(JUBA) – Five years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, many African countries have started to recover. Trade is picking up, tourists are returning and digital payments are growing. However, over 400 million people living in fragile and conflict affected states, including South Sudan, are still far from recovery.
According to new data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), more than half the population of sub Saharan Africa now lives in countries facing serious instability, violence or weak institutions. These conditions have worsened since the pandemic, widening the economic gap between fragile and more stable states.
Before COVID-19, fragile countries like South Sudan were already lagging behind their more stable neighbours. But the pandemic, ongoing conflict, weak governance and the falling value of local currencies have made things worse. Today, real income per person in these countries is still lower than it was in 2019, even after adjusting for inflation. In some countries, it has fallen further.
The IMF reports that in stable sub Saharan African countries, people’s incomes have returned to pre-pandemic levels or even increased. In contrast, people in fragile countries are earning less. According to a June 2025 report by the World Bank, fragile countries have seen their per capita income drop by 1.8% each year since 2020. Meanwhile, other low-income African countries have grown by 2.9% annually.
The reasons behind this slow recovery are clear. Many fragile states are still dealing with active conflict or are in post-conflict situations. The World Bank lists 21 out of 39 low-income countries in Africa as facing serious violence, which continues to affect their economies and discourage investment.
In South Sudan, ten years of civil unrest have destroyed key infrastructure. In other places like Burkina Faso and Mali, violence has pushed farmers off their land, reducing food production and raising prices, contributing to political instability and even military coups.
The impact of violence and weak systems has created what some experts call an “economic tax.” It discourages businesses, delays services, and keeps both private and public sector recovery slow. Additionally, fragile states often have poor tax systems, limited budgets, and weak delivery of services, which means aid and government support do not always reach those in need.
M. Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist at the World Bank, said that it is possible to restart growth in fragile states—but it takes serious political commitment and carefully planned international support.
The social costs of economic stagnation are severe. In fragile states, poverty rates are twice as high as in stable ones. Life expectancy is seven years shorter, and nearly four in every ten children do not attend school. In South Sudan, these trends are clearly visible.
A recent IMF blog by economist Wenjie Chen and others warned that without strong plans focused on governance, managing debt, and inclusive development, fragile states may never fully recover. In South Sudan and similar countries, insecurity reduces growth, and low growth increases public frustration, which can lead to further instability, a vicious cycle that is difficult to escape.
To change this, international organisations such as the IMF and World Bank are calling for a long term approach. Emergency aid is no longer enough. Instead, they recommend more support for public finance reform, improved governance and economic diversification. The World Bank’s latest plan for fragile states focuses on four main areas: preventing conflict, combining security with humanitarian and development work, better leadership and stronger regional cooperation.
Michele Fornino, an IMF specialist on Africa, said that only coordinated, long term support based on local leadership can truly help these countries recover. But time is limited. With rising debt, less donor interest and decreasing political will, the chance for action may not last much longer.
GDP Trends Comparison (2020–2025)
| Country Type | Average Annual GDP per Capita Change |
|---|---|
| Fragile States | -1.8% |
| Other Low-Income | +2.9% |
