(KYIV) – Retired United States Army officer Ben Hodges has said Russia will continue its war against Ukraine for as long as the Kremlin believes it can still win, arguing that Moscow’s calculations depend less on battlefield gains and more on political pressure against Kyiv and its partners.
In an interview with UATV, Hodges said he was personally well but concerned about American forces engaged in combat operations in the Middle East. Turning to Ukraine, he said the central question remains whether Russia sees any reason to negotiate.
According to Hodges, the Kremlin will persist while it believes Ukraine might collapse or Western support could weaken. He said meaningful indicators of Russian readiness for talks would include sustained European backing for Kyiv and evidence that outside pressure would no longer force Ukraine to accept an unfavourable settlement.
Hodges expressed doubt that the current US administration would significantly increase support, calling that a serious mistake. He said Russia lacks the capability to break through Ukrainian defences decisively, but added that Ukraine on its own does not yet have the means to expel Russian forces completely. As a result, he expects the battlefield situation to remain broadly similar over the next year unless there is a major external change.
He warned that Russia is likely to continue strikes against Ukrainian civilian targets and infrastructure unless Kyiv strengthens air defences and targets the launch sites and production facilities behind such attacks.
Hodges argued that Ukraine’s clearest path to victory lies in undermining Russia’s ability to export oil and gas. Beyond striking refineries, he said European governments should act against vessels in Russia’s so called shadow fleet operating through the Baltic and Black Seas.
On attrition, Hodges rejected the view that Russia can sustain losses indefinitely. He said Ukraine may now be inflicting casualties at a rate higher than Russia can replace. While Russia has drawn on North Korean personnel and migrants, he noted that large scale mobilisation in major cities such as Moscow and St Petersburg has not yet occurred. A broader call up, he said, would signal greater desperation and carry domestic political risks for the Kremlin.
Hodges said peace talks, including recent discussions in Geneva, appear to be largely performative on the Russian side. He said he has seen no sign that Moscow is prepared to abandon its longstanding demands. He added that Ukrainian leaders are best placed to judge the sincerity of negotiations.
He acknowledged that conflict in the Middle East may divert Western attention and resources, including advanced munitions, but argued it also highlights Russia’s limits. Moscow, he noted, has been unable to assist allies such as Armenia, Syria or Iran, suggesting its resources are stretched by the war in Ukraine.
On the possibility of a wider conflict, Hodges said helping Ukraine defeat Russia is the most effective way to prevent further aggression in Europe. He noted that after more than a decade of war, Russia controls about 21 per cent of Ukrainian territory. While he did not rule out the risk of future attacks on NATO states such as Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, he said such action is unlikely while Russia remains heavily engaged in Ukraine.
Addressing deterrence, Hodges said it depends on demonstrated capability and political will. Doubts about whether the United States would respond to an attack could encourage miscalculation, he warned, although he believes Washington would honour its obligations.
He also described Russian grey zone operations across Europe, including cyber attacks and sabotage, as deliberate efforts to intimidate populations and disrupt infrastructure while avoiding clear attribution. Western governments, he said, must move beyond treating such incidents as criminal cases and impose tangible consequences, including action against the shadow fleet.
On whether current tensions amount to a broader world war, Hodges said labels are less important than strategy. He argued that Russia is already using a range of tools to disrupt Western societies and that governments must clearly define objectives, priorities and responses.
He concluded that while terminology may differ, the essential task is to counter Russian aggression decisively and sustain support for Ukraine.
