East African Canal Plan Could Transform Landlocked Trade

(JUBA) – East African countries with limited or indirect coastal access continue to face significant trade challenges. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan rely heavily on ports in Kenya and Tanzania. Frequent port strikes, high logistics costs, and political disruptions add millions of dollars to the cost of goods while slowing regional growth.

President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda highlighted the issue, saying the Indian Ocean “belongs to all” East Africans. He warned that without predictable and affordable access, landlocked countries might have to secure access by force. His comments have sparked discussion across the region, particularly in Kenya.

Tanzania’s recent election unrest and industrial action at Kenya’s ports have caused delays exceeding 40 working days over the past 18 months. Each delay adds roughly $45 to the cost of a twenty-foot container reaching Kampala, $70 for Kigali, and more than $150 for Goma in eastern Congo. The World Bank estimates these disruptions shave 2–3 percentage points off annual GDP growth for Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and eastern DRC combined.

Lake Victoria is often suggested as an alternative, but the region’s largest inland waterway currently handles very limited cargo. In 2024, the three largest lake ports combined moved only 2.1 million tonnes, while Mombasa cleared 36 million tonnes. Shallow depths, averaging 40 metres and dropping to under 10 metres near ports, prevent large bulk carriers from entering. Transhipment at Kisumu or Mwanza adds $35-45 per tonne in handling costs. Even modernised ferries cannot match the capacity of ocean-going vessels at Mombasa.

To address these limitations, some regional planners have proposed a canal linking the Indian Ocean near Mombasa or Malindi to Lake Victoria at Kisumu. The canal, following the Gregory Rift, would stretch roughly 420-480 kilometres and remain below 1,900 metres in elevation, allowing ships to sail directly to Port Bell in Uganda. Rwanda would require only a short overland connection.

Economic projections suggest a canal could reduce inland freight costs by 25–35%, generate $2.5–8 billion in annual toll revenue by 2050, and add 1.8–2.4 percentage points to GDP growth annually for landlocked states. Construction could also create 2–3 million jobs over 15 years.

Advances in cargo handling and airport logistics abroad, such as China’s Ezhou cargo airport, illustrate the potential benefits of streamlined supply chains. A similar facility in Entebbe, Kigali, or Goma could allow goods to arrive, clear customs, and reach inland cities within hours, bypassing port strikes and political disruptions entirely.

Despite improvements on Lake Victoria, the proposed canal remains the most feasible solution to provide large-vessel ocean access that is resilient to political and industrial disruptions. For South Sudanese traders, this could mean more predictable and lower cost supply chains, boosting trade competitiveness and economic resilience.