(Juba) – Africa’s refined cotton seed oil market is expected to grow slowly but steadily over the next decade, offering new opportunities for importers, producers, and policy makers across the continent, including in countries like South Sudan, where vegetable oil imports form an essential part of household consumption and food security.
According to a new report published by IndexBox, the market volume for refined cotton-seed oil in Africa is forecast to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +1.2% from 2024 to 2035. The total volume is projected to reach 838,000 metric tonnes by the end of 2035. In terms of value, the market is expected to grow at a slightly higher rate of +1.6% annually, reaching an estimated USD 929 million (SSP 1.54 trillion at the June 2025 exchange rate of USD 1 = SSP 1,660).
In 2024 alone, Africa’s consumption of refined cotton-seed oil rose by 5.5% to 738,000 tonnes, continuing a three-year growth trend after a previous decline. Over the past decade, average annual growth in consumption stood at +1.9%, showing the resilience of demand for the product despite fluctuations in production and trade.
In value terms, the market declined slightly in 2024 to USD 783 million (SSP 1.3 trillion), following a peak of USD 816 million in 2022. This minor drop reflects shifts in wholesale prices and import costs. Nonetheless, the overall trend since 2013 remains positive, with an average annual increase of +1.3%.
Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia accounted for the highest volumes of cotton-seed oil consumption in 2024, jointly making up 28% of the continent’s total. Other significant consumers included Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Sudan, and Algeria, who together represented an additional 31%.
Uganda, a major trading partner of South Sudan, has recorded the fastest growth in both total and per capita consumption, with a CAGR of +3.2% in volume and +4.9% in market size. In per capita terms, Uganda led with 607 kg per 1,000 persons, followed closely by Kenya and Tanzania. This trend has implications for neighbouring markets such as South Sudan, where much of the vegetable oil on store shelves is sourced from Uganda.
Production across Africa reached 733,000 tonnes in 2024, up 4.9% from the previous year. This marks the highest level recorded since 2013, when production began its current upward trend, growing at an annual average of +2.0%. In terms of value, output was estimated at USD 767 million (SSP 1.27 trillion), a slight decline from the 2022 peak of USD 837 million.
Nigeria, the DRC, and Ethiopia were also the top producers, with countries such as Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, Sudan, and Algeria contributing significantly to the continent’s total production.
Import trends show a complex picture. While overall imports stood at a relatively low 12,000 tonnes in 2024, this was a 75% increase compared to the previous year, indicating renewed demand in certain markets. Nigeria accounted for the largest share, importing 4,100 tonnes, or 35% of the total. Ethiopia, Mali, South Africa, Lesotho, and Botswana were other key importers.
The total value of Africa’s cotton-seed oil imports rose to USD 16 million (SSP 26.6 billion) in 2024. Nigeria again led the list with USD 5.3 million worth of imports, followed by Ethiopia and Botswana. Interestingly, while overall imports have been declining since 2017, countries like Mauritius and Ethiopia showed positive growth, suggesting emerging demand in select markets.
Import prices in 2024 averaged USD 1,386 per tonne, up 11% from 2023. Botswana had the highest import prices at USD 3,045 per tonne, while South Africa recorded one of the lowest at just USD 480 per tonne. Price variations are driven by factors such as freight costs, processing quality, and national tariffs.
Exports from Africa grew 13% in volume in 2024 to reach 7,100 tonnes. However, export revenues dropped to USD 7.3 million (SSP 12.1 billion), indicating weaker global pricing. South Africa led with 3,200 tonnes exported, accounting for 45% of total shipments, followed by Burkina Faso and Benin. In terms of value, South Africa remained dominant with USD 4.4 million in exports.
Export prices dropped by 20% in 2024 to USD 1,027 per tonne, with Zimbabwe recording the lowest prices and South Africa the highest. Analysts suggest that market volatility and price competition from other vegetable oils like palm and sunflower oil could influence future export margins.
For South Sudan, where domestic edible oil production is limited and dependency on imports remains high, developments in the regional cotton-seed oil market offer both opportunities and risks. Price shifts in neighbouring Uganda and Kenya, along with trade routes via Nimule and Elegu, could impact the retail prices paid by consumers in Juba, Wau, and other urban areas.
There is also potential for investment in local oil refining and processing as regional consumption grows, which could reduce costs and create jobs. With a steadily expanding market and rising demand for refined oil products, South Sudanese traders and policymakers may find value in keeping a close eye on these evolving trends.
