(KYIV) –Ukraine’s drone and missile campaign has disabled more than 40 per cent of Russia’s oil refining capacity, according to former British diplomat Cormac Smith. The sustained strikes have forced Moscow to import petrol, an extraordinary reversal for a country once known as one of the world’s largest energy exporters.
Speaking on Front Line with journalist Philip Ingram, Smith said Ukraine’s strategy has effectively turned Russia’s vast geography against itself. The sheer size of the Russian Federation has made it impossible for the Kremlin to protect all critical infrastructure.
“Hardly a night goes by without another refinery being hit,” Smith said. “This is hurting Russia deeply. The country is now importing fuel, something almost unthinkable two years ago.”
According to data reviewed last week, Ukraine’s long-range attacks have left a large share of Russia’s energy output offline. The impact is significant because oil and gas remain the financial backbone of Moscow’s war effort.
| Key Indicator | Before Ukraine’s Strikes | Current Estimate (Nov 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Russian oil refining capacity | 100% | ~60% operational |
| Monthly oil export revenue | USD 20 billion | USD 12 billion (approx.) |
| Estimated loss in capacity | — | Over 40% |
| Russian petrol imports | None | Ongoing since Oct 2025 |
The campaign coincides with fierce fighting in Pokrovsk, a key industrial city in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The area has become the focal point of Russia’s ground offensive. Reports from Ukrainian sources suggest Russian forces have committed between 100,000 and 150,000 troops to the battle, suffering daily casualties estimated between 700 and 800 soldiers.
Smith said these battles are draining Russian manpower and finances. “Pokrovsk is bleeding Russia dry,” he noted. “It is buying Ukraine vital time to strengthen other fronts and degrade Russia’s war economy.”
He added that Ukrainian troops are continuing to receive supplies through remaining corridors, despite intense combat in parts of the city. “The fighting now resembles Mariupol — street by street, house by house,” Smith said, referencing the 2022 siege that became a symbol of Ukrainian resistance.
Military analysts suggest the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin views the capture of Pokrovsk as a symbolic prize to present to his population before the year ends. Yet, progress has been slow and costly. “In nearly four years of what Moscow still calls a ‘special military operation’, Russia has advanced barely ten miles in some areas,” Smith observed.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has adopted a dual-front strategy — defending key eastern territories while targeting Russia’s industrial and energy infrastructure far beyond the front lines. “Russia attacks civilians and power plants; Ukraine attacks oil and weapons production,” Smith said. “It’s a strategy designed to cut off the financial oxygen feeding the war machine.”
The International Monetary Fund projects Russia’s economy to grow by less than 1 per cent in 2026, compared with Moscow’s official forecast of over 3 per cent. Western economists believe the gap reflects the growing strain of war spending, sanctions, and the destruction of energy assets.
Smith warned that the Kremlin’s energy problems could escalate further if the strikes continue. “Russia has been called a gas station with nuclear weapons,” he said. “That gas station is now running out of gas.”
Despite these developments, Smith expressed concern that global media attention on Ukraine has diminished. “People are asking, ‘What’s happening in Ukraine?’ because it has disappeared from many news cycles,” he said. “This remains the most information driven conflict in modern history, and we must not let it fade from view.”
Ukraine’s leadership, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, has continued to call out Putin’s reliance on misinformation. Zelensky accused Moscow this week of “chasing false victories through hybrid warfare and propaganda.”