(KYIV) – As the conflict in Eastern Europe reaches Day 1,422, the geopolitical landscape remains fractured while the situation on the frontline settles into a grinding war of attrition. On Friday the 16th of January, UK Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy arrived in Kyiv to commemorate the first anniversary of the signing of the 100 year UK Ukraine strategic partnership. While diplomats gather, reports from the ground highlight the stagnation of Russian military efforts, even as the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin attempts to project an image of inevitable victory to international observers.
There has been virtually no movement on the ground in recent days as Russian forces continue to prioritise the Zaporizhzhia Oblast area. While Moscow’s troops are achieving limited success in that sector, the only tangible movement recorded is in the vicinity of Huliaipole. This lack of significant progress has not prevented the Kremlin from pushing a narrative of sweeping gains, an effort seemingly designed to convince Donald Trump that Ukrainian defensive lines are collapsing. Supporting this narrative, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed yesterday that the corridor for decision making in Ukraine is narrowing.
However, analysis by the US based think tank the Institute for the Study of War suggests a different reality. The ISW states that Ukrainian defences are not on the verge of collapse and that Kyiv’s forces have successfully prevented the Russian dictator from achieving his goal of subjugating the entire country. The think tank notes that the Russian narrative no longer focuses heavily on “Nazis” and drug dealers, but rather on territorial control. According to the ISW, at the height of Russian gains in March 2022, Moscow had seized 26.16 per cent of Ukraine. Subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensives in the north and around Kyiv reduced this figure to just over 20.2 per cent by the end of April 2022.
Russian territorial control continued to decrease to 17.84 per cent by the end of 2022 following counteroffensives in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. The front lines then became static, with control remaining relatively constant throughout 2023, 2024, and 2025. Russian forces controlled between 17.9 per cent and 18.5 per cent of Ukraine during 2023 and 2024. That figure rose to 19.32 per cent by the end of 2025. The analysis concludes that in the last 3 years, Russian forces have occupied only an additional 1.5 per cent of Ukraine’s territory, dispelling the myth of narrowing corridors for decision making.
Despite the static nature of the conflict, the human cost remains high with a spike in casualties reported yesterday. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that 1,370 Russian casualties, including those killed, wounded, missing, and taken prisoner, were added to the toll yesterday. The head of Russia’s military, General Valery Gerasimov, attempted to reinforce the narrative of inexorable Russian movement by claiming yesterday that his forces are advancing in virtually all directions.
Contrary to Gerasimov’s claims, geolocated footage published yesterday showed that Ukrainian forces had actually advanced further to the north of Kupiansk in the northeast of the country. Speaking of Kupiansk, Gerasimov also tried to maintain the line that Russian forces still hold the city, despite ample visual evidence and reporting from both sides to the contrary. Gerasimov dismissed the Ukrainian presence as merely an attempt to demonstrate their presence through flag raisings. He neglected to mention that the Ukrainian president had also visited the town, effectively disproving the Russian claims.
In response to the ongoing energy crisis caused by Russian attacks, Ukraine is set to loosen curfew restrictions to allow the public to reach humanitarian aid shelters, known as invincibility points, even during the night. The new Energy Minister, Denys Shmyhal, stated this morning that the measure is necessary so that everyone currently without electricity, water, or heat receives necessary assistance. Curfew times generally run from midnight to 5 am, though they vary slightly across the country, particularly in the southwest. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported that since October last year, Russian forces have targeted 11 hydroelectric power plants, 45 major combined heat and power plants, 49 thermal power plants, and 151 electrical substations.
To support the battered energy sector, the UK Foreign Office announced today a further £20 million ($25 million) of energy infrastructure support. The Foreign Office described the Russian attacks on the sector as callous and intensifying. This funding is intended to provide vital emergency support to repair, restore, protect, and generate energy supply nationwide. The £20 million ($25 million) will be delivered as a cash gift to the Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Support Fund, which is considered the most efficient method for deployment.
As part of the 100 year partnership anniversary, the UK government also announced a boost to the next generation involving 300 schools across both countries participating in a schools twinning programme over the next 3 years. The Foreign Office claims that 54,000 British and Ukrainian pupils are set to benefit, fostering long term security and growth. Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that the partnership stands for everything the Russian dictator is trying to destroy, bringing hope and opportunity. He added that the UK stands in awe of the courage and resilience demonstrated by Ukrainians every day.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper added that they are cementing a future facing partnership, noting that bilateral ties extend far beyond the conflict to include trade, defence cooperation, and science. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson remarked that a love of reading can change a child’s life, building empathy and widening horizons for children in Ukraine facing unimaginable challenges. While the government press releases were heavy on rhetoric, the practical details reveal that British and Ukrainian teachers are meeting face to face in Poland and via video calls to exchange best practice on literacy and trauma induced teaching.
Mrs Dunn, head teacher at All Saints Catholic Primary School in Anfield, Liverpool, explained the reality of the programme after Prime Minister Starmer joined a video call from her school. She described her school as just one of the 300 involved, where every 2 weeks her pupils meet online with fellow pupils in Kyiv. The children, aged between 9 and 11, read together and chat in English and Ukrainian. Mrs Dunn noted that it gives the children in Kyiv a sense of hope and helps British children realise how lucky they are to have a safe home and bed.
In maritime developments, Germany has denied the Cameroonian flagged tanker Tavian entry into its territorial waters. This is the first known instance of a vessel linked to Russia’s shadow fleet being barred from the area. The tanker was refused entry to the Baltic Sea while in Danish waters and subsequently changed course. The vessel is a 27 year old ship described by German media as a zombie tanker, meaning it has repeatedly changed its name and identification details. German border guards suspected it was sailing under a false flag with a forged registration number.
Experts believe the Tavian is actually the previously registered tanker Tier, which is on the US sanctions list. The German Maritime Security Service confirmed this is the first recorded case of a zombie tanker appearing off the coast. After checking documents, German federal police denied the vessel entry on its approach to the Baltic Sea. The ship was last seen turning north towards the Norwegian Sea, likely en route to Murmansk.
On the intelligence front, French President Emmanuel Macron claimed yesterday that France is now providing two thirds of the intelligence supplied to Ukraine by its partners. Macron stated that while Ukraine used to be extremely dependent on American intelligence capacity, that dynamic has shifted over the last year. He provided no further details, and the claim remains difficult to verify. The UK Foreign Office declined to comment on the matter.
A significant split in diplomatic opinion has emerged among Western European allies regarding potential peace talks. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper stated she would not be open to dialogue with the Russian dictator, citing a lack of evidence that he actually wants peace. Conversely, President Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have suggested the time is right to begin talks with Moscow. Leaders in Europe are reportedly worried about being sidelined as the US takes a dominant role in discussions.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on Wednesday that Russia is open to peace talks, a sentiment welcomed by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as significant progress. Furthermore, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently called Russia a European country, expressing hope that ties between the EU and Moscow could be rebalanced. While Merz may be attempting to distinguish the Russian people from their leadership, Peskov interpreted the comments as a sign of openness to discussion. Peskov also condemned the UK’s stance, declaring that Russia has made Britain its enemy number one.
In the United States, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has gifted Donald Trump a Nobel Peace Prize, though it is not an official award. Machado, visiting the White House, presented the framed gift to Trump, who has often portrayed himself as a peacemaker. This move appears to be a bargaining chip for Machado, who seeks to be recognised as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. The Nobel Institute has clarified that its prizes cannot be shared or transferred, rendering the gesture purely symbolic. Trump has previously praised interim Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodriguez, casting doubt on whether Machado’s flattery will yield political results.
Finally, a new in depth report by Dr Jade McGlin for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies sheds light on the situation in the occupied territories. The report reveals that on the left bank of the Dnipro, residents are receiving as little as 26 minutes of electricity per day, insufficient even to charge power banks. The occupation regime is described not as chaotic, but as a bureaucratised and securitised parallel state designed to permanently absorb the territory through passport coercion and forced rubleisation.
The report highlights that surveillance has become a decisive weapon, with internet traffic routed through FSB monitored systems and mandatory biometric registration required for SIM cards. A new “super app” known as Max is being used as a primary surveillance tool. Dr McGlin notes that the distinction between violent and non violent resistance has collapsed, as non violent acts are no longer safe. The most strategically important resistance is now private and violent, specifically intelligence collection that enables Ukrainian strikes. While only 20 per cent of resistance acts become public, the underground movement continues to fight a battle of logistics and morale.
