Ukraine has carried out a large drone and missile strike against multiple Russian military and energy facilities, significantly damaging an airfield, refineries, and support infrastructure along Russia’s Black Sea coastline. The operation, supported by domestically produced long range weapons, marks another phase in Ukraine’s developing capability to strike deep into Russian territory.
The attack targeted several high value sites, including air defence positions, port areas, and a major oil terminal. Video evidence circulating online suggests that Ukraine first disabled part of Russia’s local air defence network before sending successive waves of drones through the gap. The intensity of these assaults has now become a near nightly pattern.
Ukrainian officials say the country has spent two years building this long range capacity, which has now reached full operational use. Analysts in Kyiv argue that this growing pressure explains why the Russian leadership has urged former United States leader Donald Trump to push Ukraine towards concessions. Trump has recently retreated from demands that Kyiv surrender territory, although scepticism towards his stated aims remains strong in Ukraine.
Ukrainian security services, including the SBU’s Alpha special operations group, targeted several locations in Russia’s Krasnodar region. The sites included the port of Novorossiysk, the settlement of Tuapse, and the military airfield at Taganrog near Rostov on Don. Footage shows Russian air defence systems firing in multiple directions with little coordination, and in one incident a Russian surface to air missile reportedly landed on a residential building after failing to hit its target.
At the Taganrog airfield, videos and satellite images suggest that Ukraine destroyed a specialised A60 airborne laser laboratory aircraft and heavily damaged an A100 early warning aircraft, both of which are rare assets in Russia’s surveillance fleet. Russia has attempted to downplay the losses by claiming the aircraft were decommissioned, but analysts say Moscow lacks the industrial capacity to repair or replace them.
The strikes also hit the Tuapse oil refinery, which has been targeted multiple times in recent months. The refinery lies about 500 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. Fires were visible from several kilometres away, although the full extent of the damage remains unknown.
Economic pressure on Russia continues to intensify. Data shared by Reuters indicates that Russia’s state oil and gas revenue could fall to about 520 billion roubles this month, which is roughly USD 5.4 billion at current rates (1 rouble = 0.0104 USD). This represents a decline of approximately 35 percent compared with November last year, driven by cheaper global oil. Russia has significantly expanded defence spending since the invasion, making energy revenue central to keeping the war effort running.
Estimated Revenue Drop
| Month | Estimated Revenue (Roubles) | USD Equivalent |
|---|---|---|
| November 2024 | 800 billion roubles | USD 8.3 billion |
| November 2025 | 520 billion roubles | USD 5.4 billion |
Russia is also struggling to keep oil prices above the G7 price cap of USD 60 per barrel, leading Moscow to provide India with some of the deepest discounts seen since 2022. China has simultaneously raised prices on certain dual use goods exported to Russian buyers, with increases averaging 87 percent for military related components.
Domestically, Russia faces rising concern about internet outages, mobile banking disruptions, and declining trust in financial stability. This has triggered an increase in cash withdrawals similar to the period following the initial 2022 sanctions.
Meanwhile, the Lada automotive manufacturer predicts a 40 percent drop in production this year, with sales falling by 25 percent between January and October. Market data indicates a decline in Russia’s broader automotive and manufacturing capacity.
Russian forces have continued overnight attacks on Ukraine, launching nearly five hundred drones and missiles in one night alone. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 452 of them, although around 30 struck targets including residential buildings and medical facilities. In Kyiv, one missile hit a street named after the late United States senator John McCain, killing six people and injuring dozens. Local officials condemned the strikes as repeated violations of international humanitarian law.
Ukraine’s prosecutors are currently documenting 178,391 war crime cases. Kyiv argues that Russia wants a political settlement without accountability, especially as the Kremlin seeks to escape responsibility for alleged atrocities dating back many decades.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack in Pokrovsk, retaking the railway station and parts of the city centre. Both sides now rely heavily on drone warfare rather than traditional trench fighting, with troops increasingly sheltering in underground concrete structures to avoid attacks from fibre-optic controlled FPV drones.
Analysts say the remaining Ukrainian held areas of Donetsk region contain several large cities with a combined pre war population of around 400,000. These urban areas provide fortified positions that Russia has struggled to capture, resulting in high casualty rates. Ukrainian officials believe this explains why Moscow has pressed Trump to push for a political settlement that would hand over cities Russia has failed to take by force.
Concerns inside Russia continue to rise. Reports from Leningrad region say convicted prisoners recruited by Russia’s Ministry of Defence killed a convoy driver and escaped while being transported to the front, adding further uncertainty about the quality and discipline of Russian forces.
In the United States, political debate has intensified. Trump has warned that Ukraine might lose access to critical systems such as Patriot interceptors, artillery shells, intelligence support, and precision rocket ammunition if Kyiv does not accept terms favoured by Moscow. Ukrainian officials remain wary, insisting that any agreement must protect the country’s sovereignty and ensure accountability for war crimes.
