(KAMPALA, UGANDA) – Kampala City is hosting successive final campaign rallies by incumbent leader Yoweri Museveni and his main challenger, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, as the country heads into the January 15 presidential election.
Mr Museveni, the candidate of the ruling National Resistance Movement party, and Mr Kyagulanyi of the National Unity Platform are regarded as the leading contenders in the vote. Their decision to end their campaigns in the capital reflects the importance attached to Kampala and the surrounding districts in determining the national outcome.
Kampala is widely viewed as a key battleground. The city has an estimated daytime population of about 2.5 million people and more than 1.57 million registered voters. Together with neighbouring Wakiso District, which has about 1.46 million voters, the area represents one of the largest and most politically active voting blocs in the country.
Officials from the National Unity Platform said their final rally in the city is intended to consolidate support in Buganda, a region where the party made major gains in the last election. The ruling party, by contrast, says it hopes to use its closing rally to recover ground in Kampala, which it lost heavily to the National Unity Platform in the 2021 polls.
Emmanuel Dombo, the National Resistance Movement director for information and publicity, said Kampala was chosen to conclude the campaign in line with party tradition. He said ending the campaign in the city centre symbolised confidence and accessibility, noting that the venue at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds was close to key state institutions.
In the days leading up to the rally, supporters of Mr Museveni were seen driving through central Kampala streets, including Ben Kiwanuka Street, playing party songs and mobilising supporters. Security was visibly heightened, with roads leading to Kololo restricted and heavy deployment of police and military personnel, both in uniform and plain clothes, across the area.
On the opposition side, David Lewis Rubongoya, the secretary general of the National Unity Platform, said the party would crown its campaign with rallies in Kampala Central and later in Nansana Municipality in Wakiso District. He said the capital was chosen to celebrate what the party views as nationwide support built during the campaign period.
Mr Rubongoya said the party’s message of protest voting and political change had resonated with many voters. He said National Unity Platform supporters had turned out willingly at rallies across the country and expressed confidence ahead of polling day. He also accused the ruling party of using public resources to mobilise attendance at its events, an allegation the government has previously denied.
Mr Kyagulanyi’s programme in the capital included rallies at Kamwokya Katale playground and later at the Aga Khan Grounds on Gaddafi Road. He is due to conclude his campaign in Nansana Municipality and Busiro East Constituency before polling begins.
Kampala’s political significance is underlined by its voting history. The Electoral Commission classifies Kampala together with Buvuma, Mukono, Wakiso and Buikwe districts as the Kampala region, which together form a voting bloc of about 3.7 million people, the largest in the country. The ruling party has never won the capital in presidential elections, although it previously retained some parliamentary constituencies before losing almost all of them in 2021.
In the last election, the National Unity Platform, which had been formed only months earlier, swept the presidential vote in Kampala and won nine out of the city’s ten parliamentary seats. According to the Electoral Commission’s report, Mr Kyagulanyi secured nearly 395,000 votes in the city, far ahead of Mr Museveni, who received fewer than 29,000 votes.
This shift was repeated across much of the Buganda region, where the ruling party lost a significant number of parliamentary seats, including those held by senior ministers. The outcome made the National Unity Platform the largest opposition group in Parliament.
While previous opposition candidate Kizza Besigye consistently won votes in Kampala and Wakiso during earlier elections, he never managed to secure the broader Buganda region. That pattern changed in 2021 when Mr Kyagulanyi defeated Mr Museveni across Buganda by a margin of more than 600,000 votes.
Despite these past results, ruling party officials say they expect a turnaround. Robert Migadde, chairperson of the National Resistance Movement Buganda Parliamentary Caucus, said earlier opposition gains were influenced by sympathy votes following clashes between security forces and opposition supporters during the last campaign period. He said the political environment had since shifted in favour of the ruling party.
However, reports of confrontations between security forces and supporters of the National Unity Platform have continued during the current campaign. Incidents involving tear gas, arrests and disruptions of rallies have been reported in several regions, including Rwenzori, Gulu, Mbarara, Jinja, Mbale and parts of central Uganda.
Other presidential candidates are also concluding their campaigns in areas seen as strongholds. Nathan Nandala Mafabi of the Forum for Democratic Change is ending his campaign in Mbale, while Mugisha Muntu of the Alliance for National Transformation is concluding his in Mbarara. Both parties say their choices reflect strategic efforts to consolidate regional support.
