(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Ukraine has entered 2026 under continued Russian military pressure while simultaneously expanding its own long range drone campaign against Russian energy, military and logistics infrastructure, according to public statements, video evidence released by Ukrainian authorities and reporting by international media.
In his New Year address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the country had endured 1,147 days under attack and made clear that surrender remained unacceptable. He described the past year as one defined by resilience, collective effort and sacrifice, crediting Ukrainian defenders for protecting not only Ukraine but broader principles of freedom and dignity. Zelenskyy said Ukrainians continued to believe in peace while fighting and working to achieve it.
The human cost of the war remains evident. Images circulated on social media showed Ukrainian civilians, including children, reacting emotionally to the address. Ukrainian officials say that during 2025 Russia launched more than 100,000 Shahed type drones, around 60,000 guided bombs and approximately 2,400 cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities, targeting residential areas, schools, hospitals and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukraine has intensified strikes deep inside Russian territory. Ukrainian drones hit multiple oil facilities in late December and early January, including refineries at Tuapse on the Black Sea coast and Ilsky in Russia’s Krasnodar region. The Tuapse refinery, which produces about nine million tonnes of refined products annually and lies roughly 500 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, had previously been struck in November. The Ilsky refinery has also been targeted several times since 2024, with the latest strike described by Ukrainian sources as the first confirmed refinery attack of 2026.
Additional drone strikes were reported at oil depots in Rybinsk, north of Moscow, and at an oil facility in occupied Luhansk, where Ukrainian forces later released footage showing multiple drones striking storage tanks. Ukraine also published video evidence of a successful attack on the liquefied petroleum gas terminal at the port of Taman, near Crimea, showing warehouses, storage areas and loading infrastructure damaged or on fire.
According to Bloomberg, Ukraine struck more Russian energy targets in December than in any previous month of the war, including refineries, offshore platforms, port facilities and vessels linked to Russia’s so called shadow fleet. Analysts say the campaign reflects a strategic effort to undermine Russia’s export revenues and logistics capacity.
Economic data suggest mounting strain on Russia. The Kremlin reportedly budgeted for oil prices of around 70 US dollars per barrel, but discounts driven by sanctions and Ukrainian strikes have pushed the effective price for Russian crude closer to 35 dollars. By mid December, Urals crude exported from Black Sea ports had reportedly fallen to about 34 dollars per barrel. As a result, Russia’s budget deficit has expanded sharply.
Illustrative estimates based on publicly reported figures
| Indicator | Reported figure |
|---|---|
| Planned 2025 budget deficit | 1.2 trillion roubles |
| Estimated actual deficit | nearly 6 trillion roubles |
| Approximate value in US dollars | about 66 to 70 billion dollars* |
| National Wealth Fund 2021 | about 185 billion dollars |
| National Wealth Fund 2026 | about 35 billion dollars |
*Based on an exchange rate of roughly 85 to 90 roubles to the US dollar in early 2026.
Russia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe also fell by around 44 percent in 2025 to their lowest level since the 1970s, reflecting Europe’s reduced reliance on Russian energy following the invasion of Ukraine.
On the battlefield, Ukraine continues to release footage showing drone strikes against Russian air defence systems, radar installations and logistics assets. Ukrainian military officials claim that Russia lost more than 400,000 personnel in 2025, with at least 100,000 killed. Ukraine’s commander in chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, has said Russian forces are losing roughly six soldiers for every Ukrainian soldier killed, while gaining relatively small amounts of territory.
An unusual intelligence operation also drew attention. Ukrainian intelligence said it staged the fake death of a senior commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps, a unit made up of Russian citizens fighting against the Kremlin. According to Ukrainian officials, the operation allowed them to identify Russian agents and intercept a 500,000 dollar bounty allegedly offered for the commander’s assassination, funds which Ukraine says will now be redirected to its war effort.
Political tensions surrounding the war have also intensified. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin claimed Ukraine attempted a drone attack on his residence in Valdai, a claim denied by Ukraine and contradicted by local residents and independent media, who reported no air defence activity, damage or flight disruptions. United States intelligence agencies later assessed that no such attack had occurred, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal.
The claim emerged amid renewed debate in Washington over Ukraine policy. Former US president Donald Trump publicly downplayed the alleged incident, while US officials reaffirmed intelligence findings that Ukraine did not target Putin. The episode added to broader scrutiny of Russia’s credibility and its diplomatic messaging.
Despite the challenges, Ukraine has received further military support. Germany, with backing from Norway, Lithuania and Denmark, has delivered two additional Patriot air defence fire units to Ukraine, strengthening its ability to intercept ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Croatia and Romania have also joined a NATO backed initiative to help finance US weapons purchases for Ukraine.
As winter continues, Ukrainian authorities are operating mobile support centres in cities affected by power outages, providing heating, electricity, food and water to civilians. Officials say the effort is aimed at maintaining social resilience as the war enters its fourth year.
While the outlook for 2026 remains uncertain, current trends point to sustained Ukrainian pressure on Russian military and economic capacity, alongside continued international support for Kyiv.