(LVIV, UKRAINE) – In a detailed analysis of the evolving security landscape in Eastern Europe, former United States Army commander Ben Hodges has suggested that the primary objective behind recent Russian missile strikes is the intimidation of European political leaders rather than the achievement of military goals within Ukraine.
Speaking with Pyotr Kurzin, Hodges unpacked the motivations of the Russian dictator, who continues to advertise nuclear capable weaponry as a means of projecting a sense of volatility to the international community. The Russian dictator is increasingly targeting Europe with hostile rhetoric because the continent continues to frustrate his expansionist plans, creating a significant sense of irritation within the Kremlin.
As the conflict progresses, the United Kingdom and France have signalled a greater commitment to post war security, including the potential deployment of peacekeepers in the event of a ceasefire. This emerging European leadership in security matters comes at a time when US attention appears to be shifting elsewhere, with Donald Trump reportedly becoming more interested in the Western Hemisphere and internal regional issues. The Europeans are attempting to step up their involvement as the United States’ focus fluctuates, which has prompted the Russian dictator to increase psychological pressure on European capitals to deter deeper involvement in the defence of Ukraine.
A recent strike involving the Oreshnik missile near Lviv serves as a case study for this psychological campaign. The weapon struck a gas storage facility, a move that Hodges describes as an attempt to create headlines rather than a decisive military advantage. While the Oreshnik is advertised as a supersonic weapon capable of travelling ten times the speed of sound and carrying nuclear warheads, military experts and Ukrainian civilians remain more concerned about Kinzhal missiles. The Oreshnik was originally designed as an anti ship missile, and when it carries a conventional warhead, its impact is relatively limited compared to its fearsome reputation.
The Russian dictator relies on the branding of these weapons as nuclear capable to remind the West that Moscow possesses tools that cannot be easily stopped. By constantly highlighting the nuclear potential of these rockets, the Kremlin aims to scare European countries away from providing direct support to Ukraine or participating in future security guarantees.
Hodges noted that while the West often treats psychological operations as an add on to military strategy, for the Russian regime, it is an integral and central component of how they operate. He observed that Western observers often fall for these tactics, reacting with alarm to weapons that the United States and its allies also possess in far greater numbers.
This pattern of intimidation is not new, with the Kremlin now on its fourth or fifth round of threatened nuclear usage. The Russian dictator has established an annual theme of nuclear threats, similar to a regular holiday address, to keep the threat of escalation in the news cycle. Recent actions, such as the deployment of missile launchers to Belarus or launches from sites near Kazakhstan, are designed purely for symbolic impact. These operations are remarkably expensive; for example, a single Kinzhal missile is estimated to cost between 356,800,000 Russian Rubles ($4,500,000) and 793,000,000 Russian Rubles ($10,000,000) based on current 2026 valuations.
Hodges compared these current tactics to the April 2022 hypersonic strikes against Lviv, which occurred while Joe Biden was delivering a speech in Poland. Such strikes are used whenever the Russian dictator wishes to project power, despite the fact that they offer no real military advantage.
Using a high technology weapon to strike a gas storage facility is an inefficient use of resources that highlights the regime’s desperation to appear dangerous. Ultimately, Moscow’s threats are seen as a last resort after other ploys have failed. The Russian dictator cannot escalate to actual nuclear usage because such an action would be equivalent to signing a death warrant for his own regime.