing role of Ukraine’s military innovation, particularly in drone warfare.
Ukrainian units have developed highly adaptable drone capabilities, often modifying equipment rapidly using small scale manufacturing methods.
He described the system as a modern “cottage industry” in which military units operate their own technical workshops.
“Some units have their own 3D printers,” he said. “They can modify drone components and adapt quickly when electronic warfare disrupts their systems.”
Fox said this innovation has allowed Ukrainian forces to gain an advantage in tactical drone operations.
“They seem to be ahead in the tactical drone game,” he said.
He also pointed to reports of severe discipline and morale problems inside some Russian units, including cases of mutiny, soldiers killing one another and extremely poor living conditions.
“These units are living in dreadful conditions,” Fox said. “That situation is likely to continue.”
Despite heavy attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure during winter, Fox said Ukrainian morale has remained resilient.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he said, faces an exhausted population but one that remains determined to resist Russian aggression.
“A very weary and physically tired Zelenskyy knows that his people are in no mood for surrender,” Fox said.
Ukraine’s growing expertise in drone warfare has also drawn international attention. Some countries in the Middle East have reportedly sought Ukrainian assistance in dealing with drone threats similar to those used by Russia.
Fox said Ukraine’s experience could increasingly influence global military thinking.
“The innovative capacity of the Ukrainian military is showing the world new ways of fighting,” he said.
