(LONDON) – Analysts discussing future global security trends say the war in Ukraine has already produced a decisive strategic shift, leaving Russia increasingly dependent on China and facing long term consequences that are likely to shape international politics well beyond 2026.
Speaking on the Times Radio programmes Frontline and Superpowers, military and security commentators argued that Chinese influence over Russia has expanded significantly since the start of the full scale invasion of Ukraine. They highlighted China’s growing presence in the Russian Arctic and its access to Russian natural resources as a clear indicator of Moscow’s weakened position.
According to the analysts, the war could end rapidly if China chose to apply direct pressure on the Russian dictator to halt military operations. However, they said Beijing has little incentive to do so, as the conflict continues to increase Russia’s reliance on Chinese economic and political support. This dependency has turned Moscow into what one commentator described as a client state of Beijing, a situation that carries long lasting strategic costs.
As the conflict approaches its fourth full year, observers noted that Russia has failed to achieve its original objectives. These included overthrowing the government in Kyiv, fully occupying Ukraine, and preventing the expansion of NATO. Instead, Russia has advanced only limited distances in eastern Ukraine at enormous human and economic cost. Analysts compared this performance unfavourably with the Soviet Union’s rapid territorial gains against Nazi Germany during the Second World War, underscoring the scale of Russia’s strategic failure.
Despite these setbacks, experts cautioned against underestimating Russian resolve. They predicted that the war is likely to remain active through 2026 and possibly into 2027, with front lines shifting only marginally. Urban fighting is expected to continue, with Ukrainian forces repeatedly fixing Russian troops in costly battles while targeting the Russian economy and its ability to finance the war.
The discussion also addressed the role of the United States and former president Donald Trump. Analysts suggested that Trump, if re elected or influential, may lose interest in sustained engagement with Ukraine, citing past examples where he shifted focus after failing to secure quick deals. This uncertainty adds to concerns about the durability of Western political support.
Looking ahead to 2026, experts forecast an increase in Russian activities in the grey zone across Europe and the wider West. These could include cyber operations, sabotage, disinformation campaigns, and attempts to influence elections, particularly in the United Kingdom. At the same time, they predicted that incidents involving NATO and Russian forces, such as the downing of aircraft or missiles, could occur without necessarily escalating into direct conflict.
A key issue discussed was the potential use of frozen Russian assets held in Europe and other Western jurisdictions. Around 300 billion US dollars in Russian state assets remain immobilised. Analysts argued that if Europe chose to use these funds to support Ukraine, it could have a significant impact on Moscow and on Russian elites seeking the eventual return of their money.
| Issue | Current Assessment |
|---|---|
| Duration of war | Likely to continue through 2026 and possibly 2027 |
| Russian objectives | Largely unmet after four years |
| China’s role | Increasing leverage over Russia |
| NATO Russia risk | Higher chance of limited incidents |
| Frozen Russian assets | About 300 billion US dollars under debate |
Beyond Europe, commentators linked the Ukraine war to rising tensions in the Asia Pacific. They said China is closely watching Western resolve in Ukraine as it calculates its own approach to Taiwan. Military preparations by China, including expanded naval capacity and dual use civilian shipping, were cited as signs of long term planning rather than deterrence alone.
While analysts said China prefers economic pressure over direct military action, they warned that Beijing could consider force if it believes global economic disruption would accelerate a shift in world power away from the United States. In this context, perceived Western weakness in Ukraine could have far reaching consequences.