(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Military analysts say Russia’s ground offensive in Ukraine has failed to achieve the decisive breakthrough needed to secure the Donbas region. According to Professor Scott Lucas, the conflict is increasingly shaped by technology, politics and economics rather than traditional battlefield advances.
Speaking on the Times Radio programme Frontline with Kate Gerbeau, Philip Ingram and Louis Sykes, Lucas said the outcome of the war will not be decided solely on the front line.
“This is not decided only on the battlefield,” Lucas said. “It is determined through a combination of politics, economics and developments elsewhere.”
He referred to remarks made in recent interviews by General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces and now Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom.
Zaluzhnyi has argued since 2023 that the war has entered a new technological phase. According to Lucas, this shift is driven mainly by the rapid expansion of drone warfare.
He said the conflict has effectively become an arms race in drone technology along the front line. Both Ukraine and Russia have relied heavily on unmanned systems for reconnaissance and attack.
The change has altered traditional battlefield tactics. Russian forces expected to achieve breakthroughs using armoured vehicles, while Ukraine also hoped its 2023 counter offensive could succeed with armoured units.
Lucas said the growing presence of drones has exposed tanks and armoured vehicles to constant surveillance and attack.
“Even with Russia’s advantage in armour, the exposure created by drones means armoured breakthroughs are extremely difficult,” he said.
Drones are relatively inexpensive and require fewer personnel to operate because they can be controlled from positions well behind the front line. This has reduced the effectiveness of traditional armoured assaults.
The discussion also examined recent changes within the Ukrainian leadership.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reorganised his senior team by appointing Mykhailo Fedorov as defence minister and bringing intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov into a key advisory role.
Lucas said both officials have strong experience with modern technology and close working relationships with partners in the United States.
Fedorov, who previously led Ukraine’s digital transformation efforts, helped develop a national system that allows citizens to access government services through a single mobile application. The system has proved particularly important during wartime.
Budanov previously headed Ukraine’s military intelligence service and is widely regarded as an effective operational leader.
Rustem Umerov now serves as a key figure in national security discussions after moving from the defence ministry to the National Security and Defence Council.
Lucas said these officials form an effective leadership group capable of managing both domestic reforms and international partnerships.
He added that cooperation between Ukrainian officials and professional military officers in the United States remains significant.
These working relationships continue even when political tensions emerge at higher levels in Washington.
Lucas said career military officers and officials involved in monitoring a possible ceasefire have maintained productive cooperation with Ukrainian counterparts.
He also noted that Ukraine has taken steps to address corruption concerns that previously weakened public trust.
One of the most prominent cases involves former senior official Andriy Yermak, who now faces criminal charges linked to alleged corruption involving nuclear energy contracts worth up to 100 million US dollars.
Lucas said the removal of controversial figures from government has helped strengthen Ukraine’s political credibility.
Fedorov is widely viewed as a reform minded official within a defence ministry that faced several corruption scandals during the early years of Russia’s full scale invasion.
Zelenskyy has acknowledged corruption problems and publicly committed to prosecuting those responsible.
Lucas said these actions are important because Russia is attempting to undermine Ukrainian civilian morale through aerial attacks and disinformation campaigns.
Maintaining public trust in government institutions is therefore central to Ukraine’s ability to continue resisting Russian pressure.
He also noted that Ukraine must win not only the military struggle but also the political contest at home and abroad.
Another issue raised by Russian propaganda is the absence of national elections during wartime.
Ukraine currently operates under martial law, which suspends elections while the country remains under invasion.
Lucas said Kyiv has indicated it will organise presidential elections once conditions allow, particularly if a ceasefire is achieved.
Current polling suggests a competitive race could emerge between Zelenskyy and General Zaluzhnyi if elections are held.
Lucas said the prospect of open elections provides Ukraine with a political advantage over Russia, where elections are tightly controlled by the Kremlin and the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
The discussion also touched on international developments affecting the war, including cooperation with the United States on counter drone technology.
Ukraine has developed systems capable of intercepting Iranian designed Shahed drones that Russia has used widely in its air attacks.
These drones cost roughly 35000 US dollars each, while advanced air defence missiles such as the Patriot system can cost around 1 million US dollars per interceptor.
Ukrainian specialists have offered expertise in counter drone defence to international partners, including the United States and countries in the Middle East.
However Lucas cautioned that political uncertainty in Washington complicates the situation.
He criticised recent remarks by United States President Donald Trump suggesting that the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is ready to negotiate.
Lucas said there is little evidence that the Kremlin has offered meaningful concessions.
Russian officials have reportedly indicated that negotiations would require Ukraine to surrender control of the entire Donbas region.
Diplomatic efforts have also been complicated by the role of non traditional intermediaries in discussions involving Russia and the United States.
Lucas noted that real estate developer Steve Witkoff and businessman Jared Kushner have reportedly played roles in mediation efforts linked to several conflicts.
With escalating tensions in the Middle East, however, diplomatic attention has shifted away from negotiations involving Ukraine and Russia.
Lucas said the broader political environment remains fluid, but the central reality on the battlefield has not changed.
Russia’s ground offensive has failed to achieve a decisive breakthrough, leaving political strategy and international pressure as key factors shaping the future of the war.
